WinterWolf Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup, cleaned up here..9 inches and I was pumped for a great winter. Not to be. But that was a solid early season event...like in Nov ‘12, but even better. Although the rest of the winter didn’t go like 12-13 season did that’s for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Gfs is colder by next week. Caved towards the eps and gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Nice snowstorm for interior areas next weekend on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 It’s going to be a long winter with the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s going to be a long winter with the FV3. That model sucks out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 MAMGA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: MAMGA Were they ever great? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Were they ever great? MAMB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: MAMB? Snowy Chicago area next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Snowy Chicago area next few days Wish we could but I suspect we will before mid November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Feels like a weenie to say this, but it's not out of the question first flakes at least for some if the EPS is right near the 11/9-11/11 period. At some point when the cold settles in for a few days...we may either get a disturbance rotating through, or WAA as we come out, causes something perhaps frozen. Both scenarios aren't exactly hard to imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 41 minutes ago, dendrite said: Were they ever great? Ding ding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Feels like a weenie to say this, but it's not out of the question first flakes at least for some if the EPS is right near the 11/9-11/11 period. At some point when the cold settles in for a few days...we may either get a disturbance rotating through, or WAA as we come out, causes something perhaps frozen. Both scenarios aren't exactly hard to imagine. Def looks like the main vortex gets far enough south to put us on the north side of any disturbance that gets embedded in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Btw, how's this for an October morning? 4F and snow in Denver. Currently tied for all time record low October temp. Dropped 2F this past hour so good chance they break it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 0Z Euro still has the clipper at the end of the run, May have to watch that 8-9th period for first flakes for more folks in CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Yeah th 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0Z Euro still has the clipper at the end of the run, May have to watch that 8-9th period for first flakes for more folks in CNE/NNE. That's what I was seeing on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Yeah that's a man airmass over them. Getting a lot of coverage on TWC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Btw, how's this for an October morning? 4F and snow in Denver. Currently tied for all time record low October temp. Dropped 2F this past hour so good chance they break it. 3F Congrats DENdy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Cold right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Yeah th That's what I was seeing on the EPS. I have not looked at the EPS yet, It looked to be on there yesterday too, I usually check the Op runs on the models first before the ensembles but looks like I won’t have to waste much time with the GFS. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 3F in DEN so looks like record broken. Impressive for this day and age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Yeah, fuk dat. Keep that shit out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, dendrite said: It’s going to be a long winter with the FV3. 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That model sucks out loud. That roll out was fundamentally flawed. Lots of pomp and circumstance, but there wasn't much actual improvement to model performance. The guts were what was transformed, for future performance improvements. That is not at all how the press releases sounded. Never mind the stuff that actually broke with the transition, like the low/mid level cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 I mean look at KORD for round two of snow. The 18z GFS was a paste bomb. 06z GFS says some light snow to end. POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 It sliced critical QPF for round two tomorrow by 0.4" in 12 hrs. More than half. Sorry Louis, the model is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It sliced critical QPF for round two tomorrow by 0.4" in 12 hrs. More than half. Sorry Louis, the model is a joke. It's 4th behind the Euro, Ukie, and CMC on days 3-5 500 height correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's 4th behind the Euro, Ukie, and CMC on days 3-5 500 height correlation. Here comes toilet paper wiping up the rear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's 4th behind the Euro, Ukie, and CMC on days 3-5 500 height correlation. I try...I really try to give it some credit. But as you pointed out, you run the risk of actually making your forecast worse when incorporating it. And this is not good for the weather community. If the FV3 is making itself irrelevant and the ECMWF is the one to use...well then replace the mets with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I try...I really try to give it some credit. But as you pointed out, you run the risk of actually making your forecast worse when incorporating it. And this is not good for the weather community. If the FV3 is making itself irrelevant and the ECMWF is the one to use...well then replace the mets with the Euro. Yeah, this is going to be the proverbial turning of the cruise ship. It doesn't happen overnight, but at least we're moving in a better direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Maybe they should contract with ECMWF to consult on upgrades... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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