ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Nice cold shot on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 7 hours ago, powderfreak said: It's going to be noticeable. Humid evening and night. I actually am looking forward to being able to open the sliding doors and not pay for heat. A preview of the winter storm track...….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 70/68 Halloween pm and night.,Kids candy melting in bags. Parents checking candy that is mush 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 70/68 Halloween pm and night.,Kids candy melting in bags. Parents checking candy that is mush Surprised you aren't pimping the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Surprised you aren't pimping the wind Is kind of funny BOX is pimping for EMA and ERI while the Euro says western and central areas are gusting near 50 and the east is meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Is kind of funny BOX is pimping for EMA and ERI while the Euro says western and central areas are gusting near 50 and the east is meh Strongest LLJ is east, euro wind maps suck as we all know. However, the strong LLJ is widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Strongest LLJ is east, euro wind maps suck as we all know. However, the strong LLJ is widespread. It is? What level are you calling LLJ. Euro has best convective cells west which die out going east hence its highest wind gusts west. Euro might overdo wind gusts but it seems to be good on location. Still early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Surprised you aren't pimping the wind I am. I’m thinking all of us see gusts 50+. LLJ on sounding Ryan sent us is eye popping. With the warmth and dews no inversion . Let’s hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It is? What level are you calling LLJ. Euro has best convective cells west which die out going east hence its highest wind gusts west. Euro might overdo wind gusts but it seems to be good on location. Still early 925mb. That's the best proxy with these events. But we are talking a magnitude of only 5-10kt difference from west to east really. I don't agree with Cape having the winds as many times near ocean areas are inverted with these setups as warm air aloft floods in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 Let’s go belly to belly-been a long time.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 925mb. That's the best proxy with these events. But we are talking a magnitude of only 5-10kt difference from west to east really. I don't agree with Cape having the winds as many times near ocean areas are inverted with these setups as warm air aloft floods in. I agree...this isn't really a big wind event for the Cape. Unlike the last system which saw pressure gradient enhancement followed by CAA these winds will have to be more convectively-driven...so unless we see a pretty impressive squall line bigger winds will be more isolated in nature. Even though there might be a weakened inversion in this situation, extremely poor moist-adiabatic lapse rates are going to hinder momentum transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: I agree...this isn't really a big wind event for the Cape. Unlike the last system which saw pressure gradient enhancement followed by CAA these winds will have to be more convectively-driven...so unless we see a pretty impressive squall line bigger winds will be more isolated in nature. Even though there might be a weakened inversion in this situation, extremely poor moist-adiabatic lapse rates are going to hinder momentum transport. I actually think it's more synoptic vs fine-line. I mean fine line of convection may do it, but I think we overrate that. I've had many of these areas of intense rains move through and the wind isn't any higher than what I've seen in the hours prior to it. Anyways, it's probably the standard 50-60 in max gusts for now with advisories or low end warnings. There is time either way to take 'em up or down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Let’s go belly to belly-been a long time.... Same shot of Dolphins winning out rest of year if your S of a GYX, Laconia, Woodford VT line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I actually think it's more synoptic vs fine-line. I mean fine line of convection may do it, but I think we overrate that. I've had many of these areas of intense rains move through and the wind isn't any higher than what I've seen in the hours prior to it. Anyways, it's probably the standard 50-60 in max gusts for now with advisories or low end warnings. There is time either way to take 'em up or down. Yeah...I don't necessarily think the winds happen within the line or heavier pockets of rain themselves...but moreso just out ahead of them (guess that could be more synoptic related than convective?) I agree...50-60 max sounds quite reasonable. Too bad we are just off the Lakes. Kevin would be going wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 10 hours ago, dendrite said: The days should really start cooling off now once the sun starts setting at 430. Yeah, but the earlier sunrise is going to kill the overnight lows! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Even wind chill watches/warnings in MT, WY, and CO...this is freaking nuts. Wind chills as low as -30. WTF is going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Even wind chill watches/warnings in MT, WY, and CO...this is freaking nuts. Wind chills as low as -30. WTF is going on Pushing Novie in the northern Rockies. It's anomalous, but it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Even wind chill watches/warnings in MT, WY, and CO...this is freaking nuts. Wind chills as low as -30. WTF is going on And you’re in your 30’s now...the world is crumbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I actually think it's more synoptic vs fine-line. I mean fine line of convection may do it, but I think we overrate that. I've had many of these areas of intense rains move through and the wind isn't any higher than what I've seen in the hours prior to it. Anyways, it's probably the standard 50-60 in max gusts for now with advisories or low end warnings. There is time either way to take 'em up or down. That's what the Euro has Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Same shot of Dolphins winning out rest of year if your S of a GYX, Laconia, Woodford VT line Such is our climo. However 1993-94 went b to b. As did 2002-03 (arguably). 93-94 was the poster child of winter locking in for 2 months solid save for a 2 day thaw around 2/1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Even wind chill watches/warnings in MT, WY, and CO...this is freaking nuts. Wind chills as low as -30. WTF is going on Cold west, warm east pattern for the winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 35 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pushing Novie in the northern Rockies. It's anomalous, but it happens. These anomalous events are happening so much more frequently that eventually they won't be so anomalous. Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: Cold west, warm east pattern for the winter? nahhh...I doubt this pattern remains through the winter. Using a combination of the little I know about long-range and form what I read from the experts on twitter it seems like this is strongly correlated to some crazy +MT and -AAM (maybe its -MT)...eventually though I guess for momentum to be restored or for equilibrium something has to give and things will relax...or even reverse. Part of me wonders if it has to do with the seasonal transition as well and due to factors like MT, AAM, etc the transition period is leading to some anomalous times but as that transition becomes more "seasonal" it will relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: These anomalous events are happening so much more frequently that eventually they won't be so anomalous. Yeah not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 As a kid growing up, I remember temperatures-50F or colder sometimes in bumfuk, MT with pretty good frequency 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Yeah not really idk... I think a strong argument can be made for that. Crazy anomalous events are becoming more frequent...at least the patterns which yield those potential outcomes are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: As a kid growing up, I remember temperatures-50F or colder sometimes in bumfuk, MT with pretty good frequency In early November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: idk... I think a strong argument can be made for that. Crazy anomalous events are becoming more frequent...at least the patterns which yield those potential outcomes are. The world is also increasingly networked, so our ability to detect and distribute information about such events has proliferated. I'm sure you'd see that if you looked at a few decades of tornado reporting. It's possible a similar pattern emerges with other phenomena, even outside weather. News stories that would never escape the local newspaper can become national or international in nature in minutes with social networks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: In early November? Not that cold but well below zilch some times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Wiz gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: idk... I think a strong argument can be made for that. Crazy anomalous events are becoming more frequent...at least the patterns which yield those potential outcomes are. Nah...you’re way to young first of all to remember the old days. And with the internet/phones/social media...everything is sensationalized...period. Hype it up...it sells! It happens..it’s not historic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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