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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hard to go against all guidance. We’ll see how things play out 

I wouldn't go 4" anywhere outside of far NW Mass.  That said, being pretty far west you may do a bit better than areas further east even if they're further north (ORH, e.g.).  I think the vast majority in SNE are going to be reporting no more than a coating to something barely measurable.

We'll see.  Maybe things will trend better today.

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Thankfully ... the Euro won't now be 2 for 2 on event over-selling so far this season come Tuesday....

image.thumb.png.0be2c7cc235a4fdc7cdff32a435f2448.png

Interesting ...the model had to speed up the timing in addition to .. pretty much completely morphing it's synopsis.  The GFS wasn't much better from this Novie 4 time range, but, it's depiction of a flatter system that was succumbing to progressive fast flow "conceptually" gets the nod in my book - even though it doesn't get a win per se.  I think in terms of egregiousness the Euro's error is objectively larger.

Unless of course this thing turns around in the next 30 hours of modeling and carves out a NESDIS bomb of 5 along the NE coast. Then sure .. the Euro wins

 

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You sure? 

download (32).png

 

 

Yeah. Models always overestimate sfc temps when midlevels are warmer than low levels with a sfc low tracking SE. I suppose if the sfc low keeps ticking NW then it could be warmer at the sfc but it won't be wet snow in that scenario.

If it's mainly snow there it's gonna be powdery. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. Models always overestimate sfc temps when midlevels are warmer than low levels with a sfc low tracking SE. I suppose if the sfc low keeps ticking NW then it could be warmer at the sfc but it won't be wet snow in that scenario.

If it's mainly snow there it's gonna be powdery. 

Regardless, the heated sidewalks will keep it from looking great.  Of course, much better than most of us!

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is tucky into nrn ORH county. 

Yeah I was just looking at that Scott. 

Subtle variance lean that way in the RGEM fwiw when comparing the 00z to 06z, and I'm leery anytime these higher resolution boundary layer models show that inverted ridging in the llv pressure pattern extending down from Maine like that.  Not predicting a ice storm here, but despite the appeal of the Global runs, that's not mild air up to SE VT there. 

Both models have the leading boundary depicted S of CT/RI - as is classically illustrated by the curvature layout of the PP.  Meanwhile there is any damming structure at all N of that?  Sorry, but I'm a hard liner against warmth getting into the interior when you get east of the Berks/Whites and we have a topographic drain built right in - this has 925 mb burrier jet written all over it. And even if it is weak it's blocking the llvs from warmth entirely. 

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Asking for a friend (wife)......

She's scheduled to drive from ORH to Saratoga, NY.  She's planning to leave ORH at 5:00.  I'm thinking she won't have anything (rain or other) until she's essentially in Saratoga.  What time would you anticipate any precipitation to wind down out there?

She's leery of the drive both ways and a college campus tour they have planned out there on Tuesday.

Thanks.

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