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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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On 10/28/2019 at 12:51 PM, klw said:

I just ordered 10 tons of hardpack to make driveway repairs. It is being delivered on Nov 9.  I fully expect first snow to come on either the 8th or 9th now.

The Twin State Sand and Gravel model verified to the tune of .6 inches between the 7th and 8th.  Fortunately the driveway is clear.

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This cold is fairly ridiculous.  We knew it was coming but it still doesn’t feel that cold relative to normal...people seem to think this is how November should be.  Wrong.  

The current 30-year average max/min is 47/28 here at MVL.  Yesterday’s high temp was 28F....the normal low.  This morning it was 11F.  

And it looks even colder coming up behind the early week system.  

 

It’s fake.

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3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Reggie is a good tool within 36-48 hours or so.  Too early to pay any heed now.

Even then it's been questionable in recent years. It runs hot and cold. I like to use it in CAD since it does well showing the BL holding tough. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's raining oak leaves, but these muthafukkas never come down until after T-Day. Even if it was sub zero starting Labor day. 

Growing up in the Hudson Valley I remember backyard oak trees with brown leaves on them at like Christmas, lol.  Those things just never fell down.  Didn't matter how cold or how much snow.

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14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It’s fake.

MEX MOS has us staying below our normal minimum temperature for this time of year on both Tuesday and Wednesday.  That's nuts for a product with some climate aspect baked in, that it is showing highs below our normal mins.  It has 26/18, 24/9 and 29/4 for Tue/Wed/Thur. 

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Euro is definitely the warmest of any guidance but it took a little tick colder. You can def see it in NNE. Didn't make much difference for us down here since it was rain either way. A little more precip is trying to hang back post-front though. That's a trend we'll want to see. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro tickling colder. Won't be enough for SNE I don't think, but better to tick colder than not. 

Defintely not getting it done.  SNE will need more than these small increments in order to get much of anything.

Of course, the models could all suck.  There's always that.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is definitely the warmest of any guidance but it took a little tick colder. You can def see it in NNE. Didn't make much difference for us down here since it was rain either way. A little more precip is trying to hang back post-front though. That's a trend we'll want to see. 

Euro looks alot better for snow at the end for many areas. 

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This NAM solution is interesting in that it appears to be slowing the entire deep tropospheric synoptic evolution by some 6 hours ..but crucially enough to blossom that baroclinic leafing in NYS to central NE more prodigiously.. It's also causing subtly more deepening along and S of LI, which may be inducing a bit more ageo. flow/mixing into the Rt 2 region... with an bit more QPF flashing over to snow out there in time.

But that level of detail aside, ( and it is the NAM of course! ), the overall complexion of that is bit more meaningful I would think than some of these immediate prior solutions.

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