November 2019 discussion

[CT Valley Snowman]

Some guidance has the valley here dry out before the changeover with pretty much no accumulation.  Hopefully that's not the case.  

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Some guidance has the valley here dry out before the changeover with pretty much no accumulation.  Hopefully that's not the case.  

Good chance of a coating I think even there. I mean maybe it dries out in all areas and it's just flakes...that can happen. But I think we have some support for a couple of hours of snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey does anyone have that URL for the weather underground/wunderground home stations ... ?

I had a system crash and am using a back up, which unfortunately doesn't have any of those URLs - trying to search for it is next to impossible as everything guides you to some marketing exposure.   

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Well seems like a lot of us end as snow tomorrow. I think Kev has a good shot of 1-2 along with Hubby Dave. Rest seems like C-1"or so. Small chance SE areas may get clipped with an enhancement from the south. HREF sort of shows this. 

That would be nice. Start off the season grabbing a few .

[Typhoon Tip]

We got this cold shot mid week and then perhaps another more glancing one toward week's end but after that?   Eiee - 

One can really see the effects of shutting off the -EPO cold spigot across the mid latitudes of the continent.  Despite the calendar going S .. the pattern wants to go N when that happens, and the 850s relax with less incursions and what cold there is, becomes marginal -1 to +1 C 850's in pockets - pretty much coast to coast S of the 50th parallel.  

November is climatologically not a big snow producing month. Best bet to have overcome whatever causes those climate numbers to be what they are, would have been this last ten days or so.  Whatever we get out of this flat fropa with some ANA characteristics along with this "too late" wave, may be it for a while in terms of realistic chances.  There's always "a chance" the pattern automagically reloads despite the current operational tenors and their associated teleconnection/ensemble means, but that's hoping at that point. Partial impetus here ... without the -EPO cold loading, it's hard either seasonally (  November), or in a warming CC scenario, to set the synoptic table with dependable cold at mid latitudes. 

I suspect beyond circa Friday the the probability curve for snow around the NE U.S. may drop to climo or even less for a while.  I'm actually a bit surprised by this to be frank. I thought this was going to be a -AO ( EPO/ ?NAO?) late autumn/early winter, with less observed coupled ENSO influence... It seems the latter is true, but the former hiatus I wasn't expecting.  So, we seem to heading into a nondescript look - interesting.  Sort of an abandoned mid latitudes left to its own devices..  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We got this cold shot mid week and then perhaps another more glancing one toward week's end but after that?   Eiee - 

One can really see the effects of shutting off the -EPO cold spigot across the mid latitudes of the continent.  Despite the calendar going S .. the pattern wants to go N when that happens, and the 850s relax with less incursions and what cold there is, becomes marginal -1 to +1 C 850's in pockets - pretty much coast to coast S of the 50th parallel.  

November is climatologically not a big snow producing month. Best bet to have overcome whatever causes those climate numbers to be what they are, would have been this last ten days or so.  Whatever we get out of this flat fropa with some ANA characteristics along with this "too late" wave, may be it for a while in terms of realistic chances.  There's always "a chance" the pattern automagically reloads despite the current operational tenors and there associated teleconnection/ensemble means, but that's hoping at that point. 

I suspect beyond circa Friday the the probability curve for snow around the NE U.S. may drop to climo or even less for a while.  I'm actually a bit surprised by this to be frank. I thought this was going to be a -AO ( EPO/ ?NAO?) late autumn/early winter, with less observed coupled ENSO influence... It seems the latter is true, but the former hiatus I wasn't expecting.  So, we seem to heading into a nondescript look - interesting.   

Big difference from the GEFS and EPS. The EPS is not nearly as ugly as the GEFS. The GEFS have low heights from the Bering Sea to the west coast. The EPS has more ridging in the EPO/PNA region. We definitely will relax with the -EPO that we have now, but the EPS certainly are less hostile.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We got this cold shot mid week and then perhaps another more glancing one toward week's end but after that?   Eiee - 

One can really see the effects of shutting off the -EPO cold spigot across the mid latitudes of the continent.  Despite the calendar going S .. the pattern wants to go N when that happens, and the 850s relax with less incursions and what cold there is, becomes marginal -1 to +1 C 850's in pockets - pretty much coast to coast S of the 50th parallel.  

November is climatologically not a big snow producing month. Best bet to have overcome whatever causes those climate numbers to be what they are, would have been this last ten days or so.  Whatever we get out of this flat fropa with some ANA characteristics along with this "too late" wave, may be it for a while in terms of realistic chances.  There's always "a chance" the pattern automagically reloads despite the current operational tenors and there associated teleconnection/ensemble means, but that's hoping at that point. 

