November 2019 discussion

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Elaborate a tad Ant, if you will?

Gfs develops a low that ends up offshore. Gives coastal areas and Inland areas light snow but it's also really cold.  The Pna ridge looks really good out west.

It wouldn't take much to have the low further west .

[MJO812]

A few inches on the gfs for coastal SNE and interior sections.

[WinterWolf]

Well it definitely looks interesting going forward..thanks for And appreciate the explanations my friend.  Cold air looks to be established..especially for early November which is impressive.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well it definitely looks interesting going forward..thanks for And appreciate the explanations my friend.  Cold air looks to be established..especially for early November which is impressive.

The cold air on this run is incredible.  Well below normal for November standards. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The cold air on this run is incredible.  Well below normal for November standards. 

Impressive for sure.  What’s the old saying...Get us the cold, and the snow will come...? 

[MJO812]

Nice coastal snowstorm on the cmc. Pretty similar to the euro.

[ma blizzard]

5 hours ago, Hoth said:

How did November 1950 go down? Obviously centered over the Apps, but was that a SPV subsume scenario?

[Greg]

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We have had anomalous snows in late October and early April over the last generation, one of these years the mid November period is gonna see a Major snow storm over the northeast or at least SNE (18”>) imo . 

My guess is the last 125 years of records are a relatively anomaly (lack of big storms in November) is it that hard in ORH (not Boston) to see a foot of snow in mid November with a cold high and BM cyclogenesis ???

It can happen but it is rare. Not sure about 125 years of weather records being an anomaly, but it does show you the state of what the climate in November has been since then. Both Boston and Worcester can get, as we have seen once and a while, 3"-6" and 4"-8" storms. Those are more potentially viable with the right set up as you have alluded to. The only storm in history I have seen in records is the Portland Gale of November 26-27 1898 with a foot or so in Boston proper and about 20" in Worcester.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

CMC is frigid for next weeks storm... hard to believe we can get that type of system this early but seems we have some multi model support... at least for cold 

[MJO812]

Gefs  is amped

Long ways to go

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Hey Anthony (Snow88), man it feels good to finally get cold air worthy of supporting a coastal snow event.  00z GFS prints out almost .750" of QPF for Snow for CHH on the 12th and 13th of NOV.  That coastal storm threat looks so close to being more.  00z CMC looks mighty good.

[Torch Tiger]

We can lock an all-timer November snowstorm for next week. Congrats snow88 and ineedsnow, it is definitely coming, only the details to iron out and nothing will possibly go wrong this time around.

 

[CoastalWx]

Next week is certainly something to watch. You have a wave breaking ridge in AK that helps force the PV south into the US. At the same time, heights across the SE are fairly low, so Tip can sleep better tonight knowing it's not a gradient flow. However, the flow gets a little more progressive with a kicker in the flow coming into the Plains. But given the time of year, that is a very sharp trough with very cold air impinging of warm waters off the East Coast. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Cold , dry , fast flow next week. At least pond skating will start early this year. Black, glare ice by mid week 

[MaineJayhawk]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cold , dry , fast flow next week. At least pond skating will start early this year. Black, glare ice by mid week 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nov 2000 was basically a shutout. Maybe a few tenths. Cold but not much for snow in SNE. I remember a lot of LES that month though out in Ithaca where I was. We didn't get the monster event that BUF got pre-thanksgiving but a lot of multiband type NW flow events. 

We do tend to get a 4-8" type event in interior SNE every 3-4 years or so in November. Off the top of my head, we had last year, then 2014, 2012, 2005, 2002, 1997, 1995, 1991 etc. But it's very rare we get multiple such events in the month. 

We've had two white thanks givings with accumulation/plowable since 2014 in northern Middlesex, fwiw - or maybe it was one .. But, I recall returning from Va Beach that weekend and there was still snow remaining, I think three years ago. 

[Torch Tiger]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cold , dry , fast flow next week. At least pond skating will start early this year. Black, glare ice by mid week 

what a downer, wow

[Ericjcrash]

While in the teens and low 20s. Lol.

[Torch Tiger]

Definitely need to hoist a new thread for the epic snowstorm next week

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cold , dry , fast flow next week. At least pond skating will start early this year. Black, glare ice by mid week 

What a melt

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a melt

 Just wait until next week when you get 4 inches of pure arctic powder while the interior is flurries.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Just wait until next week when you get 4 inches of pure arctic powder while the interior is flurries.

