Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 12.7for the low. No warmth as far as the eye can see unless 40’s are considered warm. Just a great BN November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Are there any sites which have AAM plots? I know there are a few groups who have been working to construct them after the individuals at the PSD retired. WDT used to host them but guess they don't anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep, this forum bleeds when it rains out east. Lol . Seriously now that storm modeled is a beast worst in the east. That will leave a mark. I'm kidding lol. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Is the Euro at least snow for the Ski resorts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Is the Euro at least snow for the Ski resorts? Pivotal weather.com is your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Agree but it's still nice seeing these type of storms. Yeah, same nice as seeing D7 models show a cat. 3 into LI, also. One run and done nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 It's real marginal at 925. Beware the weenie ptype algorithm on euro etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's real marginal at 925. Beware the weenie ptype algorithm on euro etc. If this were another month we would be discussing blizzard warnings but alas. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 I've come across this place on twitter and a few other weather forums. However, when I do the username and password it just says your connection is not private. Can someone see if this works for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I've come across this place on twitter and a few other weather forums. However, when I do the username and password it just says your connection is not private. Can someone see if this works for them? Meh, AAM is not a game changer IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's real marginal at 925. Beware the weenie ptype algorithm on euro etc. Thats a PF dream storm with days and days of upslope to follow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thats a PF dream storm with days and days of upslope to follow Hold me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 I have to say this is the best mid November pattern going forward that I can remember in a long while. Factoring the coastals in that assessment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Two weeks would make a difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I've come across this place on twitter and a few other weather forums. However, when I do the username and password it just says your connection is not private. Can someone see if this works for them? Yeah i have the same problem when I tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You are more Mid Atlantic near NYC. Why so bitter? You had a historic yet unsustainable run...time to pass the torch to your left and enjoy the slop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 The Pacific is sort of in question. I feel like the PNA region is waffling. That makes a difference for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Why so bitter? You had a historic yet unsustainable run...time to pass the torch to your left and enjoy the slop. You could obviously see I'm joking. May you get buried this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Meh, AAM is not a game changer IMO. Isn't it useful to try and gauge how the jet stream may behave? I'm trying to find just a few key teleconnections/forcings to focus on and do extensive research into...instead of just doing little on the dozens and dozens and dozens of variables that exist. Do the extensive research on a select few and then branch out. What would be a select few in your opinion to focus on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Is the Euro at least snow for the Ski resorts? Euro handled the whole long wave trough a bit different . It had the Second piece of energy rounding the base and focused on the Second coastal storm. The euro hit was 7 days out ! (Hr 168) . Some other models are bringing the first coastal closest Monday and effecting is and then not much ammo left after that and a weaker wellll east second storm of no consequence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah i have the same problem when I tried. I'll try and see if I can gather some info from the twitter world after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If this were another month we would be discussing blizzard warnings but alas. D7 , we’ll see. That would be hunter mountain road trip part deux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 Still 18 here after a 17 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro handled the whole long wave trough a bit different . It had the Second piece of energy rounding the base and focused on the Second coastal storm. The euro hit was 7 days out ! (Hr 168) . Some other models are bringing the first coastal closest Monday and effecting is and then not much ammo left after that and a weaker wellll east second storm of no consequence Crazy uncle was interesting, hard to decipher precip type but it was sending precip into sub 32 air around day 5. Models will settle on a primary next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Crazy uncle was interesting, hard to decipher precip type but it was sending precip into sub 32 air around day 5. Models will settle on a primary next couple of days. I think 2-3 weeks later and it’s 2003 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You could obviously see I'm joking. May you get buried this year. I don’t want to steal yours, no theft. I kid. This forum would bleed if tracks run over EMA and thus unbearable to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 53 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Does anyone have information or some principles or criteria for how to determine if the water leftover on a road surface from rain or snowmelt with refreeze before it evaporates? I can't seem to find much online for guidelines. Biggest factor I found over the years was RH...you basically need close to full saturation to get refreeze on untreated roads and preferably for several hours. Like just an hour or two may not really be enough to make it bad. Even something like we had the other day with the anafront changeover was almost too marginal...we had an hour or two maybe with High RH and below freezing temps but the strong NW winds were actually keeping RH a bit lower than optimal. Like it was snowing at 31/25 or something and some of that standing water was evaporating and then everything ended quickly and we dried out really really quickly. By far the best way to get flash freezes around here are the cold tucks from the NE...usually there's still precip going on when that happens...even if light...and we don't get that downslope drying. But obvioisly a more organized anafront can get it done...3/8/05 has kind of always been the poster child for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Isn't it useful to try and gauge how the jet stream may behave? I'm trying to find just a few key teleconnections/forcings to focus on and do extensive research into...instead of just doing little on the dozens and dozens and dozens of variables that exist. Do the extensive research on a select few and then branch out. What would be a select few in your opinion to focus on? That is GFS based and also depends on MJO tracking. If you can grab euro AAM, it would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think 2-3 weeks later and it’s 2003 again. Hopefully it can reload. Nobody wants to wait for another backend winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Biggest factor I found over the years was RH...you basically need close to full saturation to get refreeze on untreated roads and preferably for several hours. Like just an hour or two may not really be enough to make it bad. Even something like we had the other day with the anafront changeover was almost too marginal...we had an hour or two maybe with High RH and below freezing temps but the strong NW winds were actually keeping RH a bit lower than optimal. Like it was snowing at 31/25 or something and some of that standing water was evaporating and then everything ended quickly and we dried out really really quickly. By far the best way to get flash freezes around here are the cold tucks from the NE...usually there's still precip going on when that happens...even if light...and we don't get that downslope drying. But obvioisly a more organized anafront can get it done...3/8/05 has kind of always been the poster child for that. Thanks, and I'm guessing light winds are important, too? Or not as important as RH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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