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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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EPS are pretty cold 11/7 onward.  Coldest look yet. Maybe first flakes watch? Usually our first flakes are some windex or psuedo-windex crap from a deep upper trough. 

But maybe we can sneak something bigger in like 2012 or last year. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

It doesnt have a bad pattern for our area.  A lot of areas are going to see snow in November.  Hopefully it's not a bad sign.

Has not been a great sign here, but sss.  We've had November events greater than 3" in 6 of 21 snow seasons, 02, 05, 09, 11, 14, 18.  Those 6 included 2 AN, 3 BN, one ratter (05-06) with the 6-year average at 87% of that for all 21 while the other 15 average 105%.  (79" vs. 96")    Further limiting that small sample to events of 6"+ drops 05 and 09 and leaves the other 4 at 99% of the overall.  Looks like a pretty weak indicator at best.

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Hopefully the finest line ever

Thursday night into Friday...

Deepening mid level low lifts NE across the Gt Lakes and into
Canada. Main surface low will be tracking well to the north with
attending cold sweeping across SNE late Thu night into early Fri.
Robust low level jet increasing and peaking around 70+ kts as it
crosses NE New Eng late Thu night/early Fri. Wind and PWAT anomalies
4-5SD above normal which is a strong signal for a period of heavy
rainfall and strong wind gusts. Some elevated instability exists so
potential for a fine line of convection along the front as it sweeps
through. Further details will become available on Wed as event is
captured within the time range of the hi-res CAMs. Temps will be
quite mild Thu night ahead of the front with readings well into the
60s and may top out around 70 in eastern New Eng. This will help to
enhance low level mixing with potential for strong to damaging wind
gusts in eastern New Eng which would be enhanced if any convective
fine line develops. Wind headlines may be needed.
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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS are pretty cold 11/7 onward.  Coldest look yet. Maybe first flakes watch? Usually our first flakes are some windex or psuedo-windex crap from a deep upper trough. 

But maybe we can sneak something bigger in like 2012 or last year. 

The ol' instability popcorn cells type snow showers as the ULL moves overhead, ha.

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6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I was shocked to see HWW's already up off the lakes in NY, but I just looked at some of the bufkit soundings for ROC, BUF, and SYR and HOLY CRAP. Could see gusts 60-80 mph per bufkit soundings lol...sustained 25-40

Could be pretty bad. Lake levels on Erie are very high so lakeshore flooding might be severe. 

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6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Could be pretty bad. Lake levels on Erie are very high so lakeshore flooding might be severe. 

Yeah this could be pretty significant right off the lakes. I was shocked to see soundings so impressive right now. Could see tropical storm force sustained and hurricane force gusts. 
good point about the lake flooding potential 

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