ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Maybe they should contract with ECMWF to consult on upgrades... I'm sure the Ecmwf.int crowd would be happy to help out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 IIRC the GFS ran almost up to par with the EC error wise when used with the EC initialization years ago. So maybe we need to stop beating around the bush and go full 4DVAR and none of this hybrid crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: IIRC the GFS ran almost up to par with the EC error wise when used with the EC initialization years ago. So maybe we need to stop beating around the bush and go full 4DVAR and none of this hybrid crap. Yes, I remember that study. I don't believe the new FV3 has changed much, the GFS and GEM have been running toe to toe and considerably behind the ECMWF and UKMET for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: IIRC the GFS ran almost up to par with the EC error wise when used with the EC initialization years ago. So maybe we need to stop beating around the bush and go full 4DVAR and none of this hybrid crap. I could live with the GFS not coming out before lunchtime if it was as good as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Euro is coming out earlier and earlier which is also not helping the FU3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I could live with the GFS not coming out before lunchtime if it was as good as the Euro. I mean seriously...we could all stop paying for Euro data if the error becomes negligible. All of these fancy maps with hundreds of variables and levels would finally become useful. Having just a handful of mandatory levels on the euro hurts for soundings and x-sections. Maybe I'd even view a few of Wizzy's weenie point-click 102hr GFS soundings showing 15000 joules over a silo in Topeka. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro is coming out earlier and earlier which is also not helping the FU3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I mean seriously...we could all stop paying for Euro data if the error becomes negligible. All of these fancy maps with hundreds of variables and levels would finally become useful. Having just a handful of mandatory levels on the euro hurts for soundings and x-sections. Maybe I'd even view a few of Wizzy's weenie point-click 102hr GFS soundings showing 15000 joules over a silo in Topeka. Or it forces EC to improve faster than they already are. The weather enterprise is undeniably better off when you have more than one elite model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Its not going to be good this winter when you have a legit threat when your only going to be able to rely on one or two med range models with limited charts to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Or it forces EC to improve faster than they already are. The weather enterprise is undeniably better off when you have more than one elite model. I mean how high can it go? EC op AC is consistently 0.92ish and has started to almost flatline over the last 5+ years. I'd assume the major improvements would be in that d6-10 range as the errors exponentially worsen. EC is almost a full day better than the competition in the LR already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Its not going to be good this winter when you have a legit threat when your only going to be able to rely on one or two med range models with limited charts to forecast. I like watching TV weathercasts when the graphics are all pretty and NAM based and the OCM (say Harvey for instance) comes on and says something like "yeah, this sim radar graphic is showing this but don't really believe it...I think this will happen...". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I mean how high can it go? EC op AC is consistently 0.92ish and has started to almost flatline over the last 5+ years. I'd assume the major improvements would be in that d6-10 range as the errors exponentially worsen. EC is almost a full day better than the competition in the LR already. Obviously some of those improvements are "cosmetic" to an extent. I mean the big selling point of the GFS was that you could get it 4 times a day! Well now you can get the Euro that often too. And hourly data. So while the skill isn't necessarily improving rapidly, the utility of the model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I like watching TV weathercasts when the graphics are all pretty and NAM based and the OCM (say Harvey for instance) comes on and says something like "yeah, this sim radar graphic is showing this but don't really believe it...I think this will happen...". Your going to see more on air mets have to modify there forecast going forward or there's going to be some big bust with the ones that weigh the GFS model quite heavily in there forecast from what i have seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Your going to see more on air mets have to modify there forecast going forward or there's going to be some big bust with the ones that weigh the GFS model quite heavily in there forecast from what i have seen so far. Look at Scott's example for ORD. If those stations were airing GFS snowfall maps, they just got halved or worse for tonight's broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Look at Scott's example for ORD. If those stations were airing GFS snowfall maps, they just got halved or worse for tonight's broadcast. Yeah, You would have to take them down just based on that run, A more conservative approach is going to lead to more credibility in this instance and with a cold bias you may still be wrong in the end without weighing the GFS on a lower percentage, Going to be rough going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Yeah, You would have to take them down just based on that run, A more conservative approach is going to lead to more credibility in this instance and with a cold bias you may still be wrong in the end without weighing the GFS on a lower percentage, Going to be rough going forward. A strong argument for Kevin's favorite type of forecasting. Probabilistic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: A strong argument for Kevin's favorite type of forecasting. Probabilistic. 70% chance off being wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its not going to be good this winter when you have a legit threat when your only going to be able to rely on one or two med range models with limited charts to forecast. The bright side...there will be a lot more meltdowns to witness in the early afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The bright side...there will be a lot more meltdowns to witness in the early afternoon. Oh there sure will when some get their weenie slapped around by the Euro 90 mins later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: A strong argument for Kevin's favorite type of forecasting. Probabilistic. Gonna be really hard for him to ignore the FV3 when it's showing a snow blitz and the euro says not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna be really hard for him to ignore the FV3 when it's showing a snow blitz and the euro says not a chance. "this may be one of those setups where the gfs beats the euro." 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Ha, Yeah, No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Everybody will still point to Boxing Day 2010 like they still point to 1/25/00 (although the only ones who got that right were messenger and wxcentral (Brian Monahan when he was in HS)....lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna be really hard for him to ignore the FV3 when it's showing a snow blitz and the euro says not a chance. You can already see the comments. "This was a massive upgrade to the GFS, these are set ups where it shines!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna be really hard for him to ignore the FV3 when it's showing a snow blitz and the euro says not a chance. I haven’t used or looked at the GFS in probably 8 years. How many times did I say that over the years? Finally now you guys all aren’t even looking at it. Countless mets say they don’t use it or even look at it . Kev knows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 At least through the first 10 days ... I'm not seeing a huge difference there actually - timing perhaps. But the 850 thermal/ll PP/mid levels appear within acceptable differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Or it forces EC to improve faster than they already are. The weather enterprise is undeniably better off when you have more than one elite model. Maybe we should just forward the 10 commandments of winter wx forecasting to Uccellini and tell him not to approve any GFS upgrades until the commandments have been answered? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 November 8-9 storm should be watched especially with the epo press. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 And voila, Just what has been talked about, The 12z GFS for the 11/8-11/9th.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: November 8-9 storm should be watched especially with the epo press. I had 11/8 for the first reported CON flakes contest at work. The date was picked in July. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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