MarkO Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 GFS doesn't have to operate at a profit and I believe that is the main difference between it and the ECM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: And voila, Just what has been talked about, The 12z GFS for the 11/8-11/9th.............. Hey even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while ...right??? Lol. GFS is horrible...sad we can’t get that thing working better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Hey even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while ...right??? Lol. GFS is horrible...sad we can’t get that thing working better... Warning snows for CNE/NNE, Ah no...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: I had 11/8 for the first reported CON flakes contest at work. The date was picked in July. The epo and AO seem really favorable. You are in a great position for this possible storm. Gefs has a signal further south but you should cash in before everyone else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Maybe we squeeze in a little mid-month warm up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hey even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while ...right??? Lol. GFS is horrible...sad we can’t get that thing working better... The pattern supports a storm somewhere on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Euro ensembles have the disturbance as well. It's 9-10 days out so it doesn't really matter at this point but there's going to be some legit cold around and if the embedded shortwaves cooperate then it's totally realistic to see a snow threat. Its not like 11/8-9 is the same as October....we're starting to get into more realistic time frames for first measurable...esp for interior zones and into NNE non-mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 4 hours ago, dendrite said: IIRC the GFS ran almost up to par with the EC error wise when used with the EC initialization years ago. So maybe we need to stop beating around the bush and go full 4DVAR and none of this hybrid crap. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Indeed, The euro doesn't have it at the same magnitude as the 12z GFS had it, But the models and ensembles have picked up on this threat the last few runs so i think its legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles have the disturbance as well. It's 9-10 days out so it doesn't really matter at this point but there's going to be some legit cold around and if the embedded shortwaves cooperate then it's totally realistic to see a snow threat. Its not like 11/8-9 is the same as October....we're starting to get into more realistic time frames for first measurable...esp for interior zones and into NNE non-mountains. Yup, solid points The otherwise knee jerk defensive shtick gets a bit tedious - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: I wish we lived in a universe that was really like that... everything in reality had parts well formed and other parts were weird. Course, that would be completely normal - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup, solid points The otherwise knee jerk defensive shtick is but tedious - Of course, the 12z run is now dropping the PV lobe way west compared to 00z and that changes the whole d8-10 look. But that's another Arctic blizzard for the front range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Warning snows for CNE/NNE, Ah no...... Plenty of time to trend north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 winter in winter, please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Its not like 11/8-9 is the same as October....we're starting to get into more realistic time frames for first measurable...esp for interior zones and into NNE non-mountains. Measurable snow by then shouldn’t be remotely surprising for the mountain valleys around here. Mean (as well as median) date for first measurable at our site is 10/20 ± 11 days, so the 11/8 would be well past 1 S.D. and actually closer to 2 S.D. Not that we couldn’t get measurable snow before that, but 11/8 for first accumulation would be in the bottom 4 to 5% of seasons based on the data set thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 12z Euro op really amps the 8th-9th system into a cutter this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Plenty of time to trend north. Euro goes cutter this run. Screaming south winds. Cold wont be denied though eventually even on this look...checkout that building over EPO block at d9...sending another brutal arctic shot south but it would end up a lot further east wth the block bullying its way into the central arctic. Either way, prob getting some real cold...exact evolution/dates TBD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 May even be some upslope snows on 11/3 in the elevations of the Green, Whites and Mahoosuc's on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, J.Spin said: Measurable snow by then shouldn’t be remotely surprising for the mountain valleys around here. Mean (as well as median) date for first measurable at our site is 10/20 ± 11 days, so the 11/8 would be well past 1 S.D. and actually closer to 2 S.D. Not that we couldn’t get measurable snow before that, but 11/8 for first accumulation would be in the bottom 4 to 5% of seasons based on the data set thus far. I count you as mountains since you enjoy the advantage of the upslope components. I was more speaking for areas like central NH over to the lakes region in Maine eastward to midcoast. Those areas usually require something a bit more than moist CAA flow to generate measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro goes cutter this run. Screaming south winds. Cold wont be denied though eventually even on this look...checkout that building over EPO block at d9...sending another brutal arctic shot south but it would end up a lot further east wth the block bullying its way into the central arctic. Either way, prob getting some real cold...exact evolution/dates TBD I’m completely fine with that. No black hole near Alaska. Weenies need to repeat that. No black hole near Alaska. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’m completely fine with that. No black hole near Alaska. Weenies need to repeat that. No black hole near Alaska. Clicking there heels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro goes cutter this run. Screaming south winds. Cold wont be denied though eventually even on this look...checkout that building over EPO block at d9...sending another brutal arctic shot south but it would end up a lot further east wth the block bullying its way into the central arctic. Either way, prob getting some real cold...exact evolution/dates TBD every time that look shows up a massive pv lobe eventually swings across the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, forkyfork said: every time that look shows up a massive pv lobe eventually swings across the country Yeah that's actually pretty classic for mid-winter extreme Arctic outbreaks. I remember years ago going back and looking at our top 10-15 worst ones and a huge majority of them have a big positive height anomaly deep into the Arctic Ocean versus just over AK. There's a bit of Atlantic support on this setup too. For those rooting for snow, it's actually probably better to cut the 11/8 system and delay the heart of the cold plunge several days. The longwave pattern gets a bit more favorable and you gain some climo (esp up in the source region where they are losing 5-6 minutes a day of sun). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 46 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro op really amps the 8th-9th system into a cutter this run. Eps is colder for that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is colder for that timeframe That is the period we may get a shot at something wintry, EPS is further east or thereafter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: That is the period we may get a shot at something wintry, EPS is further east or thereafter. Get your shovel ready =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 <3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Get your shovel ready =) Right now, I have my rifle ready. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Ok, let me ask you something ... what happens if we apply a subtle correction to atone for the Euro bias? Thing is, it would not take much to get the flow down stream N of the Lakes into a confluence with that arm of polar high extending east of the initial -EPO load. Beyond D6 .. I dunno man that's dangerous look for the whole U..S actually. Lots of possibilities there.. I mean I get it it's hard maybe to see outside that box but the model was too far west with this pattern change; how could we forget. We said the Euro could be too deep in the SW several times. Well.. One thing I will note..the flow is fast - let's not forget that. Embedded impulse works ( not that anyone said otherwise ) are liable to be an open wave bottle rocket variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Maybe we squeeze in a little mid-month warm up? Warm-up? I'm still waiting for a cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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