ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, the bigger signal still looms for mid month ... Hard to say if that's this Euro solution as an early albeit gross detection of that potential. Yeah and even behind it, there's another shot...I almost wanted to see the Euro run to 264-288 hours on this run, just to see what happened to all this stuff dropping down from the plains at D10 even though it's going to look totally different next run....ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And yeah....Euro still hitting 11/12-13 pretty hard. Obviously way out there in clown range, but there's been some multi-model support for something lurking in that time frame. being on the shore I'm pretty meh on the 11/8-9 event...don't expect more than some mangled flakes on the tail end if anything. But next week looks interesting. Sub 30 snow on the coast in mid-November? Sign me up! Need to get it within 120 hrs first though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and even behind it, there's another shot...I almost wanted to see the Euro run to 264-288 hours on this run, just to see what happened to all this stuff dropping down from the plains at D10 even though it's going to look totally different next run....ha Sometimes ... the flow relaxes a bit with fresh cold still in place, and then the S/Ws embedded ( not too dissimilar to this chart you provided actually ..) can go on to generate slower moving deeper events because less of their own mechanics are getting absorbed by compression/velocity...yadda yadda. I was dancing around with the same idea on the 00z run, too.. That one sort of has 'the look' of one lead deep zipper, then a follow-up slower evolving deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Farmington was were we saw the start of the destruction from the ice storm. It was much worse further South in Jay, Livermore and Turner. Many closed roads and detour's. Sugarloaf and Kingfield areas were alot more IP than freezing rain. Sugarloaf remains the largest amount of IP I've ever seen, 6". I might also add this was the coldest freezing rain I've seen. Temperatures at our condo were between 17-25F according to the thermometer at our condo. Co-workers from the Farmington area reported outages of generally 24 hours or less, in some cases much less. Our (then) home in Gardiner was on a cul-de-sac 400' from Brunswick Ave. (aka Rt 201, aka main trunk line for power.) We lost power for about 90 hours, but if anything had broken - beyond our telephone line - on our little road we'd have been 2 weeks plus. (As we were with the phone, and damage to our service entry cables caused the phone tech to mount a junction box on a front yard pine so for 4-5 weeks we had a "tree phone.") The temp gradient from that system was remarkable: NYC area - 50s/60s RA SNE - 40s RA S.Maine - Low 30s, RA/ZR, light damage (they got smoked later that month, though not nearly as bad.) C.Maine and E.Maine inland of Rt 1 - Upper 20s to 30, 1.5-2" ice (near 3" on Greenwood Hill in Hebron, NW of LEW) and massive tree and infrastructure damage. Foothills/mountains - Low 20s with more IP than ZR, 2-6" IP accum, moderate to occasionally severe damage. Aroostook - Singles and teens, 5 days of continuous gritty SN, 20-27" total. Deepest IP I've seen was in mid-Dec 1983 in the woods NW from Allagash. Serious ice at our Fort Kent home with lots of IP, made a 3" crust with 1.9" LE, 1/2" clear ice with 1.25" ZR-annealed IP above and below, would carry a moose. To our west and above 1,000' elev there was 6-10" of IP, as tough to plow as a 3-ft snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 16 minutes ago, tamarack said: Co-workers from the Farmington area reported outages of generally 24 hours or less, in some cases much less. Our (then) home in Gardiner was on a cul-de-sac 400' from Brunswick Ave. (aka Rt 201, aka main trunk line for power.) We lost power for about 90 hours, but if anything had broken - beyond our telephone line - on our little road we'd have been 2 weeks plus. (As we were with the phone, and damage to our service entry cables caused the phone tech to mount a junction box on a front yard pine so for 4-5 weeks we had a "tree phone.") The temp gradient from that system was remarkable: NYC area - 50s/60s RA SNE - 40s RA S.Maine - Low 30s, RA/ZR, light damage (they got smoked later that month, though not nearly as bad.) C.Maine and E.Maine inland of Rt 1 - Upper 20s to 30, 1.5-2" ice (near 3" on Greenwood Hill in Hebron, NW of LEW) and massive tree and infrastructure damage. Foothills/mountains - Low 20s with more IP than ZR, 2-6" IP accum, moderate to occasionally severe damage. Aroostook - Singles and teens, 5 days of continuous gritty SN, 20-27" total. Deepest IP I've seen was in mid-Dec 1983 in the woods NW from Allagash. Serious ice at our Fort Kent home with lots of IP, made a 3" crust with 1.9" LE, 1/2" clear ice with 1.25" ZR-annealed IP above and below, would carry a moose. To our west and above 1,000' elev there was 6-10" of IP, as tough to plow as a 3-ft snowfall. We only lost cable TV service at Sugarloaf. I went snowmobiling to Bigelow Lodge and the rental lady gave me her GSM phone in case I got stuck. Cell service was non existent up there due to tower collapse further South. I remember lots of low hanging branches and almost no room to turn around at the lodge. We couldn't go home due to a state of emergency and a ban on non essential travel. At Sugarloaf it was sleet from West Mountain on down, with boot deep sleet skiing on Windrow and Glancer It was like skiing in sand. Higher up it was rain and above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 50 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: We only lost cable TV service at Sugarloaf. I went snowmobiling to Bigelow Lodge and the rental lady gave me her GSM phone in case I got stuck. Cell service was non existent up there due to