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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Strongest LLJ is east, euro wind maps suck as we all know. However, the strong LLJ is widespread.

It is? What level are you calling LLJ. Euro has best convective cells west which die out going east hence its highest wind gusts west. Euro might overdo wind gusts but it seems to be good on location.  Still early 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It is? What level are you calling LLJ. Euro has best convective cells west which die out going east hence its highest wind gusts west. Euro might overdo wind gusts but it seems to be good on location.  Still early 

925mb. That's the best proxy with these events. But we are talking a magnitude of only 5-10kt difference from west to east really. I don't agree with Cape having the winds as many times near ocean areas are inverted with these setups as warm air aloft floods in. 

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

925mb. That's the best proxy with these events. But we are talking a magnitude of only 5-10kt difference from west to east really. I don't agree with Cape having the winds as many times near ocean areas are inverted with these setups as warm air aloft floods in. 

I agree...this isn't really a big wind event for the Cape. Unlike the last system which saw pressure gradient enhancement followed by CAA these winds will have to be more convectively-driven...so unless we see a pretty impressive squall line bigger winds will be more isolated in nature. 

Even though there might be a weakened inversion in this situation, extremely poor moist-adiabatic lapse rates are going to hinder momentum transport. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I agree...this isn't really a big wind event for the Cape. Unlike the last system which saw pressure gradient enhancement followed by CAA these winds will have to be more convectively-driven...so unless we see a pretty impressive squall line bigger winds will be more isolated in nature. 

Even though there might be a weakened inversion in this situation, extremely poor moist-adiabatic lapse rates are going to hinder momentum transport. 

I actually think it's more synoptic vs fine-line. I mean fine line of convection may do it, but I think we overrate that. I've had many of these areas of intense rains move through and the wind isn't any higher than what I've seen in the hours prior to it. Anyways, it's probably the standard 50-60 in max gusts for now with advisories or low end warnings. There is time either way to take 'em up or down. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I actually think it's more synoptic vs fine-line. I mean fine line of convection may do it, but I think we overrate that. I've had many of these areas of intense rains move through and the wind isn't any higher than what I've seen in the hours prior to it. Anyways, it's probably the standard 50-60 in max gusts for now with advisories or low end warnings. There is time either way to take 'em up or down. 

Yeah...I don't necessarily think the winds happen within the line or heavier pockets of rain themselves...but moreso just out ahead of them (guess that could be more synoptic related than convective?) I agree...50-60 max sounds quite reasonable.

Too bad we are just off the Lakes. Kevin would be going wild. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually think it's more synoptic vs fine-line. I mean fine line of convection may do it, but I think we overrate that. I've had many of these areas of intense rains move through and the wind isn't any higher than what I've seen in the hours prior to it. Anyways, it's probably the standard 50-60 in max gusts for now with advisories or low end warnings. There is time either way to take 'em up or down. 

That's what the Euro has Scott

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Same shot of Dolphins winning out rest of year if your S of a GYX, Laconia, Woodford VT line 

Such is our climo.  However 1993-94 went b to b. As did 2002-03 (arguably).  93-94 was the poster child of winter locking in for 2 months solid save for a 2 day thaw around 2/1.

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35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pushing Novie in the northern Rockies. It's anomalous, but it happens.

These anomalous events are happening so much more frequently that eventually they won't be so anomalous.

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Cold west, warm east pattern for the winter?

nahhh...I doubt this pattern remains through the winter. Using a combination of the little I know about long-range and form what I read from the experts on twitter  it seems like this is strongly correlated to some crazy +MT and -AAM (maybe its -MT)...eventually though I guess for momentum to be restored or for equilibrium something has to give and things will relax...or even reverse. 

Part of me wonders if it has to do with the seasonal transition as well and due to factors like MT, AAM, etc the transition period is leading to some anomalous times but as that transition becomes more "seasonal" it will relax

 

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

idk...

I think a strong argument can be made for that. Crazy anomalous events are becoming more frequent...at least the patterns which yield those potential outcomes are. 

The world is also increasingly networked, so our ability to detect and distribute information about such events has proliferated. I'm sure you'd see that if you looked at a few decades of tornado reporting. It's possible a similar pattern emerges with other phenomena, even outside weather. News stories that would never escape the local newspaper can become national or international in nature in minutes with social networks. 

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40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

idk...

I think a strong argument can be made for that. Crazy anomalous events are becoming more frequent...at least the patterns which yield those potential outcomes are. 

Nah...you’re way to young first of all to remember the old days.  And with the internet/phones/social media...everything is sensationalized...period.   Hype it up...it sells!  It happens..it’s not historic.

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