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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I still can’t believe my average high temp is 47F.  

Expectations out of whack after last year. They are usually out of whack anyway this time of year but I think last year's snow and record cold outbreak made it worse this year. 

You're gonna be good for warning snows in this...we're probably screwed down here unfortunately unless we can get some anafront wave action. Too bad because something a little slower and digging further could give everyone pretty good snows without too much "stealing of snow". But maybe 1-3" can still happen for a bunch of folks. 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Expectations out of whack after last year. They are usually out of whack anyway this time of year but I think last year's snow and record cold outbreak made it worse this year. 

You're gonna be good for warning snows in this...we're probably screwed down here unfortunately unless we can get some anafront wave action. Too bad because something a little slower and digging further could give everyone pretty good snows without too much "stealing of snow". But maybe 1-3" can still happen for a bunch of folks. 

Many are planning on that in SNE

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

might have better luck with one of those in the parade of southern stream systems the 18z GFS lifts up the seaboard once this pointless cold pattern completes its waste of our time - ha..

But the flow relaxes and any one of those could be a blue bomb

November coastals more often bring blue balls.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the Jspin/PF area to Alex and Sunday River on E and NE look pretty darn sweet. 

That 18z Euro is way amped.  Thats mixed precip from here to Alex to Sunday River.  

That’s been my fear, that like the last event it trends a tick warmer as it approaches.  

F9958BA3-B59E-4B1F-9CD7-8F1DFE0D9147.thumb.png.0dfb1358d99b90fa4c1ccccfb179350a.png

 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That 18z Euro is way amped.  Thats mixed precip from here to Alex to Sunday River.  

That’s been my fear, that like the last event it trends a tick warmer as it approaches.  

F9958BA3-B59E-4B1F-9CD7-8F1DFE0D9147.thumb.png.0dfb1358d99b90fa4c1ccccfb179350a.png

 

You are well below freezing at the surface and heights crash as the precip arrives, congrats again

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That 18z Euro is way amped.  Thats mixed precip from here to Alex to Sunday River.  

That’s been my fear, that like the last event it trends a tick warmer as it approaches.  

F9958BA3-B59E-4B1F-9CD7-8F1DFE0D9147.thumb.png.0dfb1358d99b90fa4c1ccccfb179350a.png

 

Hmm, yeah that is pretty amped. I didn’t look at the 18z run. Well, I suppose It’s relative. You’ll do well behind the front anyways. And who knows, we’ve seen the euro throttle back at times from amped solutions. Maybe you taint for a time, but a base builder at least there.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hmm, yeah that is pretty amped. I didn’t look at the 18z run. Well, I suppose It’s relative. You’ll do well behind the front anyways. And who knows, we’ve seen the euro throttle back at times from amped solutions. Maybe you taint for a time, but a base builder at least there.

He might lose a tenth to mix. 8 plus at the base, upslope up top, days and days of snow. Deep deep winter week up there.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hmm, yeah that is pretty amped. I didn’t look at the 18z run. Well, I suppose It’s relative. You’ll do well behind the front anyways. And who knows, we’ve seen the euro throttle back at times from amped solutions. Maybe you taint for a time, but a base builder at least there.

Yeah it is all relative.  No one wants to hear me complain about mixing with sleet, ha.  I'm not saying that to be a debbie though, just merely discussing the forecast possibilities up here... and we saw sort of the same trend with the system before this one.  Some pretty far south solutions on some models at the day 4-6 time frame, only to swing back north in the day 2-3 time frame.  

It did look like all the 18z models were more amped/warmer/wetter than the 12z suite.  We will net gain regardless unless this gets really jacked up to a cutter. 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it is all relative.  No one wants to hear me complain about mixing with sleet, ha.  I'm not saying that to be a debbie though, just merely discussing the forecast possibilities up here... and we saw sort of the same trend with the system before this one.  Some pretty far south solutions on some models at the day 4-6 time frame, only to swing back north in the day 2-3 time frame.  

It did look like all the 18z models were more amped/warmer/wetter than the 12z suite.  We will net gain regardless unless this gets really jacked up to a cutter. 

Wpc

noaad3.gif

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