I suspect beyond circa Friday the the probability curve for snow around the NE U.S. may drop to climo or even less for a while.  I'm actually a bit surprised by this to be frank. I thought this was going to be a -AO ( EPO/ ?NAO?) late autumn/early winter, with less observed coupled ENSO influence... It seems the latter is true, but the former hiatus I wasn't expecting.  So, we seem to heading into a nondescript look - interesting.   

Larry Cosgrove mentioned the warming for the last 2 weeks of November and for much of December. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Big difference from the GEFS and EPS. The EPS is not nearly as ugly as the GEFS. The GEFS have low heights from the Bering Sea to the west coast. The EPS has more ridging in the EPO/PNA region. We definitely will relax with the -EPO that we have now, but the EPS certainly are less hostile.

You may have access to products that I do not - in fact, if you still work for WSI ...that's likely true.  

That said, I was just referring to the EPS through D10, which across the continent/mid -latitudes is entirely comparable to the GEFS evolution between D's 6 to 10, and neither is very encouraging for cold maintenance at mid latitudes from what I am seeing. There's probably some room for interpretation differences, but admittedly ( this is my opinion ) we need the -EPO to be rather robust either way, or we suffer the same marginal to above threshold states.  

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Big difference from the GEFS and EPS. The EPS is not nearly as ugly as the GEFS. The GEFS have low heights from the Bering Sea to the west coast. The EPS has more ridging in the EPO/PNA region. We definitely will relax with the -EPO that we have now, but the EPS certainly are less hostile.

Seems like even the gefs are trying to reload somewhat around the week of Tday. But that's getting pretty far out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Larry Cosgrove mentioned the warming for the last 2 weeks of November and for much of December. 

Well... not prepared to comment on Mr. Cosgrove and/or time spans ... 

I have no idea or opinion about December.  If anything, I'd hedge toward the -AO ( EPO/ ?NAO? ) to reassert - I just don't wanna go on record because I gotta say ... 

One fascinating aspect about the last ~ five years of observing the teleconnector --> reality and verification, is that the former is becoming less dependable as a predictive tool.  The reason for that, I feel, is because although the mass conservation/physics won't/don't change regardless of era, what does change is that mass fields them selves, where larger global -scaled systemic eddy forcing is causing larger mass field modalities to changes quicker and more stochastic. Typical reliance ( or old school reliance ) is becoming less so.  I've seen three to five day stints of solid coherent -AO in the CPC suddenly, quite unexpectedly vanish with increasing frequency ...etc..  It's really that specifically, how the multi-run/continuity aspect used to lend to confidence, is being rattled by CC ( most likely it's an aspect of climate change - ). 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You may have access to products that I do not - in fact, if you still work for WSI ...that's likely true.  

That said, I was just referring to the EPS through D10, which across the continent/mid -latitudes is entirely comparable to the GEFS evolution between D's 6 to 10, and neither is very encouraging for cold maintenance at mid latitudes from what I am seeing. There's probably some room for interpretation differences, but admittedly ( this is my opinion ) we need the -EPO to be rather robust either way, or we suffer the same marginal to above threshold states.  

Oh yeah, not trying to contradict. I know the 11-15 day on the EPS isn't readily available, so just wanted to add that bit of information. 

 

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like even the gefs are trying to reload somewhat around the week of Tday. But that's getting pretty far out. 

Yeah we'll certainly moderate, as the block weakens a bit. I am encouraged at least to see some ridging into Greenland. If we can get the Pacific to reload a tad, that could be interesting late month or perhaps into December. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh yeah, not trying to contradict. I know the 11-15 day on the EPS isn't readily available, so just wanted to add that bit of information. 

 

Yeah we'll certainly moderate, as the block weakens a bit. I am encouraged at least to see some ridging into Greenland. If we can get the Pacific to reload a tad, that could be interesting late month or perhaps into December. 

Yeah... again, as I was just telling Great Snow 1717 or whatever that user's handle is .. I don't have much of an opinion beyond the D10 .. just that those few days leading up, snow chances are fleeting..  Which, the focus there is so because, lets face it, that's the focus in here, not that I need to point that out - haha.  oy

Anyway, I'm still personally rattled a little that the polarward indices gave up/or are giving out like that ..I thought we had a shot this year, in fact in all honesty was leaning this way, for a fairly robust early winter onset.  Back two weeks and change ago, we started seeing these -EPO tele's and operational hints and there it was... And, there we were and have been, but I wasn't seeing this side of it and am wondering where we go now.  The thing is ...the idea of the -AO ( EPO/?NAO?) was footed in the notion that the we are descending toward negative, as is suggested by multi-decadal curve with monitoring of the polarward indices; the ENSO being neutral-ish, and also being buried ineffectually inside the expanded Hadley Cell as it appear to be, and is thus less capable of coupling/forcing ( similar to what happened last year/winter), ... it seems an easy logical conclusion that we are more prone from N/stream antics.

