dendrite Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 At least it has something and the R/S line through New England. Still an elongated pos at this point, but who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 What do y'all want in early Novie? I'm pretty happy with these threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Here you go.....12z Ukie has BIrving's cutter next week is going to set November snowfall records for each and all. I quit the cutter club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: What do y'all want in early Novie? I'm pretty happy with these threats. True, but early season snows are seemingly becoming somewhat regular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Don't these elongated systems typically congeal into a more traditional storm threat as we near? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Potential is there....details TBD. There was a fundamental shift in the longwave ridge axis out west this run...it was a solid 500-700 miles west of the 00z run which is why we get this hugger potential....and probably why the Ukie actually showed a cutter. That type of a shift is a big deal. But a lot of what is driving this is still in the arctic....this is the result what is going on with the EPO block. So I'd expect some swings until we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What do y'all want in early Novie? I'm pretty happy with these threats. Sorta like saying the 19 year old pitcher in Rookie league is the future ace of the staff lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 For the cold and dry weenies....record low maxes would get obliterated next Wednesday if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 It's interesting watching the models go out of their way to engineer distractions to this thing ... ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 There is some pretty hefty potential next week. I don't think we'll see one potent storm system...but there could be a firehose of moisture streaming up the east coast with a great deal of convergence and plenty of cold air nearby...some Pacific moisture gets injected, GoM, and even some Atlantic moisture. Big area of HP over the central U.S. with flow around providing llvl cold and huge HP in the Atlantic with the flow helping to aid in convergence. A front stalls over us and numerous waves of low pressure traverse the front. the north probably wins out but dang...this is juicy (the euro has similarities too) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Potential is there....details TBD. There was a fundamental shift in the longwave ridge axis out west this run...it was a solid 500-700 miles west of the 00z run which is why we get this hugger potential....and probably why the Ukie actually showed a cutter. That type of a shift is a big deal. But a lot of what is driving this is still in the arctic....this is the result what is going on with the EPO block. So I'd expect some swings until we get closer. Yeah, in general these EPO ridges and PV dropping in usually aren't offshore deals...but lots of time left. Another threat day 9 too. Can't ask for much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, in general these EPO ridges and PV dropping in usually aren't offshore deals...but lots of time left. Another threat day 9 too. Can't ask for much more. Those are the types were SNE pulls out a ping fest or some icing and CNE snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, in general these EPO ridges and PV dropping in usually aren't offshore deals...but lots of time left. Another threat day 9 too. Can't ask for much more. Yep, there's a lot of Novembers we don't sniff a single decent threat. But this year probably has everyone particularly antsy because we get the usual long wait from the summer, but it comes on top of last November when we had a widespread warning snowfall in the middle of the month. Pretty rare occurrence. This next threat has a legit airmass provided we get on the correct side of the low....so it's going to be almost exclusively about where the trough/ridge axis set up in response the EPO block and shortwave coming down the east side of it. It has high-end potential because of the deep meridional flow for this time of the year....usually in November we're struggling to get the PJ that far south. But at the same time, it's still a bit of a needle-threader because we need to push the front offshore but not too far as to suppress the system. If we don't push the front far enough, then we risk a cutter or interior hugger. But if this next one doesn't work out, there's yet another one behind it as you mentioned. Multiple shots here in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For the cold and dry weenies....record low maxes would get obliterated next Wednesday if that verified. I’m 50 years old and can only remember walking on pond ice a handful of times before mid-December in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m 50 years old and can only remember walking on pond ice a handful of times before mid-December in SNE. You might get your shot this year.....esp if its a shallow pond....if things work out "favorably", then it could be like 5+ days straight struggling to get above 35F or so with very cold nights. If we can somehow get some snow cover next Tuesday first, then it would be even a bit colder. I'd obviously fade those chances at this range, but there's potential for pretty intense cold that lasts more than just a day or two...maybe reload in there somewhere too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Shocking. Cold and dry next week. Glad that’s been our train 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shocking. Cold and dry next week. Glad that’s been our train If you ignore the hugger the Euro had....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shocking. Cold and dry next week. Glad that’s been our train Dry? perhaps if you live in CA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Dry? perhaps if you live in CA For some odd reason I now like the odds of a storm hitting SNE next week. May be rain or snow or both but the call for dry has made me push all my chips into the center of the table for a bet on a storm. Choo Choo...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 hybrid type system developing offshore on Euro. Lol Hopefully that can get infused for our next snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You might get your shot this year.....esp if its a shallow pond....if things work out "favorably", then it could be like 5+ days straight struggling to get above 35F or so with very cold nights. If we can somehow get some snow cover next Tuesday first, then it would be even a bit colder. I'd obviously fade those chances at this range, but there's potential for pretty intense cold that lasts more than just a day or two...maybe reload in there somewhere too. I guess the new word this season is “Fade?” I mean a few of you have been throwing that term out there already...lol. Nothing wrong with this type of potential this early..good stuff imo. Maybe none of it works out, we’ve seen that happen many times, and that’s completely on the table. But to have an upcoming pattern like this, and this early is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What do y'all want in early Novie? I'm pretty happy with these threats. They want to steal our snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: They want to steal our snow! You’re stealing our snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m 50 years old and can only remember walking on pond ice a handful of times before mid-December in SNE. Could you last year? That Thanksgiving time cold shot was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: For some odd reason I now like the odds of a storm hitting SNE next week. May be rain or snow or both but the call for dry has made me push all my chips into the center of the table for a bet on a storm. Choo Choo...... The prospects are definitely there for something...whether "storm" is the proper word. There's going to be a front moving through with some major differences between what is in place tomorrow into Friday. Plenty of opportunity to keep colder air locked in the lower troposphere...pretty strong southwesterly MLJ should pump in plenty of moisture. I guess the biggest question will be is with [assuming likelihood of multiple waves] the strength of the waves and how they interact with whatever is in place aloft. Plenty of sfc convergence along the east coast though so something hopefully gives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: You’re stealing our snow! Hey I let you steal it during the middle of the winter when it’s -25C at 850 up here. Don’t steal my November and March snows when the seasonal baroclinic zone is more favorable for up north . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 I thought the euro gave enough snow during the second 1/2 of the event to keep me happy considering the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I guess the new word this season is “Fade?” I mean a few of you have been throwing that term out there already...lol. Nothing wrong with this type of potential this early..good stuff imo. Maybe none of it works out, we’ve seen that happen many times, and that’s completely on the table. But to have an upcoming pattern like this, and this early is a good thing. Fade is actually a gambling term I used to use all the time back in the day during my blackjack excursion lifetime....but didn't really apply it to weather. It has become more mainstream now given the popularity and legality of sports betting. So yeah, it seems it's been picked up here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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