jm1220 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 40 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I agree. Patterns keep repeating and getting stuck. I would look for a major -PNA. I would be fairly confident to just lock in something similar to last winter. The big factor of wether this winter is a dud will be getting a period of NAO blocking. That was the difference between last years nightmare at the coast and 2018’s home run Part of last year was just bad luck. In December, storms slammed VA and the DC area with snow and got suppressed. Places to our south actually went above average for snow last winter. DCA almost tied NYC for total snow, last time that happened I can’t think of. Then the pattern flipped and went to straight cutters. The MJO got stuck in phase 4-5 and we couldn’t buy anything. Hopefully at least that can work out better this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: More frames of the cmc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 46 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Part of last year was just bad luck. In December, storms slammed VA and the DC area with snow and got suppressed. Places to our south actually went above average for snow last winter. DCA almost tied NYC for total snow, last time that happened I can’t think of. Then the pattern flipped and went to straight cutters. The MJO got stuck in phase 4-5 and we couldn’t buy anything. Hopefully at least that can work out better this year. Yeah, allot went wrong last winter. That’s why I think we at least make it to average this winter with one or two snowy periods. The big wild card is another blockbuster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 49 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Part of last year was just bad luck. In December, storms slammed VA and the DC area with snow and got suppressed. Places to our south actually went above average for snow last winter. DCA almost tied NYC for total snow, last time that happened I can’t think of. Then the pattern flipped and went to straight cutters. The MJO got stuck in phase 4-5 and we couldn’t buy anything. Hopefully at least that can work out better this year. it was an 80s type winter. I cant say it was bad luck, all I can say that it's a really stable pattern that repeats. The whole 80s decade was like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Euro says no. Not even a trace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Can't quite tell what latesr Ukie run indicates. Saw this on NE forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, David-LI said: Euro says no. Not even a trace. It did tick south. We need the front to speed up in order to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Eps is slightly east of the op for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Measurable snow on the Euro Op is largely confined to areas NW of Sussex/Warren and N of 84, with significant snows only inland of Williamsport to Albany to Bangor, ME. So, GFS/CMC are decent, but the Euro is a miss for the 95 corridor - I'd take the reverse any day of the week, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Measurable snow on the Euro Op is largely confined to areas NW of Sussex/Warren and N of 84, with significant snows only inland of Williamsport to Albany to Bangor, ME. So, GFS/CMC are decent, but the Euro is a miss for the 95 corridor - I'd take the reverse any day of the week, lol. Euro was too slow with the pattern shift on 10/31-11/2 and the GFS was too fast by like 1-2 days. It's possible we may see the same timing issues play out here. I wouldn't discount snow right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 To get more than a few mood flakes this early in the season you need a dynamic system. The surface low has trended weaker over the past day or two. Don't see anything more than a slushy inch or two at this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: To get more than a few mood flakes this early in the season you need a dynamic system. The surface low has trended weaker over the past day or two. Don't see anything more than a slushy inch or two at this time. This is a winterlike airmass so I disagree. You just need a good track at least with this system. We've seen much worse airmasses mid-winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: This is a winterlike airmass so I disagree. You just need a good track at least with this system. The airmass coming in for this weekend behind the storm is very good but by early next week we will be moderating. No fresh injection of cold air and no high to the North. The real cold air comes in as the precip is shutting off, at least for the coast. Further inland it looks better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: The airmass coming in for this weekend behind the storm is very good but by early next week we will be moderating. No fresh injection of cold air and no high to the North. The real cold air comes in as the precip is shutting off, at least for the coast. Further inland it looks better. That's if the storm takes a bad track. There will be enough cold air if the low takes a good track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: That's if the storm takes a bad track. There will be enough cold air if the low takes a good track. Take the snow goggles off. This is a few hours of light precip and that's not going to get it done. You really need a dynamic system to cool the column. Even on the GFS this sounding supports a rain/snow mix or at best white rain. You could even argue sleet or freezing rain. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Take the snow goggles off. This is a few hours of light precip and that's not going to get it done. You really need a dynamic system to cool the column. Even on the GFS this sounding supports a rain/snow mix or at best white rain. You could even argue sleet or freezing rain. Snow goggles? Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed today? No one is looking for a major snow event. You are the only person that thinks the gfs looks bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 THere is a ton of moisture that seems to get left behind near the GOM next Tuesday. This might be a cold front like today, but if the moisture can consolidate and the timing is right a stronger low can form along the stalled front and depending on if it stalls onshore of off the coast would make major differences. Looking at model output 5 days out its utter stupidity. It just shows one of numerous potential outcomes each one likely not what will actually occur. Just use the models for minor trends and as a guidance of what the players on the field are until 72-84 hours out.THere is a ton of moisture that seems to get left behind near the GOM next Tuesday. This might be a cold front like today, but if the moisture can consolidate and the timing is right a stronger low can form along the stalled front and depending on if it stalls onshore of off the coast would make major differences. Looking at model output 5 days out its utter stupidity. It just shows one of numerous potential outcomes each one likely not what will actually occur. Just use the models for minor trends and as a guidance of what the players on the field are until 72-84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 7 years ago today was the week after Sandy snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, mikem81 said: THere is a ton of moisture that seems to get left behind near the GOM next Tuesday. This might be a cold front like today, but if the moisture can consolidate and the timing is right a stronger low can form along the stalled front and depending on if it stalls onshore of off the coast would make major differences. Looking at model output 5 days out its utter stupidity. It just shows one of numerous potential outcomes each one likely not what will actually occur. Just use the models for minor trends and as a guidance of what the players on the field are until 72-84 hours out.THere is a ton of moisture that seems to get left behind near the GOM next Tuesday. This might be a cold front like today, but if the moisture can consolidate and the timing is right a stronger low can form along the stalled front and depending on if it stalls onshore of off the coast would make major differences. Looking at model output 5 days out its utter stupidity. It just shows one of numerous potential outcomes each one likely not what will actually occur. Just use the models for minor trends and as a guidance of what the players on the field are until 72-84 hours out. A stronger consolidated low would probably track more NW though. I think this may be more interesting than today but I still don't think a major snow event to the coast, I would sign up for what the GFS/CMC are showing in a heartbeat though for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 GFS ticked NW, now looks in between Euro and CMC. Probably not going to be a storm for the coast but maybe some flakes at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS ticked NW, now looks in between Euro and CMC. Probably not going to be a storm for the coast but maybe some flakes at the end. Next week's event may be just like today's. COLD FRONT with some showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 59 minutes ago, Fantom X said: 7 years ago today was the week after Sandy snowstorm Athena! The first-ever named snowstorm. Our earliest true snowstorm, got 8" here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Its wayy too early to be nailing down specifics. Just being able to track in early november alone is a bonus! Climo favors the interior for early season snowfalls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 7 hours ago, Snow88 said: Tricky forecast for next week. Hang tight. I hear ya 88 a low here a low there and a low everywhere 3 of em, timing of all this will be key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 57 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS ticked NW, now looks in between Euro and CMC. Probably not going to be a storm for the coast but maybe some flakes at the end. We needed a big Arctic high anchored over New England like we got with the snowstorm last November. The NAO trends have been moving more positive the last few days. So the SE Ridge is just a little too strong. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20181115.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Take the snow goggles off. This is a few hours of light precip and that's not going to get it done. You really need a dynamic system to cool the column. Even on the GFS this sounding supports a rain/snow mix or at best white rain. You could even argue sleet or freezing rain. How is that not an all snow sounding? Did you post the wrong image? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, mikem81 said: Next week's event may be just like today's. COLD FRONT with some showers. Right now it looks like a better setup for our NW zones than today but that could of course change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Wet flakes mixing in at top of Highland Lakes on way home. Temp 37 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Given how poorly the winter ended up after an early snowfall, I don't mind waiting. I'd rather not have a repeat of last year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Given how poorly the winter ended up after an early snowfall, I don't mind waiting. I'd rather not have a repeat of last year. What did you guys finish with down there? We were very close to average up this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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