MJO812 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: euro is a hit shows some snows for New York City and north more as you go north And then more snow at hour 216 Wintry pattern on the gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Pretty wild for ALB and NYC to have their first freeze less than a week apart. This is an extreme version of the warm October followed by a cold November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 3, 2019 Author Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, uncle W said: November snowfalls 1" or more before the 20th...winter totals... year..amount date...…..temp...snow...big snow... 1879...2.4" 11/4-5.....….38.5.....22.7".....4.0"....very mild winter for its time... 1953...2.2" 11/6...……….37.4.....15.8".....8.6"....Jan was the only cold and snowy period...otherwise quite mild... 2012...4.7" 11/7-8...…...36.9.....26.1"...11.4"....mild first half...cold and snowy second half... 1892...2.3" 11/9...……….28.4.....49.7".....9.1"....cold snowy winter... 1987...1.1" 11/11...……..34.7.....19.1".....5.8"....average temps with less snow than average... 2018...6.4" 11/15...……..36.2.....20.5".....6.4"....Nov and March did the heavy lifting...mild side... 1872...1.0" 11/16...……..28.3.....60.3"...18.0"....cold snowy winter... 1873...2.0" 11/18...……..34.0.....36.9".....7.5"....mild for its time with slightly above average snowfall... 1955...1.0" 11/19...……..32.7.....33.5"...11.6"....Cold beginning and end...Snowy March/April...cold overall... I will take 1892 and 1872 for 500 please Alex. Go big or go home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 50 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: euro is a hit shows some snows for New York City and north more as you go north Accumulating snows would be north and west of I287 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Accumulating snows would be north and west of I287 on this run. Yes but it was squashed on the 0z run. It wouldn't take much to get snow here at the coast. Need the epo to bleed in more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Pretty wild for ALB and NYC to have their first freeze less than a week apart. This is an extreme version of the warm October followed by a cold November. Hi-res euro is free here https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2019110300&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: I will take 1892 and 1872 for 500 please Alex. Go big or go home. 1872 had the first boxing day storm... 1872 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352788 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352790 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352791 1872... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-5/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Hi-res euro is free here https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2019110300&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Thanks for the link. I wonder if that is the result of the ECMWF relaxing the restrictions on sharing its products? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 EF-1 confirmed in Morris county Large trees were blown down, cars were crushed, siding was ripped off houses, and downed electrical wires littered the streets of Madison in Morris County after powerful storms tore through the state late Halloween night into early Friday morning. People on the ground suspected all this destruction came from the wrath of a tornado, and it turns out they were right. After surveying the damage on Saturday and analyzing radar images, the National Weather Service has determined an EF1 tornado touched down in Harding Township, raced through Chatham Township and Madison before lifting up in Florham Park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 the high is overhead tonight. we'll probably go below forecast again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 More times than not, when the GFS suppresses these storms it’s right. Even when every other model shows a more potent system hitting us like Icon and CMC. Euro seems to be all over the place yesterday showing a good hit today showing a southern grazer, I would believe the GFS is right here, although lately I hate this model it seems to be right on these cases. Still plenty of time for this to change and it could even be an inland hitter but that negative epo means business and chances are it will be suppressed. Just my two kopecks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Gfs always does this with storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs always does this with storm I like the 14-16th period relaxed epo but cold enough with bigger systems. Let’s see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Consistent with the 11 am observations that had been running near or above the MOS forecasts for 18z, today's high temperature exceeded the MOS guidance in Bridgeport, New York City, and Newark: Bridgeport: 56°; MOS Forecast high: 55° Islip: 54°; MOS Forecast high: 54° New York City: 54°; MOS Forecast high: 52° Newark: 55°; MOS Forecast high: 54° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 A brief period of milder conditions will develop after tomorrow. However, an even colder air mass than the current one could arrive later in the week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season. Some of the guidance continues to suggest the potential for the season's first snow in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas Thursday night or Friday. The area to the north and west of New York City and Newark, from northeastern Pennsylvania eastward into New England has perhaps the greatest chance of seeing some accumulations. A portion of this area has the potential to pick up 4" or more snow. For New York City, 14/51 (27%) of the EPS ensembles show 1" or more snow. The following are percentages of EPS ensembles showing 1" or more snow at select locations: Allentown: 33%; Binghamton: 78%; Boston: 49%; Bridgeport: 37%; Harrisburg: 22%; Newark: 20%; Poughkeepsie: 55%; Scranton: 63%; and, White Plains: 35%. All of these probabilities represent an increase from yesterday's 12z EPS. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above normal temperatures with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The possibility of a persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely. Repeated runs of the GFS have been most insistent about a persistence of the cold. Should the Arctic Oscillation go as severely negative as forecast by some of the GFS ensemble members, the probability of such a scenario of a delayed return of warmer conditions could increase. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -10.31 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.101. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On November 2, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.139 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.839. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Based on the above data, the base case remains a warmer than normal November. However, any warm anomaly will be much smaller than the October one. The ultimate outcome will depend, in large part, on the cold anomaly for the first half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Forecast low is 38 and it’s currently 39... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 49 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 49 here Anthony what does the 18 euro show for Friday mornings event if you have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 25 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Anthony what does the 18 euro show for Friday mornings event if you have it? Only goes out to 90 hours 18z eps have a few big hitters but there is still a big spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 35 minutes ago, psv88 said: Forecast low is 38 and it’s currently 39... Mine is 39 and I’m 37 already. I’m sure we’ll see 32 or lower in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Mine is 39 and I’m 37 already. I’m sure we’ll see 32 or lower in the morning. They forecast low Temps for my area like it's Manhattan...whether it's point and click or zone forcasts, it's usually the same as the urban boroughs...even the models do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 50 minutes ago, psv88 said: Forecast low is 38 and it’s currently 39... 37 here currently, forecast low is 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 38-39 in my neighborhood. Amazing how a few miles north near the sound is still in the mid 40s on wunderground. I was in Long Beach this evening, clear difference in temp from there to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Icon is a shredded mess from that incoming high. Much weaker than its last run still manages to give us some white rain! GFS is next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 GFS swing and a miss. Way south edit: I don’t think anyone posted the best rated model from earlier eps showed a snow event for everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 0z Euro is warmer for the coast compared to 12z. Pretty wide swath of 6+ goes from the Lower Hudson Valley through southern New England. Coastal areas don't see much snow if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 0z Euro also spins up a much more robust system for the 11/12-13 time frame FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Nibor said: 0z Euro is warmer for the coast compared to 12z. Pretty wide swath of 6+ goes from the Lower Hudson Valley through southern New England. Coastal areas don't see much snow if any. Same as the eps Gfs is an outlier atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 Current temp down to 34 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 Current temp now down to 32 here. First freezing temperature of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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