I guess what it comes down to is, when our intents live by the AO, our intents suffer by it too.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s nuisance level storm, I’m glad the model QPF has been mostly in colder sector, looks like ends as a few flakes than the attic hounds 

I’m going to consider making my own dang snow and my own climo

https://www.snowathome.com/our_products.php#Snowmakers

[EastonSN+]

To summarize today's CPC teleconnections, if they hold true, we could be looking at a negative threesome (PNA, AO and NAO) by the end of the period.

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting... the CPC's indicating the AO mean is going to stay negative with reasonably well-clustered members indicating such ( along the usual 'tidal' sloshing of the curve), and there "might" be an emerging -NAO. 

The latter is new.  This is happening as the PNA is descending, which is actually somewhat positively correlated with the NAO ( meaning they show some tendency to move together ) looking that up on the correlation/table matrix of indices.  

Very tentative, but it may be that we are really just observing a relay of blocking tendencies at high latitudes...We lose the EPO but gain the NAO .. One thing that sticks out the ( this is the GEFs cluster ) is that the AO stays negative regardless ...

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To summarize today's CPC teleconnections, if they hold true, we could be looking at a negative threesome (PNA, AO and NAO) by the end of the period.

Yup, you beat me too it by a couple of minutes  

Yeah, it could be that we are in process of relaying the block, since the NAO domain is the next physically favorable location, it just takes time to transmit from the north Pacific ... fascinating. 

[Damage In Tolland]

48 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Larry Cosgrove mentioned the warming for the last 2 weeks of November and for much of December. 

Who cares 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares 

As opposed to the fake mets you quote on Twitter?  And if he was calling for it to be cold and stormy you wouldn't be saying "who cares"....I know the pattern is already getting to you!!

[Greg]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting... the CPC's indicating the AO mean is going to stay negative with reasonably well-clustered members indicating such ( along the usual 'tidal' sloshing of the curve), and there "might" be an emerging -NAO. 

The latter is new.  This is happening as the PNA is descending, which is actually somewhat positively correlated with the NAO ( meaning they show some tendency to move together ) looking that up on the correlation/table matrix of indices.  

Very tentative, but it may be that we are really just observing a relay of blocking tendencies at high latitudes...We lose the EPO but gain the NAO .. One thing that sticks out the ( this is the GEFs cluster ) is that the AO stays negative regardless ...

Excellent write-up TT. I will be very curious what the pattern will look like by early December. I'm hoping the Southeast Ridge can be more tame than what we have seen so far. Although it is only early/mid November, this could add a caveat in how the storms track. Especially later on in the later winter months in marginal situations where we need that ridge to be more flatter than what we're seeing now.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As opposed to the fake mets you quote on Twitter?  And if he was calling for it to be cold and stormy you wouldn't be saying "who cares"....I know the pattern is already getting to you!!

It’s snowing tomorrow.

LC stopped being relevant in wx in late 80’s/early 90’s

Deal with it

-Cosgrove 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s snowing tomorrow.

LC stopped being relevant in wx in late 80’s/early 90’s

Deal with it

-Cosgrove 

I hope you get 1” of ice

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s snowing tomorrow.

LC stopped being relevant in wx in late 80’s/early 90’s

Deal with it

-Cosgrove 

He's forgotten more about meteorology in the last 30 minutes than what you will ever know in your lifetime.  Somehow you have convinced yourself that the SNE climate is a cross between Huntsville and Duluth. 

And Cosgrove is far more relevant than the make believe mets you constantly mention/quote. 

Can you please give me a few hours  warning before you have your first meltdown?? I want to check the hallmark store for a card for the occasion...…..Should I sent it to Toolland JR High School???

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, dryslot said:

I think so, Or 2

PWM TV met's map this morning looked essentially identical to the one they had last Thursday, with my area in the 1-3" strip.  That verified at 0.1" last week due to lack of precip (0.04".)  This time it would be due to P-type.  Hoping for an inch before the ZR takes over.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Maybe we end as some snow here.... I’d guess it’s more flakes than anything sticking 

[HoarfrostHubb]

At least no one started a thread for this one

[CoastalWx]

So to summarize, people are getting angst from a relaxation of record cold in early to mid November? 

[Lava Rock]

28 minutes ago, tamarack said:

PWM TV met's map this morning looked essentially identical to the one they had last Thursday, with my area in the 1-3" strip.  That verified at 0.1" last week due to lack of precip (0.04".)  This time it would be due to P-type.  Hoping for an inch before the ZR takes over.

With only a few hrs of sn before the transition, I wonder if we'll even score an inch. The ZR I can do without as it makes it a pita getting out of the driveway or coming down it. Rock salt ftw.

[Ginx snewx]

60 degrees COC day

[ORH_wxman]

Gonna have to watch for some freezing drizzle over interior MA tonight. Esp N ORH county over to Chris's hood but even N middlesex county may have to watch out. 

[ice1972]

I remember Veterans Day 2004 had like 3" down here.......that was nice.....