Lava Rock Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Wasting cold air in early November, sadly it might be our coldest air until January/February... The second half of November and most of December look pretty fairly warm. I can see why some are panicking already, writing off December already.Break out the valium 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol, Nice weenie add to the like button i might say. I figured it would save us from a lot of the bun-only posts this winter. Just pile on a weenie full of likes. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I figured it would save us from a lot of the bun-only posts this winter. Just pile on a weenie full of likes. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well they be frozen to the ground now so they should have done it anyways. Read an article that said to leave the leaves on the ground. Gives the insects a place to hibernate. Ah, no. yeah, I hear ticks love to have warm and cozy places to sleep....I remove all leaves and cut the grass extra short at the end of the year, everything you are not suppose to do, but no ticks>green grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Looks like it's snowing on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like it's snowing on the Cape. Congrats James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well they be frozen to the ground now so they should have done it anyways. Read an article that said to leave the leaves on the ground. Gives the insects a place to hibernate. Ah, no. Why would the article recommend giving/letting insects have a place to hide? and ticks love cool damp leaves to breed.I want to kill them all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The weeklies showed that, but two things. One is that the end of the EPS certainly did not show a black hole near AK. The other is that the weeklies have been total voodoo lately in week 3 and 4. Sure one or two runs may work out, but I honestly don't hold a lot of wait with them. The seasonal didn't show a torchy December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Jma looks okay to start December too for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Doesn't he owe you an apology? Meh he went all in too early. Pre season jitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The seasonal didn't show a torchy December. I'll have to take a peak. I don't see anything glaring for December either, but I'm no Pope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The seasonal didn't show a torchy December. Many seasonal forecasters have Dec as the ‘worst’ month though. Do we trust Modelogy or Meterology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 28F. Graupel on the cars this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Is it going to snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Many seasonal forecasters have Dec as the ‘worst’ month though. Do we trust Modelogy or Meterology? We certainly don’t trust seasonal forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Meh he went all in too early. Pre season jitters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is it going to snow? Hopefully but we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 31 and falling when I left home at 6:30. First time below 33 this fall. Still had crickets a few nights ago, but don't think I'll hear them again until next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 28F. Graupel on the cars this morning. 26° here and we picked up graupel/snow grains as well for an official trace. Perhaps next week we add some measurable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Maybe next Friday or Saturday threat? At least the trough is over the East at that time, despite some moderation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is it going to snow? What I really, really want to do and have been wanting to do for nearly the past decade is take the daily values of the NAO, AO, PNA (and whatever other indices daily values are available for) and create like a weekly or bi-weekly dataset. I know looking at height fields is the way to go, but the raw numbers do provide some value...one of the values is you can quickly see transitions then view that period visually. Doing so though is not as easy as just adding up two weeks of values and dividing by 14. I'm thinking of emailing someone at CPC for perhaps some input. Anyways with the seasonal forecasting discussion, I don't think it gets the respect it deserves. In reality, seasonal forecasting can be more accurate than forecasting 3-days out. Utilizing all the data available, understanding climo, and how the atmosphere sorta of works can provide tremendous insight into how the atmosphere may evolve moving forward...and there is tremendous success in doing so. Only issue is when someone forecasts a "great" pattern 7-weeks out and that pattern doesn't produce snow it's called a bust...even though the pattern verified. It's one thing to forecast patterns, but that pattern producing is dependent on numerous other factors which aren't necessarily tied into the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe next Friday or Saturday threat? At least the trough is over the East at that time, despite some moderation. that's what I was referring too a page or so back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe next Friday or Saturday threat? At least the trough is over the East at that time, despite some moderation. Interesting LR pattern developing around Tday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe next Friday or Saturday threat? At least the trough is over the East at that time, despite some moderation. That's kind of how last year happened. Storm came up the coast in a moderating airmass...but models initially moderated it too quickly and as we got closer and closer it turned into a big front ender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 This is a much better pattern vs last November and it appears to be reasonably durable. As the weeks advance, snow chances will increase. Keep realistic expectations folks. Kevin melting d/t bare ground in November trolled all of you...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: In all honesty, something does not seem right. There is no reason to be 2F colder at 950' compared to ORH. And despite atmospheric physics defying logic in TOL..the lapse rate is not 1.5F/100' there. I was at 23F when I left my house this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was at 23F when I left my house this morning 50 miles north and near 1100ft. I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just looked outside and have some flurries flying, first of the season...30.9 atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this one is rapidly trending into a cutter. I think you and Scott ( I think it was .. ) kinda nailed it three days ago, when you were discussing the particulars with the ridge in the west. From what I've just seen of the overnight guidance, this is simplified: the ridge is too far west. Because of that, as the trough amplifies it's only going to be able to gain so much meridional depth coming east of the Rockies ( to satisfy the total L/W spacing). So it bottoms out early and the flow is stretched west-east. Which I'm not saying it will go on to verify that way; this is an eval of what the models have morphed over the last two days. But if the ridge in the west were say, 10 deg longitude ( or so ) east, the trough gets conserved in the N/S, and then you get feed-backs .. Like increased leading confluence and arming high pressure over eastern Canada ...enhancing baroclinicity ... bottom of the trough ignites low that comes up underneath and yadda yadda yadda. It's just a weird nuance in this amplitude - which who knows... It may very well go on into the history books that way. It's too bad for storm enthusiasts, because this is a rare time that the flow over the Gulf looks compressible enough to me. We'll get a +3 SD ridge over the Dakotas in two weeks, with a 50 v-max diving SE over ORD, ...whith 588 heights over Atlantic Georgia - you think this is pisser, wait 'till you see the toaster bath that causes. But, the teleconnectors can't elucidate that type of particular idiosyncrasy - all they can do is signal interesting time periods and then it is hoped such details remain better behaved. Because the truth is, the west-east biased version of the +PNA/-EPO isn't physically impossible, within the confines of an otherwise tele-based promising correction event - which is pure statistics. In a way, it's really no different than a west or east -based NAO: both are negative( positive) but they have most discerned different impacts on eastern Canada/NE U.S. As far as the Lakes cutter... I'm not even seeing that much frankly in some of these guidance'. Some of them are instantiating the low over the eastern Lakes on the polar boundary - not sure that's same thing but... heh. I mean it's not like the low cut threw anywhere doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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