November 2019 discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

50 miles north and near 1100ft. I could see that. 

Barely over 1000' but the latitude might help too. Front steps were icy this morning

[dendrite]

ORH had 24°. His 23° does seem a little low unless he is rounding down 23.9°. I’m guessing his fan is dead too so it’s probably getting some heat loss in the morning without the aspirated assist.

[OSUmetstud]

58 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Many seasonal forecasters have Dec as the ‘worst’ month though. Do we trust Modelogy or Meterology?

As do I. But seasonal forecasting is still a budding field with low confidence so I'm not sure if there's much difference in skill between a forecaster's forecast and a model forecast. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Just looked outside and have some flurries flying, first of the season...30.9 atm

What did we bottom out at this morning..25/26?

[MJO812]

6z euro ensembles still give some love  to SNE 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

As do I. But seasonal forecasting is still a budding field with low confidence so I'm not sure if there's much difference in skill between a forecaster's forecast and a model forecast. 

Interesting. CFS vs RAY.

[CapturedNature]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ORH had 24°. His 23° does seem a little low unless he is rounding down 23.9°. I’m guessing his fan is dead too so it’s probably getting some heat loss in the morning without the aspirated assist.

There's an AirNow station on top of Chestnut Hill here in town that's around 975' that was 28° this morning.  I do know that station only reports hourly so it might have been 26 or 27 at some point.  There's also a station in Union that is around 1K and they were 26° like I was.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

yeah, I hear ticks love to have warm and cozy places to sleep....I remove all leaves and cut the grass extra short at the end of the year, everything you are not suppose to do, but no ticks>green grass

you got it backwards. your lawn should be cut short and free of leaves for the winter. 

[weatherwiz]

Ok this drives me nuts. there is the option for 20th century re-analysis but you can only go to 2015...

the top link goes to present day but start at 1948...

HOW ARE YOU SUPPOSED TO CREATE A SET OF COMPOSITES TO INCLUDE ANY LIST OF YEARS FROM 1854-PRESENT???

[adiabatic14]

49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What I really, really want to do and have been wanting to do for nearly the past decade is take the daily values of the NAO, AO, PNA (and whatever other indices daily values are available for) and create like a weekly or bi-weekly dataset. I know looking at height fields is the way to go, but the raw numbers do provide some value...one of the values is you can quickly see transitions then view that period visually. Doing so though is not as easy as just adding up two weeks of values and dividing by 14. I'm thinking of emailing someone at CPC for perhaps some input. 

Anyways with the seasonal forecasting discussion, I don't think it gets the respect it deserves. In reality, seasonal forecasting can be more accurate than forecasting 3-days out. Utilizing all the data available, understanding climo, and how the atmosphere sorta of works can provide tremendous insight into how the atmosphere may evolve moving forward...and there is tremendous success in doing so. Only issue is when someone forecasts a "great" pattern 7-weeks out and that pattern doesn't produce snow it's called a bust...even though the pattern verified. It's one thing to forecast patterns, but that pattern producing is dependent on numerous other factors which aren't necessarily tied into the overall pattern. 

Yes, seasonal snow forecasts still involve a lot of "dart tossing," as the set of variables that produce a particular snowfall in any single geographic location are simply so many and so spaced out temporally that we're not even sure we know what they all are, never mind whether we're accurately capturing and weighting them in our forecast processes. Weenies don't much like that disclaimer however.

[Typhoon Tip]

MJO progs are still favorable mid month ... Man, it's almost like the peregrinations of modeling efforts and tweaking over the years have wended us into a situation, almost purely as an "emergent process of a complex system"; in this case the models have emerged this skill of engineering reasons to cancel deeper cyclones.  

Seriously, according to CPC the MJO in both the GFS/Euro clusters, rockets through phase 6 in just two days; then, while strengthening modestly they slow the propagation down passing moderately thru phases 7/8 ...  That's a cold seasonal correlation for the NP-Lakes/OV and NE regions...

