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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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I think the key is to either rid or devote to one of those in that double wave structure of that L/W migration through the E late in the mid/ext range. 

This isn't an issue in the GGEM or the Euro or the GFS ... it's endemic to all of them. And there's a small bit of destructive wave interference there.. If either becomes dominant, would be better for storm enthusiasts. 

Either way, the profile has cooled again ... that encouraging. At mere fractions but you can see that latter of the two systems is now cold enough to blue-job the region...albeit the low has deepened slightly too far E in the GFS - a distinction hardly worth concerning over at D7/8 range.    

There's something to definitely watch in there.  There is a presentation of it in some form or the other in most of the ensemble members of these model types.  It's also timed well with this run-around MJO phased 8-1-2 that's been in the progs in all guidance envelopes for days.  It's interesting how that is the case, and in the last two days or so, the lost -EPO is transitioning into more of a +PNA look - I think someone mentioned that earlier?    

I'm just not sure a moderate strength MJO is actually forcing "as much" as it would in DJFM ..because of the Hadley Cell expansion issue.  If that's relaxed though, leverage away. Be that as it may, the +PNAP structure is there regardless.

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7 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I could never shoot anything but I’d be foolish and a hypocrite not to understand the necessity 

Take away the provisional access eases of this bubble-illusion of security, post Industrial Revolution, and you'll change your mind real, real quick.  Right around day three of having eaten lawn grass -

But I appreciate your seeing the hypocrisy of the latter, too.

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Pretty interesting how much the euro and the GFS differ on the PAC side of things...pretty solid agreement regarding the configuration of the ATL. At least there is a window to get something potentially decent (actually perhaps two opportunities). What scares me with the Euro is if we miss out on a storm potential we're just going to get nailed with cold straight out of the Arctic or even Siberian origin :x 

image.thumb.png.5e440f0a1892e0dfb2fd9b0104c4b54a.png

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve killed 3 deer by car the past two years commuting to and from work. I’m not a hunter but I kinda feel like one behind the wheel.

I've killed 3 with vehicles this time of year. 
#1 was 11/12/96 just south of MHT as I was taking 4 HHS students back to school in Dublin, NH.  Had my foot on the way toward the brake (light ahead turned yellow) when  deer!-thud-gone, in no more time than it takes to read those 3 words.  Small deer, probably that spring's fawn, yet $2,900 damage to our Subaru.  No doubt dead but 150 miles from home, pitch dark and water running everywhere from the morning's SE gale/deluge.

#2 came on a late October Sunday morning (Maine firearms season opening the following Saturday) in 2008 when a 6-8 pt buck rammed the side of our Outback at speed, $1,900 this time.  Neighbor with scanner called the police and got permission to look for it, found it dead about 500' from point of impact.

#3 was 6 years later and maybe 2 miles south of #2 on the same road, evening of last Sunday in November, day after the firearms season closed.  Doe popped out in front, I slowed to about 15 but hit broadside, shattering the plastic grill into dozens of shards - $1,600 this go-round.  Pickup was drivable and the deer ran into the woods.  The State trooper who came to the house (no cell, so had to call from home) said I could have the critter if I could find it, so I went back the next morning.  Easy to track in 4-5" SN left from the 13" dump 4 days earlier, found a nice doe with small velvet-covered antlers about 500' from the road.  Pprobably ended up with 90% of the meat, the rest being bloodshot (impact damage) and discarded by the butcher.  Even with our collision insurance, the deductible made it the most costly deer meat ever to reach our freezer.  :o

(Note:  That's the 3rd hairy-horned doe I've seen.   Shot one on T18R12 NW of Allagash Village in 1982 - gamiest deer we've eaten, though the 2014 roadkill tasted just fine - and in 1983 a co-worker bagged one about 15 miles SW from where mine fell.)

Still blowing hard in Augusta, struggling to get much past 20.

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Pretty interesting how much the euro and the GFS differ on the PAC side of things...pretty solid agreement regarding the configuration of the ATL. At least there is a window to get something potentially decent (actually perhaps two opportunities). What scares me with the Euro is if we miss out on a storm potential we're just going to get nailed with cold straight out of the Arctic or even Siberian origin :x 

image.thumb.png.5e440f0a1892e0dfb2fd9b0104c4b54a.png

To me, it is more amazing the agreement. I remember in HS and college in the 90's looking at the crude PSC images for the EC, MRF/AVN/GFS etc. and you'd be lucky to see agreement like that D3 or D5. Heh

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Probably really 33F because of rounding, but yeah...lol. BVY 30F and GHG 32F. Probably a legit 34F at OWD too with a half hour of +1C obs. So the usual suspects look overly warm.

BOX acknowledged OWD and BED too. But their hands are tied. This is ridiculous. 

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

To me, it is more amazing the agreement. I remember in HS and college in the 90's looking at the crude PSC images for the EC, MRF/AVN/GFS etc. and you'd be lucky to see agreement like that D3 or D5. Heh

The 90's?   This explains alot................:lol:

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

BOX acknowledged OWD and BED too. But their hands are tied. This is ridiculous. 

BED actually looks decent today. Maybe the good mixing is helping whatever issue they have.

I wish the climo sites had a 2nd or even 3rd temp sensor to be used for backup and error triggering algorithms. Get more than a 1F or 1C different in the 2 and start chucking the $'s in the METARs.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Probably really 33F because of rounding, but yeah...lol. BVY 30F and GHG 32F. Probably a legit 34F at OWD too with a half hour of +1C obs. So the usual suspects look overly warm.

 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BOX acknowledged OWD and BED too. But their hands are tied. This is ridiculous. 

How common is this around the country....

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

BED actually looks decent today. Maybe the good mixing is helping whatever issue they have.

I wish the climo sites had a 2nd or even 3rd temp sensor to be used for backup and error triggering algorithms. Get more than a 1F or 1C different in the 2 and start chucking the $'s in the METARs.

Apparently Logan Asos checked out so it must be a siting issue around the Asos station and not the instrumentation itself? Not sure what would it be...maybe they called up Stowe to install a heated sidewalk to the fence there. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Apparently Logan Asos checked out so it must be a siting issue around the Asos station and not the instrumentation itself? Not sure what would it be...maybe they called up Stowe to install a heated sidewalk to the fence there. 

Yeah true...probably more black mulch around the ASOS for easy maintenance purposes.

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18 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

To me, it is more amazing the agreement. I remember in HS and college in the 90's looking at the crude PSC images for the EC, MRF/AVN/GFS etc. and you'd be lucky to see agreement like that D3 or D5. Heh

Yeah that agreement is pretty solid. Even though there are those differences in the eastern PAC/western US...not sure it would really amount to significant differences...either way it's a solid look

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wizzy analyzing 00z d8-10 means as the 12z euro is half rolled out. :guitar:

but not fully out :D 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Record low maxes today:

BOS: 36F (1874)

ORH 32F (2013)

BDL: 33F (1911)

PVD: 37F (1911)

CON: 30F (1894)

PWM: 33F (1990)

BTV: 28F (1916)

 

Hard to see any of these standing up....even the BOS battle of ** vs Oxen of yore

Do you have the link for this type of information for different reporting sites? Can't seem to find one anywhere. TYIA

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