Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: And what's going to happen if it does get an event correct ? You do know the euro busts at times, right ? Euro does bust sure. But its not always wrong like the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol . It did nothing of the sort. You will not find one met here that will agree with you on that. It had no storm on the one last week and had this one yesterday Ots You're behind the times bro - it was flat out pointed out empirically with charts by your's truly. And that I should have to say this ... concurred by other meteorologists. It did everything of the sort and you are flat wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So that's a whopper Noreaster there on the 18z GFS ... It's probably close enough at this point to figure much of the QPF is slush and blue urinal cake[\b]. It's clearly cold enough at 850 mb and given those parametric layouts there's no way that's just rain on the west arc/limb of that sucker's circulation... You're probably talking the blue bomb proper on that run. There's just one small caveat tho - it's the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It does a bit higher up. But imo low levels are still a little too warm due to marine influence. It doesn’t handle CAD well at all. In this case we lose a lot of the cold anyways, but it still may have low level issues. I finally tracked down that link Dendy gave out a couple weeks ago. Looks like the GFS has a cold bias at all levels. Here’s the 1000mb level...what the hell is up with the CMC/GGEM too, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 I I just stumbled across the northern hemisphere snow cover map...and wow! We’re looking mighty wintry for 11/13. That’s a wintry look on 1/13 for that matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 The GFS (FV3 latest version) sucks donkey balls. GEFS suck donkey balls. The euro is good. EPS is good. The end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Northern Maine gets crushed like always fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: fyp I really need to move up there. Maybe they need cops over there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 It’s just good to see coastals this close to met winter. Southern Jet is in play after a bone dry late summer early fall stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: I really need to move up there. Maybe they need cops over there. They do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 The 12z Euro got Midcoast Maine east with some precip with that offshore low so it really was not that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The euro was not far off from the gfs solution. So it's plausible. I would still hedge toward something less exciting at d7 but it's something to watch. The overall pattern does not scream snowstorm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I really need to move up there. Maybe they need cops over there. When you’re chasing bad guys do you have the gfs rolling in the background on your laptop? Like...pull some dude over for speeding but it takes you 30min to create the ticket because you’re really clicking the next frames on tropical tidbits. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I finally tracked down that link Dendy gave out a couple weeks ago. Looks like the GFS has a cold bias at all levels. Here’s the 1000mb level...what the hell is up with the CMC/GGEM too, lol. Yep it does. But for us, I was just speaking more of the CAD issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: The GFS (FV3 latest version) sucks donkey balls. GEFS suck donkey balls. The euro is good. EPS is good. The end. Sssshh. Freud thinks it’s performed well lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When you’re chasing bad guys do you have the gfs rolling in the background on your laptop? Like...pull some dude over for speeding but it takes you 30min to create the ticket because you’re really clicking the next frames on tropical tidbits. I bet if it looks to whiff, The dude gets his car searched.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yep it does. But for us, I was just speaking more of the CAD issues How you feel the FV3 performed for the last 2 storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How you feel the FV3 performed for the last 2 storms? Other than the one burp run, I thought euro did ok with the first mix storm that got NNE. The gfs for days was skies clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 And the euro caught onto this cold shit this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I bet if it looks to whiff, The dude gets his car searched.... But if the euro says game on its “ be careful sir-have a nice day” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep it does. But for us, I was just speaking more of the CAD issues Yep. Even after the rest of the cold bias, it is still awful in CAD and marine influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: The overall pattern does not scream snowstorm to me. It's definitely extremely marginal. It would take a lot of things to go right to get legit snow out of the d7 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Other than the one burp run, I thought euro did ok with the first mix storm that got NNE. The gfs for days was skies clear. Let’s see how Tip counteracts. He swears FV3 schooled Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s see how Tip counteracts. He swears FV3 schooled Euro I’ll be honest in that I wasn’t feverishly comparing both models. I was just speaking anecdotally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll be honest in that I wasn’t feverishly comparing both models. I was just speaking anecdotally. GFS was garbage around d5-7 range but I feel like once we got to d3-4, GFS beat it as it was showing that uglier look with the low along the front looping up through interior SNE and the euro finally latched on once inside of 60h. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 The euro wasn't a lock on the last two, It waffled more then i liked seeing on a few runs, And that was inside day 5 also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS was garbage around d5-7 range but I feel like once we got to d3-4, GFS beat it as it was showing that uglier look with the low along the front looping up through interior SNE and the euro finally latched on once inside of 60h. Yeah that’s what I recall. It went from way south to way north and then stuck with that solution with a little wavering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Holy ballz it is cold. My car said 3F arriving home. I’d think we get 0F tonight. Some PWS are already below zero just NE of here into NEK of VT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Clouds may help from absolute moon like temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Clouds may help from absolute moon like temps. My heating bill will not be favorable this month at this point. I cannot believe how warm/humid it was for Halloween, less than 2 weeks ago it was dews in the mid-60s....and now there’s 5” of dense snow on the ground and the temperature is sloshing around near 0F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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