What's interesting is that the operational Euro and GFS are really doing everything in their physical power to flip the script to a warmer look as near as D10, seemingly fighting it.. There's really no reason in the tele's to do that, not sure why they are...  interesting. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, adiabatic14 said:

Yes, seasonal snow forecasts still involve a lot of "dart tossing," as the set of variables that produce a particular snowfall in any single geographic location are simply so many and so spaced out temporally that we're not even sure we know what they all are, never mind whether we're accurately capturing and weighting them in our forecast processes. Weenies don't much like that disclaimer however.

Great first post  

[Spanks45]

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What did we bottom out at this morning..25/26?

26.6° on my station

[Typhoon Tip]

Anyone who's abandoning this thread should not be allowed back in when the 12z guidance reverses the trend - 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anyone who's abandoning this thread should not be allowed back in when the 12z guidance reverses the trend - 

Ha. That would be hilarious to see either 12z or 00z tonight violently swing back to the colder look. 

[Spanks45]

29 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

you got it backwards. your lawn should be cut short and free of leaves for the winter. 

I have always put my mower down to the lowest level on the last cut, it keeps the leaves from sticking in my yard when the wind blows.....plus even with a dusting of snow, the yard is covered....

[jbenedet]

Monday Tuesday potential looks like crap. Meh all around. Maybe it’s just a recency bias but these big -EPO patterns (especially when coupled with +NAO) tend to disappoint us far more often than not—big storm enthusiasts and snow lovers alike. We see a big long wave trough overhead and tappable arctic but the big picture with these serves as a trap that reels in interest and rarely delivers favorably. I suspect the primary reason is we often lack strong perturbations in the flow with these patterns. Why? Who knows for sure but I suspect having short wave propagation out of western Canada vs the Colorado Rockies is one strong reason behind it. Western Canada is typically the breeding ground for Alberta clippers whereas our big Miller A’s and B’s have origins much further south and begin maturing in the development cycle long before reaching our region, unlike the former...Maybe I won’t be disappointed if, going forward, I look at these patterns more correctly as Alberta clipper patterns....That has meh written all over it...

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anyone who's abandoning this thread should not be allowed back in when the 12z guidance reverses the trend - 

There it is! Tip follows his pattern . When it looks bleak he looks for reasons to have it happen . 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Monday Tuesday potential looks like crap. Meh all around. Maybe it’s just a recency bias but these big -EPO patterns (especially when coupled with +NAO) tend to disappoint us far more often than not—big storm enthusiasts and snow lovers alike. We see a big long wave trough overhead and tappable arctic but the big picture with these serves as a trap that reels in interest and rarely delivers favorably. I suspect the primary reason is we often lack strong perturbations in the flow with these patterns. Why? Who knows for sure but I suspect having short wave propagation out of western Canada vs the Colorado Rockies is one strong reason behind it. Western Canada is typically the breeding ground for Alberta clippers whereas our big Miller A’s and B’s have origins much further south and begin maturing in the development cycle long before reaching our region, unlike the former...Maybe I won’t be disappointed if, going forward, I look at these patterns more correctly as Alberta clipper patterns....That has meh written all over it...

There may also be a seasonal aspect to this.. We are still technically not into the longer wave length R-wave time of the year, such that these EPO vicissitudes may not be taking place in the best "scaffolding" ... 

That said, I really am strongly confident in my observation that this trough has corrected toward a shallower meridian depth coming east of the Rockies, comparing the runs from two days ago.  This may be correction owing to the fact that the ridge is further west - which full circle ...may be related to the -EPO happening in a subtly less than ideal R-wave construct... Lotta of chicken and egg and complexity there..  But in the end, the trough plumbs to about Nebraska and suddenly stops in the Euro and just starts moving E... that's the ball-game if that happens.  Next! 

Maybe it'll correct but I really believe it starts with that ridge bumping E some. If so, we start to see that trough carve deeper toward the TV and there we go. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There it is! Tip follows his pattern . When it looks bleak he looks for reasons to have it happen . 

huh... No, completely illogical read on your part.  

