MJOatleast7 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh, 'cept it wouldn't be "gradient flow," in the sense that it's just circumstantial with some pattern we gotta deal with. Not that you think so...just sayn'. The problem with the heights in the south is a global one. It's vaster and longer than circumstantial to pattern(s). I can refer users/members/readers to lots of formal papers describing the Hadley Cell ballooning and encroaching into the lower Ferrel latitudes. I used to refer to this as the "Miami rule" back in the day, ..and it still works actually, even though I was blissfully unaware, then, that what I was observing was the early onset of the former. I did a statistical analysis of east coast storms years ago ( talking 2002 or 2003 ), and found that 72 hours prior to the storm genesis ( usually when the governing mechanics are still not yet arrived/crossed the 100 W longitude ) if/when heights were > 582 DAM over Miami, and wind speeds were > than 35 kts, the Miami rule was in effect. Then, as the S/Ws succeeded that ~ 100 W their southern aspects began to absorb wave mechanics into the preexisting balanced upward wind anomaly. The troughs tended to morph into a positive slope geometry ...and onward, this then of course mitigated cyclogen parametrics - not absolutely... Just in part. But sometimes that part might be large, and mid range storms ended up weaker. 2001 March being foisted above the M/A and busting a lot of forecasts was a particular operational nightmare that might have been avoided if these markers were noted ( which they were in place ) prior to the big vortex attempt by the models to plumb it through the M/A. It did, but distribution perturbed by the S-SE Hadley expression..etc..etc. It depends also on other factors. None of this precludes storms. That's not the correct read. Its about morphology and in many cases, speed of events as they caught up in a concomitantly faster flow. Although I do believe slow moving juggernauts are rarefying in lieu of middling events in succession, as increasing in tendency. There's two types of ridging over the Gulf and Florida/adjacent SW Atlantic. There is ephemeral ridging that rolls out ahead of deep troughs that are plunging toward TX. These heights may briefly rise, but don't usually have the attending > 35 kt geostrophic wind. The other type is canvased and linked/rooted in Planetary events, and is there at all times. This latter form, is the one that compresses and speeds up the flow as a rest state regardless, and is also an aspect of the swelling Hadley Cell. The other option is just have the damn HC over take our latitudes ( but I wonder if that is geo-physically even possible ..) but then winters are a thing of the past as we know them. Hey, why not have the whole planet be one ginormous Hadley cell. Like Mars or Titan. Meridional flow pole to pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He’s struggling...Baldy! Them fighting words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Are computer models not running today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: That was a record early melt. Almost got it on his birthday. You could see it brewing yesterday like the Yellowstone caldera. I think the anger has been boiling over since the lack of dews the 2nd half of summer. Emo weather. You could see it coming on even the day before when he was asking Scott what the chances were of the euro being over amped as the snow threat was slipping away like the sands thru the hour glass of the days of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: Are computer models not running today? No ...because there's a big storm next week. We did a statistical correlation out of frustration/tongue-in-cheek back in college, and found that indeed... there was a tendency for some dipshit to kick the plug out of the wall down at NCEP whenever the pattern looked particularly interesting - ...of course, we're taking liberties there with the "cause" for the delays/outages, but, sufficed it is to say, there is an eerie 'gremlin' there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Are computer models not running today? There running, 12z Nam is done and the 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: No ...because there's a big storm next week. We did a statistical correlation out of frustration/tongue-in-cheek back in college, and found that indeed... there was a tendency for some dipshit to kick the plug out of the wall down at NCEP whenever the pattern looked particularly interesting - ...of course, we're taking liberties there with the "cause" for the delays/outages, but, sufficed it is to say, there is an eerie 'gremlin' there. Brian shut them down until were inside day 3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: No ...because there's a big storm next week. We did a statistical correlation out of frustration/tongue-in-cheek back in college, and found that indeed... there was a tendency for some dipshit to kick the plug out of the wall down at NCEP whenever the pattern looked particularly interesting - ...of course, we're taking liberties there with the "cause" for the delays/outages, but, sufficed it is to say, there is an eerie 'gremlin' there. 1 minute ago, dryslot said: There running, 12z Nam is done and the 3K Where at? I've checked Cod, tropicalridbits, and pivotal and there is no 12z runs and 6z barely finished. Trying to find out if there are any issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: There should probably be new rules here. 1. No snow maps beyond d3 2. No 2m temp maps beyond d4 3. No QPF maps beyond d5 4. No op maps beyond d8 5. Only ens H5 heights beyond d10 6. No ICON, SREFs, or d3+ NAM at all. None. