ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 That stinger on the HRRR is epic. It's not a surprise it would flip the interior to snow on that. I just don't trust that there will actually be a stinger that intense. It's punching big VVs up to like 400mb in that thing....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Models have been bad lately lol. Can’t trust anything. Yeah, but bad bust on my part. Mid levels will go wild, but it’s more compact and moving East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 How we looking late month into Dec? Still good first 10 days ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Jeez the monads could get quite a punch later. Maybe adjacent ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How we looking late month into Dec? Still good first 10 days ? Yeah I got no issues with the first half of December as of now...just as long as people aren't expecting 2003 or 2007 to walk through that door....keep expectations in perspective, but I do think we'll have a couple good chances in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Jeez hrrr is also kind of showing kevin getting paste for a couple of hours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Jeez hrrr is also kind of showing kevin getting paste for a couple of hours too. It has 4-6” here .. tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Thanks @Damage In Tolland lol. So these two trees were leaning after the October storm. Saturated ground one good gust and boom. One on the old non used shed, one on the fence. Good thing TB is here for Sunday Funday Football. He cut up all the branches on the fence and released the pressure. Diseased Trees yea fuk um I hate um 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Pretty much as cold as it gets without any frozen precip; hoping I can manage some pingers or Mangled flakes later here in Killingly/Putnam area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It has 4-6” here .. tossed Ya I agree. With This pathetic performance by modeling with this...just believe it when you see it!! But I hope you get a flip there. As I’ve been saying for a while(along with a few other guys)...Euro ain’t even close to what she used to be!! You pros can believe what you want...but this pretty much proves my point...Euro OP is pretty much junk..along with the rest of the junk models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya I agree. With This pathetic performance by modeling with this...just believe it when you see it!! But I hope you get a flip there. As I’ve been saying for a while(along with a few other guys)...Euro ain’t even close to what she used to be!! You pros can believe what you want...but this pretty much proves my point...Euro OP is pretty much junk..along with the rest of the junk models. Those things happen, but it’s the best model we have and has gotten slowly better with time. The reason why we notice all these little nuances is because the other guidance was always so bad. Now the gfs (although perhaps has taken a step back) and other guidance have improved more significantly. So therefore when the euro moves around, you’ll notice it more because the other guidance is not as terrible and used to mask any small shifts like we have today. The system is also rather dynamic and getting kicked East so these moves can happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Those things happen, but it’s the best model we have and has gotten slowly better with time. The reason why we notice all these little nuances is because the other guidance was always so bad. Now the gfs (although perhaps has taken a step back) and other guidance have improved more significantly. So therefore when the euro moves around, you’ll notice it more because the other guidance is not as terrible and used to mask any small shifts like we have today. The system is also rather dynamic and getting kicked East so these moves can happen. Ya...I can see your point Scott. But still..and it’s just an opinion obviously, the old version of the Euro very rarely did this. It seems more and more it’s doing these things to me. But whatever??? And yes, it’s still the best piece of guidance no doubt, It just doesn’t seem/appear to be on its game like it used to be before it’s supposed “upgrade” a couple/few years black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Lol, look at this sounding from the new HRR for ORH....that is how you dynamically flip....that's obscene omega in the snow growth region. That what it will take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya I agree. With This pathetic performance by modeling with this...just believe it when you see it!! But I hope you get a flip there. As I’ve been saying for a while(along with a few other guys)...Euro ain’t even close to what she used to be!! You pros can believe what you want...but this pretty much proves my point...Euro OP is pretty much junk..along with the rest of the junk models. Eh...we say this with like half of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya...I can see your point Scott. But still..and it’s just an opinion obviously, the old version of the Euro very rarely did this. It seems more and more it’s doing these things to me. But whatever??? And yes, it’s still the best piece of guidance no doubt, It just doesn’t seem/appear to be on its game like it used to be before it’s supposed “upgrade” a couple/few years black. I think it’s just more perception. We expect skill and are used to it. When things like this happen I feel like it gets more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 3 hours ago, dryslot said: 00z/23? Rookie mistake Should have checked weathermodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 That cutter that the models had for the system around Thanksgiving has been sneaky ticking further SE with ea run on the Euro anyways and tries getting the surface low to go underneath Maine, Going to have to keep an eye on it as its a big snowmaker right now for the whites into Central Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol, look at this sounding from the new HRR for ORH....that is how you dynamically flip....that's obscene omega in the snow growth region. That what it will take. That’s fairly unstable looking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol, look at this sounding from the new HRR for ORH....that is how you dynamically flip....that's obscene omega in the snow growth region. That what it will take. Feb flipped to snow in Lancaster PA, huge model floppies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 There will be reports of TSSN whomever flips 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s fairly unstable looking too. Thats definitely a MAUL. Would likely be thunder in that type of sounding. Hard to actually trust the HRRR though. That's almost 12/9/05 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There will be reports of TSSN whomever flips Unstable as all hell. I will be up near Woodstock for your game. Will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Lots of max column 1C profiles around in the interior so it wouldn't take much to do some ptype flipping with the dynamics going bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There will be reports of TSSN whomever flips Jerry Jones sucked into a snownado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Lots of max column 1C profiles around in the interior so it wouldn't take much to do some ptype flipping with the dynamics going bonkers. Starting to think HRRR is onto something. Damn interesting , definitely not Scooter boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Unstable as all hell. I will be up near Woodstock for your game. Will be interesting Let’s do this. Everything .. Wx and game . LFG!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 Let’s get a flip in foxboro. Will on camera doing snow angels in the seats... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 The wet and raw conditions favor the Pats. Still like Dal +6.5 but line has dropped to 4 with heavy money pouring on the Pats. Smells fishy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The wet and raw conditions favor the Pats. Still like Dal +6.5 but line has dropped to 4 with heavy money pouring on the Pats. Smells fishy. Dal should run it down the Pats' throat. Of course Garrett will try to throw it 30+ times even in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Dal should run it down the Pats' throat. Of course Garrett will try to throw it 30+ times even in the rain. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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