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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, the bigger signal still looms for mid month ... 

Hard to say if that's this Euro solution as an early albeit gross detection of that potential. 

Yeah and even behind it, there's another shot...I almost wanted to see the Euro run to 264-288 hours on this run, just to see what happened to all this stuff dropping down from the plains at D10 even though it's going to look totally different next run....ha

 

 

Nov4_12zEuro240.png

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And yeah....Euro still hitting 11/12-13 pretty hard. Obviously way out there in clown range, but there's been some multi-model support for something lurking in that time frame.

being on the shore I'm pretty meh on the 11/8-9 event...don't expect more than some mangled flakes on the tail end if anything. But next week looks interesting. Sub 30 snow on the coast in mid-November? Sign me up! Need to get it within 120 hrs first though.

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and even behind it, there's another shot...I almost wanted to see the Euro run to 264-288 hours on this run, just to see what happened to all this stuff dropping down from the plains at D10 even though it's going to look totally different next run....ha

 

 

Nov4_12zEuro240.png

Sometimes ... the flow relaxes a bit with fresh cold still in place, and then the S/Ws embedded ( not too dissimilar to this chart you provided actually ..) can go on to generate slower moving deeper events because less of their own mechanics are getting absorbed by compression/velocity...yadda yadda.  I was dancing around with the same idea on the 00z run, too.. That one sort of has 'the look' of one lead deep zipper, then a follow-up slower evolving deal.   

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2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Farmington was were we saw the start of the destruction from the ice storm. It was much worse further South in Jay, Livermore and Turner. Many closed roads and detour's.

Sugarloaf and Kingfield areas were alot more IP than freezing rain. Sugarloaf remains the largest amount of IP I've ever seen, 6".

I might also add this was the coldest freezing rain I've seen. Temperatures at our condo were between 17-25F according to the thermometer at our condo.

Co-workers from the Farmington area reported outages of generally 24 hours or less, in some cases much less.  Our (then) home in Gardiner was on a cul-de-sac 400'  from Brunswick Ave. (aka Rt 201, aka main trunk line for power.)  We lost power for about 90 hours,  but if anything had broken - beyond our telephone line - on our little road we'd have been 2 weeks plus.  (As we were with the phone, and damage to our service entry cables caused the phone tech to mount a junction box on a front yard pine so for 4-5 weeks we had a "tree phone.")

The temp gradient from that system was remarkable:
NYC area - 50s/60s RA
SNE - 40s RA
S.Maine - Low 30s, RA/ZR, light damage (they got smoked later that month, though not nearly as bad.)
C.Maine and E.Maine inland of Rt 1 - Upper 20s to 30, 1.5-2" ice (near 3" on Greenwood Hill in Hebron, NW of LEW) and massive tree and infrastructure damage.
Foothills/mountains - Low 20s with more IP than ZR, 2-6" IP accum, moderate to occasionally severe damage.
Aroostook - Singles and teens, 5 days of continuous gritty SN, 20-27" total.

Deepest IP I've seen was in mid-Dec 1983 in the woods NW from Allagash.  Serious ice at our Fort Kent home with lots of IP, made a 3" crust with 1.9" LE, 1/2" clear ice with 1.25" ZR-annealed IP above and below, would carry a moose.  To our west and above 1,000' elev there was 6-10" of IP, as tough to plow as a 3-ft snowfall.

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16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Co-workers from the Farmington area reported outages of generally 24 hours or less, in some cases much less.  Our (then) home in Gardiner was on a cul-de-sac 400'  from Brunswick Ave. (aka Rt 201, aka main trunk line for power.)  We lost power for about 90 hours,  but if anything had broken - beyond our telephone line - on our little road we'd have been 2 weeks plus.  (As we were with the phone, and damage to our service entry cables caused the phone tech to mount a junction box on a front yard pine so for 4-5 weeks we had a "tree phone.")

