SnowGoose69 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, a strong Aleutian low in November is typically found with El Niños.This time we have the much intense -EPO blocking of recent Novembers combined with it. So maybe the atmosphere will follow an El Niño progression this year. But the wild card is what the NAO does in December. The default El Niño December is mild for us. So -NAO is required for colder and snowier outcomes like 2002.The NAO has been in a positive state in December since 2011. Looking ahead at the AO forecasts next 2 weeks if that verifies it seems virtually impossible we could have a positive AO winter. Without even looking I would guess there is at most 2 cases of a -2 or greater AO November having a Dec-Feb AO average positive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I know everyone hates these but they haven’t showed any snow so far this year and finally they pop up with a couple of inches this latest run! SREF I think we see a dusting at the end near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, a strong Aleutian low in November is typically found with El Niños.This time we have the much intense -EPO blocking of recent Novembers combined with it. So maybe the atmosphere will follow an El Niño progression this year. But the wild card is what the NAO does in December. The default El Niño December is mild for us. So -NAO is required for colder and snowier outcomes like 2002.The NAO has been in a positive state in December since 2011. Right, and that's why I find the end of the ensembles very interesting right now. But I've also seen some research suggest that there is a 7-8 year oscillation between + and - NAO winter regimes. We're about due if that's accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Looking ahead at the AO forecasts next 2 weeks if that verifies it seems virtually impossible we could have a positive AO winter. Without even looking I would guess there is at most 2 cases of a -2 or greater AO November having a Dec-Feb AO average positive 9 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Right, and that's why I find the end of the ensembles very interesting right now. But I've also seen some research suggest that there is a 7-8 year oscillation between + and - NAO winter regimes. We're about due if that's accurate. The key is actually verifying a -NAO during December. Expecting one since 2011 has been like betting against the house. Last 8 years have been the most positive December +NAO streak on record. So it will be interesting to see if this year can push back against the recent decadal pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Wouldn’t surprise me if today’s “warmth” over performs in some spots. Already 48 here with the sun partially obscured by clouds, forecast is 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The key is actually verifying a -NAO during December. Expecting one since 2011 has been like betting against the house. Last 8 years have been the most positive December +NAO streak on record. So it will be interesting to see if this year can push back against the recent decadal pattern. Agreed. Will be fascinating to watch everything play out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Very impressive arctic airmass in the US now. High here of 34 Wednesday is very impressive. Chicago looks to get record snow and cold as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 38 currently. Filtered sun. Low was 26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Way too early to say what's going to happen through December. Remember all the great winter outlooks last winter ? How did they turn out ? Long range is a crapshoot Our best winter forecast skill this decade has been the timing or sequence of the monthly temperature departures. But the magnitude of those departures has been a surprise. When taking the entire OKX forecast area into account, snowfall totals have also been difficult to pin down before the season started. Maybe some years demonstrated relative success in snowfall forecasts for NYC. But the extreme totals at some places like Islip have blown past expectations of winter forecasts. Seasonal forecasts have been very poor at handling the actual extremes that defined the 2010’s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Looks like a change to snow for everyone tomorrow night but no accumulations for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Looks like a change to snow for everyone tomorrow night but no accumulations for the coast. I think it would be more mid-day Tuesday as the precip pulls out the stuff at night and Tue AM is rain (coast) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think it would be more mid-day Tuesday as the precip pulls out the stuff at night and Tue AM is rain (coast) The Euro has something for everyone on Tuesday. Highs of 55-60 on Long Island early in the morning. Then a sharp cold front and the precipitation ending as snow during the day. Followed by near record cold Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 most of the snowiest Decembers had a neg ao on average...out of the 20 years 14 were cold...5 la nina...6 el nino...9 neutral...13 had a neg ao...4 were positive...3 near neutral...11 neg nao...7 positive...2 neutral...12 positive pna...6 neg pna...2 neutral...9 neg qbo...9 positive...2 around neutral... year....snowfall....big snow......ave temp....oni…...AO.......NAO....PNA....QBO... 2010.....20.1"...…….20.0"...…….32.8......-1.6....-2.631....-1.85....-1.78....10.97 2003.....19.8"...…….14.0"...…….37.6...….0.4.....0.265.....0.64.....0.86...-11.38 1960.....18.6"...…….15.2"...…….30.9...….0.1....-0.343.....0.06.....1.46...-11.36 1959.....15.8"...…….13.7"...…….38.4...….0.0....-0.042.....0.44.....0.66......8.30 2000.....13.4"...…….12.0"...…….31.1...…-0.7....-2.354....-0.58.....1.23...-14.56 2009.....12.4"...…….10.7"...…….35.9...….1.6....-3.413....-1.93.....0.34...-15.57 1995.....11.5"...……...7.9"...…….32.4...…-1.0....-2.127....-1.67.....0.92.....-4.57 1963.....11.3"...……...6.3"...…….31.2...….1.3....-1.178....-1.92....-0.08......5.48 2002.....11.0"...……...6.0"...…….36.0...….1.1....-1.592....-0.94.....1.59.....-0.50 2005...….9.7"...…......5.8"...…….35.3...…-0.8....-2.104....-0.44.....1.38...-25.04 1966...….9.1"...….…..7.1"...…….35.7...….-0.3....-1.401.....0.72.....0.09....13.26 1957...….8.7"...….…..8.0"...…….40.2...…..1.7.....0.828.....0.12....-0.43...…7.35 2013...