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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Meh, AAM is not a game changer IMO. 

Isn't it useful to try and gauge how the jet stream may behave? 

I'm trying to find just a few key teleconnections/forcings to focus on and do extensive research into...instead of just doing little on the dozens and dozens and dozens of variables that exist. Do the extensive research on a select few and then branch out. What would be a select few in your opinion to focus on?  

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22 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Is the Euro at least snow for the Ski resorts?

Euro handled the whole long wave trough a bit different . It had the Second piece of energy rounding the base and focused on the Second coastal storm. The euro hit was 7 days out ! (Hr 168) . Some other models are bringing the first coastal closest Monday and effecting is and then not much ammo left after that and a weaker wellll east second storm of no consequence 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro handled the whole long wave trough a bit different . It had the Second piece of energy rounding the base and focused on the Second coastal storm. The euro hit was 7 days out ! (Hr 168) . Some other models are bringing the first coastal closest Monday and effecting is and then not much ammo left after that and a weaker wellll east second storm of no consequence 

Crazy uncle was interesting, hard to decipher precip type but it was sending precip into sub 32 air around day 5. Models will settle on a primary next couple of days.

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53 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Does anyone have information or some principles or criteria for how to determine if the water leftover on a road surface from rain or snowmelt with refreeze before it evaporates?  I can't seem to find much online for guidelines. 

Biggest factor I found over the years was RH...you basically need close to full saturation to get refreeze on untreated roads and preferably for several hours. Like just an hour or two may not really be enough to make it bad. Even something like we had the other day with the anafront changeover was almost too marginal...we had an hour or two maybe with High RH and below freezing temps but the strong NW winds were actually keeping RH a bit lower than optimal. Like it was snowing at 31/25 or something and some of that standing water was evaporating and then everything ended quickly and we dried out really really quickly.

By far the best way to get flash freezes around here are the cold tucks from the NE...usually there's still precip going on when that happens...even if light...and we don't get that downslope drying. But obvioisly a more organized anafront can get it done...3/8/05 has kind of always been the poster child for that. 

 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Isn't it useful to try and gauge how the jet stream may behave? 

I'm trying to find just a few key teleconnections/forcings to focus on and do extensive research into...instead of just doing little on the dozens and dozens and dozens of variables that exist. Do the extensive research on a select few and then branch out. What would be a select few in your opinion to focus on?  

That is GFS based and also depends on MJO tracking.  If you can grab euro AAM, it would help.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Biggest factor I found over the years was RH...you basically need close to full saturation to get refreeze on untreated roads and preferably for several hours. Like just an hour or two may not really be enough to make it bad. Even something like we had the other day with the anafront changeover was almost too marginal...we had an hour or two maybe with High RH and below freezing temps but the strong NW winds were actually keeping RH a bit lower than optimal. Like it was snowing at 31/25 or something and some of that standing water was evaporating and then everything ended quickly and we dried out really really quickly.

By far the best way to get flash freezes around here are the cold tucks from the NE...usually there's still precip going on when that happens...even if light...and we don't get that downslope drying. But obvioisly a more organized anafront can get it done...3/8/05 has kind of always been the poster child for that. 

 

Thanks, and I'm guessing light winds are important, too? Or not as important as RH? 

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