The temp gradient from that system was remarkable:
NYC area - 50s/60s RA
SNE - 40s RA
S.Maine - Low 30s, RA/ZR, light damage (they got smoked later that month, though not nearly as bad.)
C.Maine and E.Maine inland of Rt 1 - Upper 20s to 30, 1.5-2" ice (near 3" on Greenwood Hill in Hebron, NW of LEW) and massive tree and infrastructure damage.
Foothills/mountains - Low 20s with more IP than ZR, 2-6" IP accum, moderate to occasionally severe damage.
Aroostook - Singles and teens, 5 days of continuous gritty SN, 20-27" total.

Deepest IP I've seen was in mid-Dec 1983 in the woods NW from Allagash.  Serious ice at our Fort Kent home with lots of IP, made a 3" crust with 1.9" LE, 1/2" clear ice with 1.25" ZR-annealed IP above and below, would carry a moose.  To our west and above 1,000' elev there was 6-10" of IP, as tough to plow as a 3-ft snowfall.

We only lost cable TV service at Sugarloaf. I went snowmobiling to Bigelow Lodge and the rental lady gave me her GSM phone in case I got stuck. Cell service was non existent up there due to tower collapse further South. I remember lots of low hanging branches and almost no room to turn around at the lodge. We couldn't go home due to a state of emergency and a ban on non essential travel.

At Sugarloaf it was sleet from West Mountain on down, with boot deep sleet skiing on Windrow and Glancer It was like skiing in sand. Higher up it was rain and above freezing.

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50 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

We only lost cable TV service at Sugarloaf. I went snowmobiling to Bigelow Lodge and the rental lady gave me her GSM phone in case I got stuck. Cell service was non existent up there due to tower collapse further South. I remember lots of low hanging branches and almost no room to turn around at the lodge. We couldn't go home due to a state of emergency and a ban on non essential travel.

At Sugarloaf it was sleet from West Mountain on down, with boot deep sleet skiing on Windrow and Glancer It was like skiing in sand. Higher up it was rain and above freezing.

Sounds like the MWN/valley inversion sandwich - mostly RA in Gorham, record January warmth (45, topped by 48 in 2013) on the Rockpile, and forest destruction at 1500-2500'.

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18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Sounds like the MWN/valley inversion sandwich - mostly RA in Gorham, record January warmth (45, topped by 48 in 2013) on the Rockpile, and forest destruction at 1500-2500'.

Ski patrol shack thermometer at the top of Spillway was reading 43F. Also windy at the Summit from a Southerly direction.

At one point it was 43F at the Top of Spillway and 17F at the base.

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10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This absolutely proves. Seasons in seasons. Morch is and should be spring. Winter sets in , in November (like this year)and is over in Morch . The public understands 

https://imgur.com/a/iJRKHaV

How does it prove it?   Your normal high for today is 50+.  Normal snow going back to like forever is about 1/4 of March.  Poor attempt my friend.

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17 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Farmington was were we saw the start of the destruction from the ice storm. It was much worse further South in Jay, Livermore and Turner. Many closed roads and detour's.

Sugarloaf and Kingfield areas were alot more IP than freezing rain. Sugarloaf remains the largest amount of IP I've ever seen, 6".

I might also add this was the coldest freezing rain I've seen. Temperatures at our condo were between 17-25F according to the thermometer at our condo.

 

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11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Weatherbell just changed it's policy so I can now post Euro info.  Some serious cold next week.  Here is 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS temperatures for 7am next Tuesday

gfs.jpg

Untitled.jpg

Man what a gradient between N/C NE and SNE. 

Man-winter vs. Meh-winter.  Let's hope that's not the snow gradient we see this year.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

On November 5th. Mark it down. First melt of the season. 

If he sees flakes on Friday morning, he'll be giddy as a school boy. But man, look at the next couple of weeks. How can anyone complain in November. I'll be careful with my words here, but it seems like a much higher than norrmal chance of areas getting their first measurable before Thanksgiving. 

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