November 2019 discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I also have to wonder how the lower level delta-T at this time of the year would be complicating things...if you get something that deep going over bath water, it will just want to go up like a mushroom cloud. Remember how the models struggled with the extremely anomalous PV lobe diving under New England on Feb 14-15, 2015? It was trying to arc the best dynamics well northeast of the actual intense PVA and upper level support but in the end we got that 6-8 hour nuke job over eastern MA/RI. 

On a smaller scale we also saw that happen on 12/9/05...that was a much smaller upper level feature but it was extremely intense. The vortmax was something like -50/s^2 and when it hit the early December bath water south of LI, it ignited way more than most guidance showed (though the old ETA model back then in its final winter got pretty close to nailing it). 

Regardless, any time you see such anomalous upper level features, it warrants close attention. Probably both skepticism and attention if that makes sense. 

It does .. that's historic 'looking' relative to calendar.  November witch's can be vicious but you don't see those features at this time of year to frequently ... ( the core of that sucker's under 522 dm pasing over 55 F SSTs, and the later delta-T is 16 C between SE of Cape Cod and Worcester.. The thickness ( funny you mentioned 12/05) is right at the packing limit.  Which means, upright elevated frontal plains and very proficiently UVM under the best Q-G forcing,  ... the surface low well.  anyway.  

But the "attention" part you mention is a bit heightened for me because this thing has a loud tele signal and we discussed this three days ago, that we needed to start looking for systems to emerge in this time frame - well... here we are. It's not as easily dismissed.    

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I agree with that, the more likely solution is a sheared mess. If we hypothesized  a real amped setup, though.

But that’s not what you trolled earlier 

[weathafella]

This d8 system could be akin to the day before thanksgiving 1971.

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

There is potential there but jmo, if something decent develops next week, a hugger or even cutter seems far more likely than a cold coastal.

 

5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I agree with that, the more likely solution is a sheared mess. If we hypothesized  a real amped setup, though.

[OSUmetstud]

fake news!

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

This d8 system could be akin to the day before thanksgiving 1971.

This one has a colder overall look....but that '71 storm was an absolute doozy. Gave ORH nearly 15" of snow but the jackpot was actually from about AVP-ALB-RUT where over 2 feet fell in spots. 

The '71 storm was almost a hybrid Miller B. 

Next week looks like a deeper overall longwave trough and further east. So we'll be trying to pull something in from the ocean more than going Miller B...but things can change. 

[OSUmetstud]

Growing up in the lakes November can be very kind, even epic, but I wouldn't think a wintry November in New England is too unusual. 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But that’s not what you trolled earlier 

"if a decent system develops.." I think it hugs, maybe cuts. But that's a guess and assuming we aren't talking about a glorified cfp/weak wave

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This one has a colder overall look....but that '71 storm was an absolute doozy. Gave ORH nearly 15" of snow but the jackpot was actually from about AVP-ALB-RUT where over 2 feet fell in spots. 

The '71 storm was almost a hybrid Miller B. 

Next week looks like a deeper overall longwave trough and further east. So we'll be trying to pull something in from the ocean more than going Miller B...but things can change. 

Grab and pull the big boy...grab and pull.

[The 4 Seasons]

22 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Picture from Hamden during that storm. There are 2 cars buried in there with the wipers just sticking up.

i know exactly where that is. 40" for the win here.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Growing up in the lakes November can be very kind, even epic, but I wouldn't think a wintry November in New England is too unusual. 

NNE elevations and upslope hubs it can be like mid-winter sometimes. Prob the same with lower elevations of N Maine and into the ME foothills. But for most everyone else, it's very tough. 

Sticking out into the Atlantic modifies things so much. It's often our friend in winter but can be a curse early. It can be like pulling teeth to get a storm track to the southeast of us. I'm always amazed at how few 12"+ storms have occurred in November. I think ORH has exactly 2 (Nov 1971 and Nov 1899)...and that's at 1000 feet in the interior. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I'm not sure what snow I ran into driving up to Sugarloaf in early January of 1996. I spent the night in the Eastland Hotel. It was -6F according to the bank thermometer. So much snow in Portland that you couldn't park a car on the street.

Their biggest snows that month came on the 3rd (9") and the 8th (10", north edge of the big mid-Atl blizz) which built the pack top 27" and I'm confident the city had a parking ban in place, SOP for large snow events.  Both those storms came with temps mainly low teens but PWM dropped to-10/-12 on the 5th/6th.

[OSUmetstud]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NNE elevations and upslope hubs it can be like mid-winter sometimes. Prob the same with lower elevations of N Maine and into the ME foothills. But for most everyone else, it's very tough. 

Sticking out into the Atlantic modifies things so much. It's often our friend in winter but can be a curse early. It can be like pulling teeth to get a storm track to the southeast of us. I'm always amazed at how few 12"+ storms have occurred in November. I think ORH has exactly 2 (Nov 1971 and Nov 1899)...and that's at 1000 feet in the interior. 

Interesting, thanks. I figured bigger storms are harder to come by, but maybe a smattering of minor to moderate events could be done? How about something like November 2000? 

[tamarack]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NNE elevations and upslope hubs it can be like mid-winter sometimes. Prob the same with lower elevations of N Maine and into the ME foothills. But for most everyone else, it's very tough. 

Sticking out into the Atlantic modifies things so much. It's often our friend in winter but can be a curse early. It can be like pulling teeth to get a storm track to the southeast of us. I'm always amazed at how few 12"+ storms have occurred in November. I think ORH has exactly 2 (Nov 1971 and Nov 1899)...and that's at 1000 feet in the interior. 

