MJO812 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Given how poorly the winter ended up after an early snowfall, I don't mind waiting. I'd rather not have a repeat of last year. I agree Finished with 20 last winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I agree Finished with 20 last winter. So like 95% of normal for you.. Cant have 200% of normal every year. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, snywx said: So like 95% of normal for you.. Cant have 200% of normal every year. Yea and 6 of those came in November so it probably felt worse because only 14 inches for the actual winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 This year is going to be the snowiest winter in at least 5 years in my opinion. I’m going to guess that Central Park gets 50 inches 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 The season's coldest air to date is now pushing into the region. Already, Binghamton (0.6"), Buffalo (0.6"), Rochester (0.3"), and Syracuse (0.2") have received their first measurable snowfall of winter 2019-20. Once the cold settles in, the pattern will remain generally cold for the next 10-14 days. Readings might not return to normal and then above normal across the region until around November 20 +/- a few days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was +15.84 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.498. On November 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.537 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.637. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. 80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. This data would suggest 20"-30" seasonal snowfall for the New York City area absent other variables (some of which could increase or reduce such amounts). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 81% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 ANOTHER 40 plus inches for CPK. What a special place to be, wonder why. Especially out towards Long Island. Highly anomalous but CPK averages around 50 inches anyway which is what they tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ger said: ANOTHER 40 plus inches for CPK. What a special place to be, wonder why. Especially out towards Long Island. Highly anomalous but CPK averages around 50 inches anyway which is what they tell me. it averages 28.4" since 1870...it went 15 years without a 30 inch winter from 1979 to 1993... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, uncle W said: it averages 28.4" since 1870...it went 15 years without a 30 inch winter from 1979 to 1993... How about the 2000’s what’s their average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: How about the 2000’s what’s their average? It’s like 34” since 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 38 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This year is going to be the snowiest winter in at least 5 years in my opinion. I’m going to guess that Central Park gets 50 inches Based on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Getting cold quickly here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Based on? I base my prognosis based on how warm and how wet fall is. Also where does it snow first, does it snow upstate first or here in the coast? And it also comes down to when the geese start traveling south! I think we’ll get a lot of snow and a good amount of snow cover stay. It’s also going to be frigid! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 How about the amount of acorns this year? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 59 minutes ago, uncle W said: it averages 28.4" since 1870...it went 15 years without a 30 inch winter from 1979 to 1993... And only one after the winter of 1966-67 and before 1993-94, which boggles my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: And only one after the winter of 1966-67 and before 1993-94, which boggles my mind. 1968-69 had 30.0"...1977-78 had 51"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 NYC decade snowfall averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 2010-11 to 2018-19......0.3.....1.3.....4.6....14.1......9.0.....6.6......0.6..…36.5 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 50 minutes ago, uncle W said: NYC decade snowfall averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 2010-11 to 2018-19......0.4.....1.3.....4.6....14.1......9.0.....6.6......0.6..…36.6 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 Would it be possible for you to post the yearly totals by month from 1970 to 1996? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 47 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Would it be possible for you to post the yearly totals by month from 1970 to 1996? https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 5 hours ago, uofmiami said: https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 32 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 Current temp is 32 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 10degs. BN. Month to date is -0.7[50.6]. Should be near -5.3[44.2] by the 16th. 35* here at 6am. 36* by 8am. 37* at 9am. 39* by Noon. All Snow threats seem dead for next two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 34 now. Freeze warning for tonight/Sat am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 31.8 here, first freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 31F now, everyone goes below freezing tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 23* low a few minutes ago with a dusting of snow on colder surfaces. The last hour or so of precip last night was white rain and it froze on the grass and car tops and it looks like snow so I'm calling it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 11 hours ago, snywx said: So like 95% of normal for you.. Cant have 200% of normal every year. 100% correct. People seem to forget where we live 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Below freezing at my place last night. Groundwater/small puddles froze up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 TEB reporting flurries now, anyone else seeing them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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