Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Interior November on the GFS suite of guidance. What’s the FV3 got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 This will be three storms in a row with unnecessary hype. The Novembah Tricectah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This one has legs because we are not reliant on Judah’s phantom Strat Warming that takes 4 months to have a downstream effect. First time I've read Judah's name this season. It felt refreshing not having to read about snow advance in Verkhoyansk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What’s the FV3 got? It's all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's all the same. Lol. Hes trying to get everyone else to call it the FV3 but nobody is falling for it. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Should change his name to FV3inTolland 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The other important takeaway is that we are seeing signs from multiple guidance for a blocky pattern developing. Good news for you and I who live in the mid atlantic. Did we just get punted into the Mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol. Hes trying to get everyone else to call it the FV3 but nobody is falling for it. Perhaps call it POS? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Snow globe day. NEK must be seeing some good snow today, been like a stable wave all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Snowy here too. Wasn't expecting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 WAA FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: This reminded me to pull up yesterdays departure. Pulled off a -19.4F. So close, so close. Yeah, Only -25 departure here............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Snow globe day. NEK must be seeing some good snow today, been like a stable wave all day. Vicarious congrats, @Ginx snewx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Wintry feel 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Diane must love that climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You need to keep in mind that the negative QBO is not descending until like February, which could factor in... Huh... I thought the easterly phase had already set in. Could of swore I read that somewhere... Well, in any case, the solar minimum stuff is strongly correlated with SSW, too. And seeing as the QBO is in the process of differentiating negative, that may be just as suggestive/important on that side of the contribution... I just just checked ESRL and it's 7 and change in October, having dropped from 14/May... It seems it's quelling off pretty quickly. The other thing we may want to consider is "thresholds" - I've read countless times that positive phase implies this and negative phase implies that. Point being, +7 doesn't appear to be "strong" comparing the billions of months in that file where 1/3 of them are over (+)(-)15; I'm just wonder if strength in either phase correlate differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, alex said: Snowy here too. Wasn't expecting it Seeder-feeder man, busting the forecast a bit. That deck around 8000-10000 ft is dropping enough ice crystals into the orographic clouds to produce snow showers when they otherwise might not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Seeder-feeder man, busting the forecast a bit. That deck around 8000-10000 ft is dropping enough ice crystals into the orographic clouds to produce snow showers when they otherwise might not. Expect the unexpected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Huh... I thought the easterly phase had already set in. Could of swore I read that somewhere... Well, in any case, the solar minimum stuff is strongly correlated with SSW, too. And seeing as the QBO is in the process of differentiating negative, that may be just as suggestive/important on that side of the contribution... I just just checked ESRL and it's 7 and change in October, having dropped from 14/May... It seems it's quelling off pretty quickly. The other thing we may want to consider is "thresholds" - I've read countless times that positive phase implies this and negative phase implies that. Point being, +7 doesn't appear to be "strong" comparing the billions of months in that file where 1/3 of them are over (+)(-)15; I'm just wonder if strength in either phase correlate differently. Oh, all valid points. Its far from an exact science....totally debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 @Typhoon Tip....only point I will disagree with is that its quelling off quickly, which is my main point. Its been very slow. Take a look at the rate of descent in some other seasons in that tabular data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Huh... I thought the easterly phase had already set in. Could of swore I read that somewhere... Well, in any case, the solar minimum stuff is strongly correlated with SSW, too. And seeing as the QBO is in the process of differentiating negative, that may be just as suggestive/important on that side of the contribution... I just just checked ESRL and it's 7 and change in October, having dropped from 14/May... It seems it's quelling off pretty quickly. The other thing we may want to consider is "thresholds" - I've read countless times that positive phase implies this and negative phase implies that. Point being, +7 doesn't appear to be "strong" comparing the billions of months in that file where 1/3 of them are over (+)(-)15; I'm just wonder if strength in either phase correlate differently. This...I think that is a great point with strong validity. Obviously...here major...perhaps biggest driver here is the structure of the QBO. *cue in Sam Lillo with his amazing MQI data* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Expect the unexpected? Question everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @Typhoon Tip....only point I will disagree with is that its quelling off quickly, which is my main point. Its been very slow. Take a look at the rate of descent in some other seasons in that tabular data... I think halving it's value just since May is quick relative to that range its self... I mean 14 to 7, with one month in there where it dropped from 14 to 10.. I don't know if that means it can't flop to +2 than -1 soon enough is all. I don't know how fast that is as typical behavior goes - no, but I said it "seems" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: Did we just get punted into the Mid Atlantic? We not part of NE apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We not part of NE apparently. plate tectonics hard at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We not part of NE apparently. According to most Massholes none of Connecticut is actually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: According to most Massholes none of Connecticut is actually! Most are good people just misunderstood...must be the accent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Most are good people just misunderstood...must be the accent. Aye Ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Should change his name to FV3inTolland I bet Eek could code it so that becomes his name and he can't change it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This...I think that is a great point with strong validity. Obviously...here major...perhaps biggest driver here is the structure of the QBO. *cue in Sam Lillo with his amazing MQI data* I wish he was still posting in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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