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200. Back to Eastern and WWBB... no storm threat threads until 4 days out of less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Found it... NOAA data center is having problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Where at? I've checked Cod, tropicalridbits, and pivotal and there is no 12z runs and 6z barely finished. Trying to find out if there are any issues SV, Pivotal, Weathermodels.com........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 This is utterly fascinating for us nerds.. This is a real phenomenon known as "arctic ( or polar ) low" .. I've never actually seen a model try this, but boo rah for the GGEM for having the plumbs to give it a "whirl" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: Found it... NOAA data center is having problems Surprising because my pay site is up to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: SV, Pivotal, Weathermodels.com, now I see it on pivotal...I swear it wasn't there 10-minutes ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 I don’t think I’ve observed a pattern this favorable combined with this level of weenie angst...at least not since last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: now I see it on pivotal...I swear it wasn't there 10-minutes ago lol You ok?............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Some need to pump the brakes, Its only november, And we already saw what happened with the threat for the 7th-8th by some on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You ok?............................ Not in the slightest lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 11 hours ago, weathafella said: Wasn’t there a storm around 1980 that hit metro west? Don't know its full extent, but 11/17-18 that year brought 8-12" from PWM to BGR and points west. Only 2" where I then lived in Ft. Kent. During the 70s and 80s the 4 places I've lived in Maine (BGR, Fort Kent, Gardiner, New Sharon) had among them more than a dozen events of 10"-21", and I managed to be in the wrong place for every one. Yes it’s 89. Had a good storm. Rode my sled around the neighborhood that morning before T Day dinner. A good 6 or 7 inches fell. Only a few tenths in flurries, but the T-day max of 17 is easily the coldest for my 13 Novembers in Gardiner. Far more interesting was the thunderblizzard 2 days earlier that ushered in the 6 weeks of brutal cold. Temps for the 41 days 11/22-12/31 were 15.0° BN at Farmington, with 34 of those days at least 10 BN and 7 more than -20. Cold left the building after that but snows continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Found it... NOAA data center is having problems Told ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: You ok?............................ It probably wasn't there lol. There has been problems this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Told ya The best is when everyone's favorite sites crash b/c of server overload from all the refresh requests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: It probably wasn't there lol. There has been problems this morning. It was though on pivotal......lol, I see tropical tidbits doesn't have it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: The best is when everyone's favorite sites crash b/c of server overload from all the refresh requests You mean like AMWX if it looks like NYC is in the game? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Yeah that 00z GGEM was the fun solution for today's date - so far... That's a 24 hour high impact snow and wind coastal on that dreamy solution. And since the flow is happenstance marginally compressible along and < the 35th parallel down there, the slower movement overall can happen - ho man.. Problem is, ...other than this being the GGEM, is that I've seen that modeled like that and then those HC heights correct up in time and then interference kicks in ... and there's your extended modulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The best is when everyone's favorite sites crash b/c of server overload from all the refresh requests True, but that's a load balancing issue with networking and inherent limitations with internet traffic doing that - one should expect that. This other phenomenon seems to invent/emerge as though on-purpose just to butt bang at precisely the sorest butt time - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Found it... NOAA data center is having problems The more alarming issue is... that you’re frivolously looking for them in the first place. Are you really ok? we are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The more alarming issue is... that you’re frivolously looking for them in the first place. Are you really ok? we are concerned. He's just jonesing to pull the trigger on his May thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: He's just jonesing to pull the trigger on his May thread. You know he’ll lose it when the first cold outbreak hits and starts hunting for severe outbreaks in the southern hemisphere as he’s hugging his electric portable heater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The more alarming issue is... that you’re frivolously looking for them in the first place. Are you really ok? we are concerned. the models? well...kinda need them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now