Farmington has recorded only 5 such Novie snowfalls in 125 years, and that includes 21-22, 1961 for which their snow data is missing.  However, all stations from AUG/LEW north and west had 10"+ and places like RUM and Andover had 24-27".  Farmington did record 2.32" precip so my guess is 18".  Their 10.6" on 26-27, 2014 was their 1st double digit snow in 25 years, and the only one I've observed in 46 Maine Novembers (or in all my NJJ Novies.)

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Interesting, thanks. I figured bigger storms are harder to come by, but maybe a smattering of minor to moderate events could be done? How about something like November 2000? 

Nov 2000 was basically a shutout. Maybe a few tenths. Cold but not much for snow in SNE. I remember a lot of LES that month though out in Ithaca where I was. We didn't get the monster event that BUF got pre-thanksgiving but a lot of multiband type NW flow events. 

We do tend to get a 4-8" type event in interior SNE every 3-4 years or so in November. Off the top of my head, we had last year, then 2014, 2012, 2005, 2002, 1997, 1995, 1991 etc. But it's very rare we get multiple such events in the month. 

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nov 2000 was basically a shutout. Maybe a few tenths. Cold but not much for snow in SNE. I remember a lot of LES that month though out in Ithaca where I was. We didn't get the monster event that BUF got pre-thanksgiving but a lot of multiband type NW flow events. 

We do tend to get a 4-8" type event in interior SNE every 3-4 years or so in November. Off the top of my head, we had last year, then 2014, 2012, 2005, 2002, 1997, 1995, 1991 etc. But it's very rare we get multiple such events in the month. 

Yeah we got 45" that month. I think there 2 other decent events beyond the big storm on November 20th. Must have just been cold and dry there, interesting. 

[Hoth]

3 hours ago, Greg said:

I remember the news saying they recorded 40" in Hamden. Not sure how accurate it was with the blowing a drifting. Not sure if people used the six hour snowfall increment method or not in that, that makes a difference, but a very potent band was over them for several hours which can be seen on past radars imagery. Very intense!

 They had 5-6"/hr type snow for a few hours in that death band. Wish I could've been there. As I recall, there were a few towns that reported legit hail in that band, too. Pretty special. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Hoth said:

 They had 5-6"/hr type snow for a few hours in that death band. Wish I could've been there. As I recall, there were a few towns that reported legit hail in that band, too. Pretty special. 

Yes sir..I was in the 6”/hr rates for 3-4 hours. It was incredible. Ryan H. came  on with a special report, saying that the band over our areas was some of the heaviest snow you may EVER see in your life.  Literally Couldn’t see the house across the street..at all.  A complete wall of white!  Heaviest snow I’ve ever seen...the blizzard of ‘78 was a Very close second however.   

[Hoth]

How did November 1950 go down? Obviously centered over the Apps, but was that a SPV subsume scenario?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We have had anomalous snows in late October and early April over the last generation, one of these years the mid November period is gonna see a Major snow storm over the northeast or at least SNE (18”>) imo . 

My guess is the last 125 years of records are a relatively anomaly (lack of big storms in November) is it that hard in ORH (not Boston) to see a foot of snow in mid November with a cold high and BM cyclogenesis ???

[Cyclone-68]

I could have sworn Thanksgiving of ‘88 or ‘89 Boston’s southern suburbs got a good dumping. I remember my car sliding into a snow bank on the way to dinner?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I could have sworn Thanksgiving of ‘88 or ‘89 Boston’s southern suburbs got a good dumping. I remember my car sliding into a snow bank on the way to dinner?

89

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I could have sworn Thanksgiving of ‘88 or ‘89 Boston’s southern suburbs got a good dumping. I remember my car sliding into a snow bank on the way to dinner?

Definitely. My only memory of a white Thanksgiving was '89.

[WinterWolf]

Yes it’s 89.  Had a good storm. Rode my sled around the neighborhood that morning before T Day dinner.  A good 6 or 7 inches fell. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Nice storm, but bad timing for the Macy's Thanksgiving Parade. It destroyed the Superman and Woody The Woodpecker balloons. Last time they tried to fly the Superman balloon. Only 1997 was worse weather-wise for the parade.

The Winter after the insane cold wave in December 1989 was not the best.

[ORH_wxman]

Areas near PYM and just W and NW actually got a foot in the '89 storm. They were getting enhancement on NE wind. Really frigid airmass. 

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We have had anomalous snows in late October and early April over the last generation, one of these years the mid November period is gonna see a Major snow storm over the northeast or at least SNE (18”>) imo . 

My guess is the last 125 years of records are a relatively anomaly (lack of big storms in November) is it that hard in ORH (not Boston) to see a foot of snow in mid November with a cold high and BM cyclogenesis ???

The November 1898 storm dumped 27" even down in New London CT. How's that for anomalous? ORH also had around 2 feet. Frigid storm. Boston had a foot. NYC 6-8". 

[Sugarloaf1989]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Areas near PYM and just W and NW actually got a foot in the '89 storm. They were getting enhancement on NE wind. Really frigid airmass. 

The November 1898 storm dumped 27" even down in New London CT. How's that for anomalous? ORH also had around 2 feet. Frigid storm. Boston had a foot. NYC 6-8". 

The S.S Portland storm and a tremendous amount of coastal damage.

[weathafella]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Areas near PYM and just W and NW actually got a foot in the '89 storm. They were getting enhancement on NE wind. Really frigid airmass. 

The November 1898 storm dumped 27" even down in New London CT. How's that for anomalous? ORH also had around 2 feet. Frigid storm. Boston had a foot. NYC 6-8". 

Wasn’t there a storm around 1980 that hit metro west?

[MJO812]

Gfs looks good for next week

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs looks good for next week

Elaborate a tad Ant, if you will?