….8.6"...….…..5.0"...…….38.5...….-0.3.....1.475.....0.95....-0.86....12.52 1961...….7.7"...….…..6.2"...…….35.5...….-0.2....-1.668....-1.48....-1.24......6.25 2017...….7.7"...….…..4.5"...…….35.0...….-1.0....-0.059.....0.88.....0.89...-18.12 1952...….7.5"...….…..4.5"...…….38.4...…..0.1....-1.827....-0.43.....0.93.....-1.65 1990...….7.2"...….…..7.2"...…….42.6...…..0.4.....1.277.....0.22....-1.32....10.68 1968...….7.0"...….…..5.2"...…….34.3...…..1.0....-0.783....-1.40....-1.44...-11.36 1993...….6.9"...….…..4.0"...…….37.3...…..0.1....-0.104.....1.56.....0.72.....-6.00 1969...….6.8"...….…..6.8"...…….33.4...…..0.6....-1.856....-0.28.....1.84......5.00 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has something for everyone on Tuesday. Highs of 55-60 on Long Island early in the morning. Then a sharp cold front and the precipitation ending as snow during the day. Followed by near record cold Wednesday. Eps is similiar 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 5 hours ago, Cfa said: Wouldn’t surprise me if today’s “warmth” over performs in some spots. Already 48 here with the sun partially obscured by clouds, forecast is 52. Ehh, a lot cloudier than expected, so I was wrong. Temps were off to the races earlier with sunshine, we would’ve easily passed the lower 50’s had it remained sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 29 minutes ago, Cfa said: Ehh, a lot cloudier than expected, so I was wrong. Temps were off to the races earlier with sunshine, we would’ve easily passed the lower 50’s had it remained sunny. Tomorrow looks pleasant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Up near Gore this weekend - expecting 6-12” in this area. Hate to have to head home before it’s all over. Gore may open Friday for those interested. Nice early start . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 hours ago, uncle W said: most of the snowiest Decembers had a neg ao on average...out of the 20 years 14 were cold...5 la nina...6 el nino...9 neutral...13 had a neg ao...4 were positive...3 near neutral...11 neg nao...7 positive...2 neutral...12 positive pna...6 neg pna...2 neutral...9 neg qbo...9 positive...2 around neutral... Yeah, only 2 solid -NAO Decembers with an El Niño since 2000. We got favorable MJO phases for a -NAO during December 2002 and 2009. Notice how the MJO mostly avoided the Maritime Continent phases. During recent Decembers, the MJO always found a way to focus in phases 4 and 5. So the MJO will be important to track as we head into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Tomorrow will feature a very mild day for November. However, much colder air is on the way. An unseasonably cold air mass will push into the region on Tuesday. Numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could challenge or set daily record low temperatures on Wednesday. Select records for November 13 are: Allentown: 18°, 1996 Baltimore: 22°, 1911 Boston: 14°, 1883 Bridgeport: 23°, 1986 Harrisburg: 21°, 1911 Islip: 24°, 2001 New York City-JFK: 25°, 1986 New York City-LGA: 26°, 1986 New York City-NYC: 24°, 1986 Newark: 24°, 1986 Philadelphia: 24°, 1996 Poughkeepsie: 16°, 2013 Scranton: 19°, 1986 White Plains: 23°, 1986 Washington, DC: 22°, 1911 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -14.64 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.176. Some of the more recent guidance shows the AO remaining strongly negative through the next two weeks. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East after mid-month. On November 9, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.566 (RMM). The November 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.534. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to generally warmer than normal conditions within a few days of November 20, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. In addition, the MJO has now spent two days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. That development reinforces the the idea from the strongly negative SOI earlier this month that December will be likely be warmer than normal. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. The mean temperature for those five cases was 39.7°. The 1981-2010 normal monthly temperature for New York City is 37.5°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 78% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 the earliest 20 degree or lower temperature in Central Park is 20 on 11/14/1905...the earliest date the max temperature was 32 or lower was also on 11/14 but in 1942...there is a chance NYC could break the record low on the 12th at midnight and break the record low on the 13th...there is a chance the max could be below freezing and the min 20 or below setting records for so early in the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 7degs. BN. Month to date is -4.2[46.8]. Should be -5.4[43.8] by the 19th. Big story will have to be the T, since virtually no Snow is showing for NYC. 51* here at 6am. (unit seems pre-programed at this T for the last 15 hours.) 53* by 8am. 57* by 11am. 58* at Noon. 59* by 2pm. 60* by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 38F this morning. Beautiful November weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Record cold in the East and record warmth in Alaska has been our new November default pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 The NAM is down to a few rain showers and maybe a flake or two at the end for tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Not going to take any chances tomorrow. Expecting a cold rain here, but I'd like to see a few flakes. I heard rumors that the roads may be salted/sprayed. Ill take the Subaru. The Corvette stays home under a cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The NAM is down to a few rain showers and maybe a flake or two at the end for tomorrow. Gfs is slightly more impressive. I would just take flurries at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 The 12z NAM has the first T of the season at the local airports on Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 I was in alaska in september It is truly a sad state of affairs Melting glaciers, low sea ice Unprecedented warm weather 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Of course the cold Will be the story with the cold front and not the precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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