RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Very fake news. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KORH&time=GMT 15.8 is 15 when we want it cold...just like 97.2 is 98 when we want it hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 14.7F was the low, Back up to 21.3F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 15.8 is 15 when we want it cold...just like 97.2 is 98 when we want it hot. 20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Very fake news. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KORH&time=GMT The low was 15F. Not fake at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 What would be nice is if we had a sharper s/w down south to help with a secondary low and overrunning after the first low pulls away. Seemed like some ensemble members had that, but also looks to be a low chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Temps out here on the Outer Cape dropped to 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 First snow flakes too yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Colder 12z Nan run, That gets more folks some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 12z NAM would work for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I’d hit the NAM....but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Advisory snows here hopefully the rest of 12z looks good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t see any signs of pattern breakdown either. The end of the EPS look pretty mice with a +PNA. A +NAO , but some signs of a weak ridge maybe in NE Greenland. The big takeaway to me is that the Pacific still looks good. While that’s certainly encouraging, Here’s the problem...we are wasting this very nice pattern in early to mid November, when climo is still rather hostile for most of us. If it came a few weeks from now, we’d probably be faring much better. But unfortunately we can only take what’s given us, when it’s given us. But as I said, it is Encouraging nonetheless. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I’d hit it too, Right in the chops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: While that’s certainly encouraging, Here’s the problem...we are wasting this very nice pattern in early to mid November, when climo is still rather hostile for most of us. If it came a few weeks from now, we’d probably be faring much better. But unfortunately we can only take what’s given us, when it’s given us. But as I said, it is Encouraging nonetheless. We take. I think you said it. Early to mid November. I think people don’t understand how hard that is. You have a better chance getting snow in late March. So to me, I don’t have the angst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 NAM is a pretty good way to get most people involved in accumulating snow. But I ain't buying it until there's some more support. GFS kind of did that at 06z though a little less robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Kind of been getting these some what colder solutions the last few runs now on the models, As long as we have no regression , Euro has been the NW outlier but it has made a couple tics SE last 3 Runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3k was a tick warmer than the 12k at 60hr. But all NAMs do NAM things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 A colder rain Maybe I get a T+ instead of a T- this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Given that it’s not a stemwinder of a low, we may have to watch nrn ORH county for a push of cold air to the SSW. I’m not saying the NAM is right, but the idea of the cold sagging south into this area is probably something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 3k was a tick warmer than the 12k at 60hr. But all NAMs do NAM things. Go with the euro. Euro will bust again. The trend has been weaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d hit the NAM....but..... Gfs did the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs did the same thing The NAM/GFS combo isn’t exactly a riveting set of guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Given that it’s not a stemwinder of a low, we may have to watch nrn ORH county for a push of cold air to the SSW. I’m not saying the NAM is right, but the idea of the cold sagging south into this area is probably something to watch. NAM has a period of ZR or FZDZ before the snow over the interior....I could def see some icing issues even in a bit of a warmer solution in the midlevels because with the exception of the euro, the sfc low is tracking to the southeast. Euro basically tracks it overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Go with the euro. Euro will bust again. The trend has been weaker. Looks favorable? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I need to do the Rt. 122/2 drive from ORH to/from Greenfield midday Tuesday. Might be a little slick on the return trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I've been tussling with the hypothesis that a +PNA is not enough in and among itself.. I've noticed this tendency over the recent two decades ... getting more coherent with each passing cold season, where without the -EPO, you shut off and flip violently above normal. We've entered a one-or-the-other as a longer termed, multi-seasonal tendency. We seem to be entering, or are in, a new paradigm, ..most likely associated with the dreaded eye-roller climate change, where it's all or nothing. We have to have the ridge tapping the arctic air mass and delivering en masse/loading, or the expanded HC reasserts its self, and we have a rather extreme continental roll-out of cold replaced with above normals - that behavior, overall, is becoming more common place in cold seasons. That said ...we have been blessed at mid latitudes of the continent, in that the Pacific Basin bulge ( and this goes back to primitive climate model predictions from the late 1980s-'90s ) is unrelenting, do to the [ theorized ] SST anomalies that are relatively above normal, regardless of specific PDO state. That bulge is turning the flow NW in Canada, .. more frequencies of -EPOs to ironically cloak the fact that without said EPO ...you're flipping the other way. In other words, +PNA's with less arctic tapping are warmer patterns than they were 50 years ago. Sorry folks ..you gotta start modulating this shit into your ideas about your winter outlooks or they're meaningless, particularly when there are papers explaining the HC expansion and the empirically storm track repositioning and changes to the larger scale circulation eddies because of it. But I digress... In any case, you can see it on the D10 Euro. The EPO has [ perhaps only temporarily ] abated, and the entire domain S of ~ the 50th parallel across the continent, goes above normal at 850 mb pretty quickly, despite the western mid latitude +PNA attributing to +PNAP look. Later on in the cold season a +PNA alone would be more capable of substantively maintaining a cold source but ... this early, with limited snow pack/cryosphere over Canada, "home grown" cold air masses are a struggle. By the way .. I'm not sure I buy it the EPO is going away per the Euro's extended, just using that as an example of how mid latitudes have more trouble than decades ago with 'cold in the bank.' We got to more and more so be in a reloading constancy ...which also unfortunately means a higher compression/N/stram dominant pattern and velocity saturation ...introducing other headaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM has a period of ZR or FZDZ before the snow over the interior....I could def see some icing issues even in a bit of a warmer solution in the midlevels because with the exception of the euro, the sfc low is tracking to the southeast. Euro basically tracks it overhead. The NAM is a nice crown on the rocks solution. 1-3” and then the arctic hounds come in. I don’t expect that, but the thought of the very idea of a nice glass of your favorite liquor with white ground and temps plummeting is certainly appealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you said it. Early to mid November. I think people don’t understand how hard that is. You have a better chance getting snow in late March. So to me, I don’t have the angst. Oh I get it and agree with you completely. That’s why I’m a little uncomfortable with such a decent look this early on...cuz it will most likely be wasted on the poor climo for snow, that is SNE in Early/mid November. But maybe it’ll(This pattern) repeat again for the heart of winter? And Let’s hope the NAM is possibly on to something here ...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 The small ticks are encouraging.....but until we see something more substantive and consistent amongst other models, I'm with Dave in the 'colder rain' camp. Hopefully the next couple runs might show the substance and consistency we all crave. Needless to say, nice little event for CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh I get it and agree with you completely. That’s why I’m a little uncomfortable with such a decent look this early on...cuz it will most likely be wasted on the poor climo for snow, that is SNE in Early/mid November. But maybe it’ll(This pattern) repeat again for the heart of winter? And Let’s hope the NAM is possibly on to something here ...lol. Nam , gfs and icon =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh I get it and agree with you completely. That’s why I’m a little uncomfortable with such a decent look this early on...cuz it will most likely be wasted on the poor climo for snow, that is SNE in Early/mid November. But maybe it’ll(This pattern) repeat again for the heart of winter? And Let’s hope the NAM is possibly on to something here ...lol. Oh I see what you meant. Well, I’d rather see something favorable in November. If I looked out long range and saw the Death Star setup near AK, I’d be A little concerned. That’s not to say December could have that...still could. However, I don’t see many signs of anything too ominous regarding that. I’m fact, the massive Scandinavia blocking could be a harbinger the getting a -NAO. That’s happened in the past. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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