OceanStWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 I would probably exercise a little caution much outside my little study area, but looking at the 01.00z OKX sounding it would forecast a 35 knot gust, when HWV peaked at 33 knots in the 4 hour window around the launch time. If you wanted to look at model data instead, around 05z the LLJ increased to 81 knots at 925, and the regression spit out 46 knots. HWV peak wind was 46 knots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 About to head north back home, looks like I missed the first accumulating snow in Stowe. In classic fashion the first accum was a heavy squall that looked on video like SN/+SN briefly...and then the sun came back out. The ol’ couple tenths for a first snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 It's snowing at Killington also right now per the webcams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: About to head north back home, looks like I missed the first accumulating snow in Stowe. In classic fashion the first accum was a heavy squall that looked on video like SN/+SN briefly...and then the sun came back out. The ol’ couple tenths for a first snow. Congrats 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Euro going for another threat on 11/12. As mentioned earlier, prob multiple shortwaves to watch in the pattern over the next 10-12 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Flurrying here all of a sudden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Nice cold start to the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro going for another threat on 11/12. As mentioned earlier, prob multiple shortwaves to watch in the pattern over the next 10-12 days. November of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: About to head north back home, looks like I missed the first accumulating snow in Stowe. In classic fashion the first accum was a heavy squall that looked on video like SN/+SN briefly...and then the sun came back out. The ol’ couple tenths for a first snow. The snow made it all the way down to the (Champlain) valley floor. Here is a video of the squall as it moved through while I was hiking on Mount Philo (972ft.) earlier today. The squall lasted about 10 minutes and was enough to whiten the ground. 22502A48-4345-4333-852F-6E0B33EEBDB0.MOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 There's a much louder signal nearing the 15th of the month coming out of the American cluster for some form of larger scale index-related instability/correction event across the mid latitude of the continent... The PNA is heading into a mode reversal, while the on-going -EPO resists change ( and is in fact is anchor through the WPO! ), is an implication for a highly sloped western Canadia flow nearing the mid month time frame - This is the ensemble derived teleconnectors. The operational guidance may or may not reflect that at this time or a given run. Be that as it may this is a multi agency, multiple run signal. CDC is in fact a screaming winter signal for North America and has been been since mid last week landing on the ides of the month; this last evenings was the most spectacular, with/when wpo-epo arc are in sync signals a whopper AB phase of the Pac circulation, which is a very high correlation to/for deep layer N conveyor and cold loading into N. America. The CPC rendition of the PNA is not quite as robust ...however, shows a tightly clustered mean rising from -2 SD to neutral - certainly qualifies a mode change in the positive direction. I'd suggest be looking out for something a bit more than a needle threader ... I even see signs that the local HC is "deflated" a bit then with ambient heights receded by 4 to 6 dm from the western Gulf to Bermuda after the 10th in some ensemble... that's a table set in my estimating for back off the larger toward smaller scale mechanical interference by way of reducing some of the velocity surplus. Time will tell on that... It's an exciting November folks. We haven't seen one of these in a while... No guarantee that we will get our cinema, no, but... we have 'good problems' as storm enthusiasts for the time being. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's a much louder signal nearing the 15th of the month coming out of the American cluster for some form of larger scale index-related instability/correction event across the mid latitude of the continent... The PNA is heading into a mode reversal, while the on-going -EPO resists change ( and is in fact is anchor through the WPO! ), is an implication for a highly sloped western Canadia flow nearing the mid month time frame - This is the ensemble derived teleconnectors. The operational guidance may or may not reflect that at this time or a given run. Be that as it may this is a multi agency, multiple run signal. CDC is in fact a screaming winter signal for North America and has been been since mid last week landing on the ides of the month; this last evenings was the most spectacular, with/when wpo-epo arc are in sync signals a whopper AB phase of the Pac circulation, which is a very high correlation to/for deep layer N conveyor and cold loading into N. America. The CPC rendition of the PNA is not quite as robust ...however, shows a tightly cluster mean rising from -2 SD to neutral - certainly qualifies a mode change in the positive direction. I'd suggest be looking out for something a bit more than a needle threader ... I even see signs that the local HC is "deflated" a bit then with ambient height recede by 4 to 6 dm from the western Gulf to Bermuda after then 10th in some ensemble... that's a table set in my estimating for back off the larger toward smaller scale mechanical interference by way of reducing some of the velocity surplus. Time will tell on that... It's an exciting November folks. We haven't seen one of these in a while... No guarantee that we will get our cinema, no, but... we have 'good problems' as storm enthusiasts for the time being. Have there been any major icing events in Nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 36 minutes ago, Modfan said: Have there been any major icing events in Nov? One of SNE's worst icing events on record was November 26-28, 1921. Right to the coast too...over an inch of ice in a huge area with Pretty decent swaths over 2 inches thick. It was a cold event that started as snow and had some sleet mixed in during the latter part of the ice storm. Temps mostly in the 20s unlike the December 2008 ice storm which was marginal temps of 30-31F. November 17, 2002 had a bad one near and just south of the pike. Esp N CT. I remember ORH having decent ice but sleet cut it down a bit compared to further south where some spots got half an inch. There's been some lighter ones too...Thanksgiving 1985 actually knocked power out to some towns in ORH county. So they do happen even if rarer than winter months. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Photo Date is Dec 1921 but it was the dates Will posted 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro going for another threat on 11/12. As mentioned earlier, prob multiple shortwaves to watch in the pattern over the next 10-12 days. Snow on my Birthday. Last time was in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Photo Date is Dec 1921 but it was the dates Will posted Farmington, ME looked like that in 1998. 3-5" of ice, three days of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Farmington, ME looked like that in 1998. 3-5" of ice, three days of freezing rain. This area in Dec 2008 looked like that although it was only 1-1.5” of ice. I never want to experience that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This area in Dec 2008 looked like that although it was only 1-1.5” of ice. I never want to experience that again Folks that want this don't understand the destruction and it takes forest's many years to recover. Damage to infastructure is $$$$$ It was close in Coventry in 2008, it was a 32.5F cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Folks that want this don't understand the destruction and it takes forest's many years to recover. Damage to infastructure is $$$$$ It was close in Coventry in 2008, it was a 32.5F cold rain Yeah, same in Greenfield. We became the supply zone for all the unfortunates in the hill towns who were without power for days. Soeaking if which, my friends in SW VT (Dover and Wilmington) still don’t have power from the Halloween winds and rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Euro nuke day 8/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Second weenie run in a row. Some ensemble support for that too, but that’s is clown range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 White T-Giving’s for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Euro nuke day 8/9 That is truly a benchmark hit. Showing a beast with a 985 at that. Only problem is, it's still a week+ out and will most likely end up with a completely different solution. I'd say tracking season is now in full swing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 25.7. Multiple hard freezes now and everything is looking brown, bare, and Novemberesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Still yet to go below 32. I think longest since I moved here. We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 14 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: 25.7. Multiple hard freezes now and everything is looking brown, bare, and Novemberesque. We winter . Seasons in seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 14 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: 25.7. Multiple hard freezes now and everything is looking brown, bare, and Novemberesque. 27.7, 27.6, and 26.4 this morning three days in a row here as well...Most of the leaves are gone now too so it definitely has that winter look and feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We winter . Seasons in seasons Yeah, everything is dead so might as well bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Only sub 32 once so far. 33f atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 10 days of EC fun. 30* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 28/27 chilly morning Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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