Rtd208 Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Getting closer to winter, we will see any snow in November?? Post them here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 . 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 November has been the only fall month this decade able to generate any cold in our area. The count is 5 colder than normal Novembers to 4 warmer since 2010. So the trough coming east with colder temperatures early in the month matches this new fall climo. But can the colder pattern persist beyond the early part of the month? 2010’s November temperature departures Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA 2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7 2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3 2016...+2.9...+2.1...+4.1 2015...+5.2...+5.1...+5.0 2014...-2.9....-2.4....-2.9 2013...-2.4....-2.4....-2.8 2012...-3.5....-3.8....-3.2 2011..+4.1...+4.2...+3.8 2010..+0.5....+0.2...+1.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: November has been the only fall month this decade able to generate any cold in our area. The count is 5 colder than normal Novembers to 4 warmer since 2010. So the trough coming east with colder temperatures early in the month matches this new fall climo. But can the colder pattern persist beyond the early part of the month? 2010’s November temperature departures Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA 2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7 2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3 2016...+2.9...+2.1...+4.1 2015...+5.2...+5.1...+5.0 2014...-2.9....-2.4....-2.9 2013...-2.4....-2.4....-2.8 2012...-3.5....-3.8....-3.2 2011..+4.1...+4.2...+3.8 2010..+0.5....+0.2...+1.1 That looks like stale cold air to me. Nothing like the departures they are getting out west. Better question might be when will the city get its first freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That looks like stale cold air to me. Nothing like the departures they are getting out west. Better question might be when will the city get its first freeze? During the 1st week of November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Quick guideline numbers for Novembers around here: 850mb T goes from +5C to 0C and the 500mb Heights from 5680m to 5600m during the course of the month. These would the Normals as the month progresses. For the first half of November we range from +15C to -15C on those 850mb. Ts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: That looks like stale cold air to me. Nothing like the departures they are getting out west. Better question might be when will the city get its first freeze? If the EPS is correct about the early month cold pattern, then perhaps NYC gets the first freeze by the 15th. This has been the case during the last 2 years. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-23 (2017) 11-06 (2012) 215 Mean 04-01 11-21 234 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233 2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223 2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255 2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 6 hours ago, bluewave said: If the EPS is correct about the early month cold pattern, then perhaps NYC gets the first freeze by the 15th. This has been the case during the last 2 years. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-23 (2017) 11-06 (2012) 215 Mean 04-01 11-21 234 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-10 (2011) 255 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233 2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 31 223 2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255 2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251 that's a very impressive cold signal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 November in NYC...decade averages and extremes... 1971-2000 normal's...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4" Average temperature... decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall... 1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9" 1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8" 1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3" 1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3" 1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2" 1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1" 1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2" 1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6" 1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5" 1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3" 1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3" 1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6" 1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3" 2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace 2010's.....47.5.....52.8.....43.9.....70.0.....26.8.....74.....15.....3.48".....1.3"...2010-2018 1870- 2009........46.2........................….69.7.....25.6.......................3.55".....0.8" 1980- 2009........48.0........................….71.5.....27.5.......................4.05".....0.3" Warmest Novembers... 52.8 in 2015 52.7 in 2001 52.5 in 1979 52.4 in 1948 52.3 in 1975 51.9 in 2011 51.9 in 2006 51.9 in 1994 51.9 in 1931 51.5 in 1902 51.1 in 2009 50.8 in 1999 Coldest... 37.0 in 1873 38.8 in 1871 38.9 in 1880 39.0 in 1882 39.3 in 1875 39.7 in 1901 40.3 in 1869 wettest... 12.41" in 1972 12.26" in 1977 10.00" in 1889 8.90" in 1988 8.24" in 1963 8.09" in 1985 7.62" in 2018 Driest... 0.34" in 1976 0.60" in 1931 0.71" in 1908 0.71" in 1890 0.86" in 1917 0.90" in 1933 Highest Temperatures... 84 11/01/1950 83 11/02/1950 81 11/01/1974 80 11/15/1993 79 11/02/1982 79 11/03/2003 78 11/07/1938 78 11/05/1961 78 11/04/1975 78 11/03/1990 Coldest temperatures... _7 11/30/1875 11 11/30/1872 12 11/27/1932 12 11/30/1929 13 11/22/1880 14 11/23/1880 14 11/24/1880 14 11/29/1875 15 11/23/2018... Lowest monthly max... 60 in 1878 60 in 1893 60 in 1901 60 in 1904 61 in 1976 61 in 1947 61 in 1907 61 in 1884 Highest monthly min... 36 in 2011 36 in 1998 35 in 2006 35 in 2009 34 in 1902 34 in 1963 34 in 1975 34 in 2001 34 in 2010 34 in 2016 33 in 1907 33 in 1948 33 in 1985 Greatest monthly snowfall... 19.0" in 1898 14.0" in 1882 12.8" in 1938 ..6.4" in 2018 _6.3" in 1892 _5.0" in 1896 Biggest snowfalls... 10.0" 11/26-27/1898 9.0" 11/29/30/1882 est... 8.8" 11/24-25/1938 6.4" 11/15/2018 6.0" 11/30/1898 5.0" 11/29-30/1896 4.7" 11/07-08/2012 4.7" 11/22-23/1989 4.0" 11/29-30/1892 4.0" 11/26-27/1938 3.7" 11/26/1882 est... 3.7" 11/29-30/1945 3.0" 11/24/1898 3.0" 11/30/1967 2.9" 11/30/1995 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 A strong cold front was approaching the region. Its arrival could be marked by a strong squall line. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains considerable uncertainty about the second half of the month. The persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -2.26 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.442. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. Based on the September-October data and the guidance for November, Fall 2019 is on track for a mean temperature near 59.0° in New York City. On October 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.965 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.955. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. The October 16-31 period had a mean temperature that was 3.3° above normal. October 2019 finished with a mean temperature of 59.9° (3.0° above normal), which was slightly higher than what had been implied by the MJO. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one. The initial sensitivity analysis suggests that New York City has an implied 40% probability of having a warmer than normal November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 The first 8 days of November are averaging 48degs., or 1deg. BN. ( used 70/46 for today). 46.8* at 6am. 52.7* by 1pm. (got down to 45.7* near 7am.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2019 Author Share Posted November 1, 2019 Current temp down to 46 Picked up 0.18" of rain since midnight, storm total 0.62" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Northwest Burbs could get to freezing the next 3 nights and widespread 20s lows on guidance for next Friday and Saturday that's a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Wondering if guidance will Trend colder with the very impressive EPO / wpo block and piece of polar vortex rotating into Southern Canada. does anybody have record lows for the November 8th 9th time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 43F Had to take the flag down 2 mins after it went up ... quite windy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 26 minutes ago, binbisso said: Northwest Burbs could get to freezing the next 3 nights and widespread 20s lows on guidance for next Friday and Saturday that's a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Wondering if guidance will Trend colder with the very impressive EPO / wpo block and piece of polar vortex rotating into Southern Canada. does anybody have record lows for the November 8th 9th time frame For White Plains: 11/8 22°, 1960 11/9 20°, 1971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Pin novi unpin oct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For White Plains: 11/8 22°, 1960 11/9 20°, 1971 Thank you the GFS has White Plains very close to the record on the 9th to CMC a little warmer at 25 degrees I know the GFS has a cold bias but with the way the 500 MB pattern looks I think there's a chance at least for some of the area. I'm always impressed with record lows in this warm climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 1 hour ago, binbisso said: Northwest Burbs could get to freezing the next 3 nights and widespread 20s lows on guidance for next Friday and Saturday that's a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Wondering if guidance will Trend colder with the very impressive EPO / wpo block and piece of polar vortex rotating into Southern Canada. does anybody have record lows for the November 8th 9th time frame NYC will go below freezing next Fri/Sat and many places, maybe even the city, could see lows in the mid to lower 20s. Most suburbs will see 30-32F this weekend/Monday morning. Very good agreement from GEFS/EPS on next Fri/Sat cold shot. Stark contrast 1st half of Nov vs October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Serious cold plunging through the Plains. Austin TX got down to 25 last night at the airport (a more rural setting but 20 mins from downtown). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 On 10/29/2019 at 6:27 PM, forkyfork said: that's a very impressive cold signal Our default colder November -EPO pattern since 2013 is right on schedule. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Serious cold plunging through the Plains. Austin TX got down to 25 last night at the airport (a more rural setting but 20 mins from downtown). Crazy that places like Dallas and San Antonio got their first freeze before we did! Atlanta will likely also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Ef2 confirmed last night near Philly. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=phi&issuedby=PHI&product=PNSSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Our default colder November -EPO pattern since 2013 is right on schedule. But will it flip is the question. If the atmosphere acts more like a Nino then December could be mild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Looks like we might get our first below freezing day next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, David-LI said: Looks like we might get our first below freezing day next weekend. Before next weekend, and right after that we can get snow. Watch for models for snow for next Friday into the weekend. Very decent pattern coming up. Low sun angle, cold rushing in and decent amount of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Colder air now covers the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, this initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions within a few days. An even colder air mass could arrive during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The possibility of a persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely. The more likely scenario involves the large area of much above normal height anomalies covering the Gulf of Alaska shifting toward the Bering Strait and then into eastern Siberia over the next two weeks. The disappearance of the negative EPO will then set the stage for a milder regime to establish itself over much of the CONUS. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was +2.61 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.272. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 31, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.379 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.970. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 Current temp down to 37 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Coldest morning thus far, 40 degrees going down to 38! Very crisp out here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 39 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Coldest morning thus far, 40 degrees going down to 38! Very crisp out here... Check out the gefs and eps. Very interesting solutions for next wekeends storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 The next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or about 4degs. BN. 43.5* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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