I'll favor the interior for anything this time of year. 6z EPS has a decent signal. 

[dendrite]

There should probably be new rules here.

1. No snow maps beyond d3

2. No 2m temp maps beyond d4

3. No QPF maps beyond d5

4. No op maps beyond d8

5. Only ens H5 heights beyond d10

6. No ICON, SREFs, or d3+ NAM at all. None. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a melt

That was a record early melt. Almost got it on his birthday. You could see it brewing yesterday like the Yellowstone caldera. I think the anger has been boiling over since the lack of dews the 2nd half of summer. Emo weather.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I mean how do you not like what you see for next week.  The 00z CMC had a bomb passing 25nm east of CHH in 6 days or so, the GFS is on point still, we just need a cleaner phase to occur and within 7 days of time, it is plenty to work with.

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I mean how do you not like what you see for next week.  The 00z CMC had a bomb passing 25nm east of CHH in 6 days or so, the GFS is on point still, we just need a cleaner phase to occur and within 7 days of time, it is plenty to work with.

I agree what you trying to get at James but it is 6.5 days away right now. That's the whole idea. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

I agree what you trying to get at James but it is 6.5 days away right now. That's the whole idea. 

Oh I know Greg, not really excited, just piqued my interest at this point.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week is certainly something to watch. You have a wave breaking ridge in AK that helps force the PV south into the US. At the same time, heights across the SE are fairly low, so Tip can sleep better tonight knowing it's not a gradient flow. However, the flow gets a little more progressive with a kicker in the flow coming into the Plains. But given the time of year, that is a very sharp trough with very cold air impinging of warm waters off the East Coast. 

Heh,  'cept it wouldn't be "gradient flow," in the sense that it's just circumstantial with some pattern we gotta deal with.  Not that you think so...just sayn'.   

The problem with the heights in the south is a global one.  It's vaster and longer than circumstantial to pattern(s). I can refer users/members/readers to lots of formal papers describing the Hadley Cell ballooning and encroaching into the lower Ferrel latitudes.

I used to refer to this as the "Miami rule" back in the day, ..and it still works actually, even though I was blissfully unaware, then, that what I was observing was the early onset of the former.  I did a statistical analysis of east coast storms years ago ( talking 2002 or 2003 ), and found that 72 hours prior to the storm genesis ( usually when the governing mechanics are still not yet arrived/crossed the 100 W longitude ) if/when heights were > 582 DAM over Miami, and wind speeds were > than 35 kts, the Miami rule was in effect. Then, as the S/Ws succeeded that ~ 100 W their southern aspects began to absorb wave mechanics into the preexisting balanced upward wind anomaly.  The troughs tended to morph into a positive slope geometry ...and onward, this then of course mitigated cyclogen parametrics - not absolutely... Just in part.  But sometimes that part might be large, and mid range storms ended up weaker. 2001 March being foisted above the M/A and busting a lot of forecasts was a particular operational nightmare that might have been avoided if these markers were noted ( which they were in place  ) prior to the big vortex attempt by the models to plumb it through the M/A. It did, but distribution perturbed by the S-SE Hadley expression..etc..etc.   It depends also on other factors. None of this precludes storms. That's not the correct read. Its about morphology and in many cases, speed of events as they caught up in a concomitantly faster flow. Although I do believe slow moving juggernauts are rarefying in lieu of middling events in succession, as increasing in tendency. 

There's two types of ridging over the Gulf and Florida/adjacent SW Atlantic.  There is ephemeral ridging that rolls out ahead of deep troughs that are plunging toward TX. These heights may briefly rise, but don't usually have the attending > 35 kt geostrophic wind.  The other type is canvased and linked/rooted in Planetary events, and is there at all times.  This latter form, is the one that compresses and speeds up the flow as a rest state regardless, and is also an aspect of the swelling Hadley Cell. The other option is just have the damn HC over take our latitudes ( but I wonder if that is geo-physically even possible ..) but then winters are a thing of the past as we know them.   

 

[Torch Tiger]

what a read

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

What a melt

He’s struggling...Badly!