The statement has 0 to do with weather numb nut -

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There may also be a seasonal aspect to this.. We are still technically not into the longer wave length R-wave time of the year, such that these EPO vicissitudes may not be taking place in the best "scaffolding" ... 

That said, I really am strongly confident in my observation that this trough has corrected toward a shallower meridian depth coming east of the Rockies, comparing the runs from two days ago.  This may be correction owing to the fact that the ridge is further west - which full circle ...may be related to the -EPO happening in a subtly less than ideal R-wave construct... Lotta of offsetting complexities there..  But in the end, the trough plumbs to about Nebraska and suddenly stops in the Euro and just starts moving E... that's the ball-game if that happens.  Next! 

Maybe it'll correct but I really believe it starts with that ridge bumping E some. If so, we start to see that trough carve deeper toward the TV and there we go. 

Another month and we probably have a totally different outcome, Or be worrying about suppression..............

[weatherwiz]

What's interesting is the WPC has the front much farther south and east 12z Monday then what models advertise. Looks like the trough amplifies too far west and heights quickly build ahead of it and that pushes a warm front north and pushes the baroclinic zone farther northwest. Then we get low development along it, it becomes closed off and boom...we all know what closed off low to the west means. 

I was reading something...yesterday actually where models seem to struggle mightily during these -EPO regimes with placement of the front along the EC and are typically too far NW. The one big difference too between today and next week is there is a cold enough airmass already in place...but it just gets shoved out. 

Anyways it's just interesting where the WPC has the placement of the front in relation to the models. So if there is a possibility the models are too far NW with the baroclinic zone...this potential may not totally be over. Could this also be a scenario where models are too quick with lifting the warmer airmass north? Maybe there is still room for freezing rain across CNE and NNE...like valley areas where cold air can be wedged a bit longer? 

[dryslot]

That's quite a bit further east then currently modeled on the WPC site.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That's quite a bit further east then currently modeled on the WPC site.

Don’t they have a tendency to be a few cycles behind?

[weatherwiz]

the front is also going to become somewhat aligned (parallel) with the flow aloft as it's moving through. This would result in a slower FROPA through the region...and likely stall a bit somewhere....perhaps just off the coast which is what typically happens. not saying we see a significant snow event, but I'm wondering if the set-up favors some ana frontal precip given there is still a connection to the GoM (with some connection to the PAC) with the SW flow in mlvls transporting moisture. 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Don’t they have a tendency to be a few cycles behind?

Not sure, Just going but what they have here is says valid 12z today just going by their qpf map would lend to believe that that would be a more eastern track.

[MJO812]

FWIW the icon is a weak storm 

[weatherwiz]

It's just odd b/c how the isobars are laid out does not match guidance at all. I don't even think a blend of guidance would yield that.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It's just odd b/c how the isobars are laid out does not match guidance at all. I don't even think a blend of guidance would yield that.

Actually on second look...it seems to match the euro quite well. Although I'm not sure if that kink in the 1020 isobar is really related to where the cold front is..at least based on streamlines anyways...

[jbenedet]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There may also be a seasonal aspect to this.. We are still technically not into the longer wave length R-wave time of the year, such that these EPO vicissitudes may not be taking place in the best "scaffolding" ... 

That said, I really am strongly confident in my observation that this trough has corrected toward a shallower meridian depth coming east of the Rockies, comparing the runs from two days ago.  This may be correction owing to the fact that the ridge is further west - which full circle ...may be related to the -EPO happening in a subtly less than ideal R-wave construct... Lotta of chicken and egg and complexity there..  But in the end, the trough plumbs to about Nebraska and suddenly stops in the Euro and just starts moving E... that's the ball-game if that happens.  Next! 

Maybe it'll correct but I really believe it starts with that ridge bumping E some. If so, we start to see that trough carve deeper toward the TV and there we go. 

Hmm can you elaborate on this? Or any  good references on it? My personal reference range for this is roughly the period from a month after the autumnal equinox to a month before the vernal equinox. (Approx late October to late February)