weathafella Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 Can we please lock in next Wednesday on the euro? Tyia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Man stuff next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 That is a pretty fun solution. Dropping that pv into philly and see what happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That is a pretty fun solution. Dropping that pv into philly and see what happens.... How realistic is that though...the Polar Vortex in Philadelphia?? In Early Novi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: How realistic is that though...the Polar Vortex in Philadelphia?? In Early Novi? Eagles and Polar Vortex combine to rout Pats??? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: How realistic is that though...the Polar Vortex in Philadelphia?? In Early Novi? More like a PV lobe....but it's pretty unlikely. But it's definitely gonna be really cold and there's a legit chance something forms on the eastern side of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 No BL issues up here on that one next week out in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: More like a PV lobe....but it's pretty unlikely. But it's definitely gonna be really cold and there's a legit chance something forms on the eastern side of the trough. Ya that’s what figured, pretty unlikely. But Ok..What you said makes sense. It’ll be Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Feb 13? Feb 13 delivered 33” here for me. Yep. Not sure exactly how much fell in Hamden (I was in Boston then--it was awesome there, too), but my father reported his yardstick disappeared with several inches to spare. They were stuck in the house for several days before earth movers came through and cleared the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: Can we please lock in next Wednesday on the euro? Tyia How long until this is congrats PF? 24 hr snow, obviously more in NNE later but this is the one to watch not the POS Kev latched onto Thursday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yep. Not sure exactly how much fell in Hamden (I was in Boston then--it was awesome there, too), but my father reported his yardstick disappeared with several inches to spare. They were stuck in the house for several days before earth movers came through and cleared the roads. Hamden actually had the most of any place in New England in that storm..according to the weather channel...40” was recorded there. Ya it was crazy here with that. Funny thing was that we were forecast to get less(15-20” instead of 24-36”)during the day Friday as the snow started...and we got the most..along with your dads area of Hamden getting the 40”! Band set up right through west central(west of the river) CT north to south, and down through Long Island. Incredible storm!! Paralyzing for almost a week!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: More like a PV lobe....but it's pretty unlikely. But it's definitely gonna be really cold and there's a legit chance something forms on the eastern side of the trough. That's a subsume scenario .. 1978 ... both storms in the Lakes and out here along the SNE coast were SPV fragments that were bumped S by modulation at high latitudes, while some form of weak interloper s/stream impulse timed well. "pretty unlikely" is overstating imho ... but, you are right that among the ways to get to upper tier systems, it's a bit of a delicate stream interaction so by definition is rarer. Again, I'm not opposed to something notable in that time frame. I'm also noting that heights draping Florida have fallen to 582 dm or less, prior to the subsume taking place over top. That tells me the meridional character of the flow may allow this to slow down .. preserving wave mechanics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 EPS reloading past d10. Could be a November to remember forever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 In fact, that storm leaves something on the field given the mid level vortex - geezus. I would submit the fact that the model doesn't really have the S/stream system to really collapse the N/stream into ...is why that low - albeit amazing - doesn't max. The mid level d(h) with that much DPVA should be something deeper at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 There is potential there but jmo, if something decent develops next week, a hugger or even cutter seems far more likely than a cold coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: There is potential there but jmo, if something decent develops next week, a hugger or even cutter seems far more likely than a cold coastal. Reasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: In fact, that storm leaves something on the field given the mid level vortex - geezus. I would submit the fact that the model doesn't really have the S/stream system to really collapse the N/stream into ...is why that low - albeit amazing - doesn't max. The mid level d(h) with that much DPVA should be something deeper at the surface. I also have to wonder how the lower level delta-T at this time of the year would be complicating things...if you get something that deep going over bath water, it will just want to go up like a mushroom cloud. Remember how the models struggled with the extremely anomalous PV lobe diving under New England on Feb 14-15, 2015? It was trying to arc the best dynamics well northeast of the actual intense PVA and upper level support but in the end we got that 6-8 hour nuke job over eastern MA/RI. On a smaller scale we also saw that happen on 12/9/05...that was a much smaller upper level feature but it was extremely intense. The vortmax was something like -50/s^2 and when it hit the early December bath water south of LI, it ignited way more than most guidance showed (though the old ETA model back then in its final winter got pretty close to nailing it). Regardless, any time you see such anomalous upper level features, it warrants close attention. Probably both skepticism and attention if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: There is potential there but jmo, if something decent develops next week, a hugger or even cutter seems far more likely than a cold coastal. Hmmm idk about that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: There is potential there but jmo, if something decent develops next week, a hugger or even cutter seems far more likely than a cold coastal. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, dmillz25 said: Hmmm idk about that one I would think a miss is more likely with the amount of cold air for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS reloading past d10. Could be a November to remember forever. Euro is showing a storm brewing at 240. November to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hamden actually had the most of any place in New England in that storm..according to the weather channel...40” was recorded there. Ya it was crazy here with that. Funny thing was that we were forecast to get less(15-20” instead of 24-36”)during the day Friday as the snow started...and we got the most..along with your dads area of Hamden getting the 40”! Band set up right through west central(west of the river) CT north to south, and down through Long Island. Incredible storm!! Paralyzing for almost a week!! Fantastic storm, even in south Western CT we received 22 inches. A far cry from 33 to 40 but 2nd favorite storm next to 96 with 27 in swct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 34 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yep. Not sure exactly how much fell in Hamden (I was in Boston then--it was awesome there, too), but my father reported his yardstick disappeared with several inches to spare. They were stuck in the house for several days before earth movers came through and cleared the roads. I remember the news saying they recorded 40" in Hamden. Not sure how accurate it was with the blowing a drifting. Not sure if people used the six hour snowfall increment method or not in that, that makes a difference, but a very potent band was over them for several hours which can be seen on past radars imagery. Very intense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS reloading past d10. Could be a November to remember forever. This reminds me of what Tip and I were musing a couple days back when we were discussing how models tend to break down intense EPO blocks (or really any arctic blocking) too quickly in the extended range. On this run, that block is just hanging out north of the Bering redirecting the airmasses down the east side of the North American cordillera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Reasons? I'd more like to hear reasoning for a decent or even major winter storm. Projectsd teleconnections don't get me too enthused, nor does climo, or seasonably mild ssts. I'll err on the side of skepticism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: I'd more like to hear reasoning for a decent or even major winter storm. Projectsd teleconnections don't get me too enthused, nor does climo, or seasonably mild ssts. I'll err on the side of skepticism Always bias against this early but cutter reason is what I’m asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: I'd more like to hear reasoning for a decent or even major winter storm. Projectsd teleconnections don't get me too enthused, nor does climo, or seasonably mild ssts. I'll err on the side of skepticism I'd go for suppression and sheared mess to the southeast over cutter. The cold air dump from the -epo block and fast flow and mean trough position are decidely against a great lakes track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hamden actually had the most of any place in New England in that storm..according to the weather channel...40” was recorded there. Ya it was crazy here with that. Funny thing was that we were forecast to get less(15-20” instead of 24-36”)during the day Friday as the snow started...and we got the most..along with your dads area of Hamden getting the 40”! Band set up right through west central(west of the river) CT north to south, and down through Long Island. Incredible storm!! Paralyzing for almost a week!! Picture from Hamden during that storm. There are 2 cars buried in there with the wipers just sticking up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: I'd go for suppression and sheared mess to the southeast over cutter. The cold air dump from the -epo block and fast flow and mean trough position are decidely against a great lakes track. I agree with that, the more likely solution is a sheared mess. If we hypothesized a real amped setup, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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