tower collapse further South. I remember lots of low hanging branches and almost no room to turn around at the lodge. We couldn't go home due to a state of emergency and a ban on non essential travel. At Sugarloaf it was sleet from West Mountain on down, with boot deep sleet skiing on Windrow and Glancer It was like skiing in sand. Higher up it was rain and above freezing. Sounds like the MWN/valley inversion sandwich - mostly RA in Gorham, record January warmth (45, topped by 48 in 2013) on the Rockpile, and forest destruction at 1500-2500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, tamarack said: Sounds like the MWN/valley inversion sandwich - mostly RA in Gorham, record January warmth (45, topped by 48 in 2013) on the Rockpile, and forest destruction at 1500-2500'. Ski patrol shack thermometer at the top of Spillway was reading 43F. Also windy at the Summit from a Southerly direction. At one point it was 43F at the Top of Spillway and 17F at the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Weatherbell just changed it's policy so I can now post Euro info. Some serious cold next week. Here is 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS temperatures for 7am next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 This absolutely proves. Seasons in seasons. Morch is and should be spring. Winter sets in , in November (like this year)and is over in Morch . The public understands https://imgur.com/a/iJRKHaV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This absolutely proves. Seasons in seasons. Morch is and should be spring. Winter sets in , in November (like this year)and is over in Morch . The public understands https://imgur.com/a/iJRKHaV Where is this fantasy land climate located? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This absolutely proves. Seasons in seasons. Morch is and should be spring. Winter sets in , in November (like this year)and is over in Morch . The public understands https://imgur.com/a/iJRKHaV November should be a winter month, especially NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Weatherbell just changed it's policy so I can now post Euro info. Some serious cold next week. Here is 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS temperatures for 7am next Tuesday We single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Cranky is gonna need to abandon his mild and bland November call and not blame “weather Twitter” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: November should be a winter month, especially NNE AOA 1k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What a disaster that nov 8th thread is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Man a few threats from now until day 15 or so. Looks fairly active even if none of them are large threats. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 There are no more threats. Stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 Anytime we see signs of a pattern collapse to above normal it gets squashed. I like the early signs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There are no more threats. Stop What a melt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This absolutely proves. Seasons in seasons. Morch is and should be spring. Winter sets in , in November (like this year)and is over in Morch . The public understands https://imgur.com/a/iJRKHaV How does it prove it? Your normal high for today is 50+. Normal snow going back to like forever is about 1/4 of March. Poor attempt my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There are no more threats. Stop What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What are you talking about? We lost Kevin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 17 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Farmington was were we saw the start of the destruction from the ice storm. It was much worse further South in Jay, Livermore and Turner. Many closed roads and detour's. Sugarloaf and Kingfield areas were alot more IP than freezing rain. Sugarloaf remains the largest amount of IP I've ever seen, 6". I might also add this was the coldest freezing rain I've seen. Temperatures at our condo were between 17-25F according to the thermometer at our condo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a melt On November 5th. Mark it down. First melt of the season. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Weatherbell just changed it's policy so I can now post Euro info. Some serious cold next week. Here is 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS temperatures for 7am next Tuesday Man what a gradient between N/C NE and SNE. Man-winter vs. Meh-winter. Let's hope that's not the snow gradient we see this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Man what a gradient between N/C NE and SNE. Man-winter vs. Meh-winter. Let's hope that's not the snow gradient we see this year. Definitely a partly cloudy viewpoint vs partly sunny..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: On November 5th. Mark it down. First melt of the season. If he sees flakes on Friday morning, he'll be giddy as a school boy. But man, look at the next couple of weeks. How can anyone complain in November. I'll be careful with my words here, but it seems like a much higher than norrmal chance of areas getting their first measurable before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Definitely a partly cloudy viewpoint vs partly sunny..... Not really, Jerry. 23 in ORH vs. 4 in SVT? I'd put that at least in the mostly sunny vs. mostly cloudy realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a melt Lol... on November 5th. That has to be a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lol... on November 5th. That has to be a record. Crying while eating Halloween candy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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