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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

There is nothing remotely good about cold. And all those people who prance around screaming, "I'd rather be cold then hot. You can always add clothes, you can't take them off"...GARBAGE...COMPLETE GARBAGE. What a ridiculous phrase. There is nothing good about cold. Nothing fun about shivering 

There is nothing worse than the heat. Absolutely terrible. You can be completely nude and still be suffer. The house is stuffy, the humidity, the disgusting swamp ass. Everyone smells.

Give me the cold. Individual can choose their level of comfort based on layers. 

I've got every joint problem in the book too. Still not worth the sweat. Put on some damn layers

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I have always been intrigued by microclimates, especially neighborhood to neighborhood. My station last night had a bit of calm in the wind and the temperature quickly responded only to bounce right back as soon as the wind picked up again. I suspect we make a run at single digits around here if the winds go calm and the clouds hold off long enough....

Screenshot_20191113-084956_Chrome.jpg

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51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes that is finger lake effect snow. Pretty classic. Need about 330-340 flow which is what they have. It's usually best if you have he Georgian bay connection going over the top of a weak ridge but they don't really have that this morning so the snow showers prob aren't too heavy. 

Can really see it on the cam

https://www.ithaca.edu/webcam/

 

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I was talking more over the region in this cold spell we are having.

BTV had a high of 26F yesterday, setting the record low max and the record for earliest in the season.  

BTV had a low of 9F this morning, record low and coldest temperature for this early in the season. 

What’s most impressive to me is how warm BTV runs and they have the climate records back to 1800s....so for that station to set coldest/earliest records means the air mass is legit.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV had a high of 26F yesterday, setting the record low max and the record for earliest in the season.  

BTV had a low of 9F this morning, record low and coldest temperature for this early in the season. 

What’s most impressive to me is how warm BTV runs and they have the climate records back to 1800s....so for that station to set coldest/earliest records means the air mass is legit.

That's impressive, Nothing fake about this airmass, Tough checking records for here as they were not kept very well over the years in my locale.

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Winter? Hmm, last I checked the calendar said Nov 13th.  My normal high is 54F and normal low is 33F.  Today's low and high temps are typical of Mid January #s.

Nov is typically not a mild month. It’s typically cool. Your avg temp is derived from an average which includes cold temps and warm temps. That’s not normal , it’s simply a derived statistic 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nov is typically not a mild month. It’s typically cool. Your avg temp is derived from an average which includes cold temps and warm temps. That’s not normal , it’s simply a derived statistic 

This is something I strongly, strongly, strongly agree with and I've thought a quite a bit about this lately. Say an average is 55...well it would be interested to know how many times the temperatures was below a certain value and how many times the temperature was above a certain value. Sometimes averages can be extremely deceiving. Although, the larger the data set the less spread there should be over time. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nov is typically not a mild month. It’s typically cool. Your avg temp is derived from an average which includes cold temps and warm temps. That’s not normal , it’s simply a derived statistic 

It's statistically less wintry than March. Therefore, it is a fairly mild month, especially the first half. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is something I strongly, strongly, strongly agree with and I've thought a quite a bit about this lately. Say an average is 55...well it would be interested to know how many times the temperatures was below a certain value and how many times the temperature was above a certain value. Sometimes averages can be extremely deceiving. Although, the larger the data set the less spread there should be over time. 

People think normal means it’s supposed to be that temp. The fact is it’s rarely ever that “normal” temp 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

People think normal means it’s supposed to be that temp. The fact is it’s rarely ever that “normal” temp 

 

1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

Averages and normals are two different numbers though.  While temps rarely fall exactly on each value, they are usually around that number.

I think you also have to consider what's the more likely.

For example,

Say you have values of 80, 75, 73, 69, 45, 47, 48, and 50. The average is about 61...but in reality there is just of good as a chance of seeing 70+ as there is 50

Anyways...we're dealing with a very large data set so the spread may not be that crazy...but it would be really awesome to dig into and look at the high temperature for a particular day back to records and then do a breakdown.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

 

I think you also have to consider what's the more likely.

For example,

Say you have values of 80, 75, 73, 69, 45, 47, 48, and 50. The average is about 61...but in reality there is just of good as a chance of seeing 70+ as there is 50

Anyways...we're dealing with a very large data set so the spread may not be that crazy...but it would be really awesome to dig into and look at the high temperature for a particular day back to records and then do a breakdown.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=box

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