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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone think hills can flip?

It could end as some snow. Tough call but it probably wouldn't be enough to accumulate unless it's really pounding. Models have a hell of a stinger though so worth keeping an eye on....esp up toward hubbdave and Chris. 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like PF getting the messenger tug. Crazy when 24 hours ago they looked sweet. I certainly thought they would do well. 

Craziest part is 36-48 hours ago it looked like this...only for two runs did every model go crazy inland.  Like they ate some bad information at initialization.

See that’s why we stay conservative most of the time.  The east tick is always there. 

I had 1-3” up here so should be ok for an inch.

The bigger bust even might be the northern Whites by Diane/Alex into the western Maine mtns...they were all like 12-18” on the models for longer than we were in it.  6z EURO had like under 1/2” of QPF in those areas.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Craziest part is 36-48 hours ago it looked like this...only for two runs did every model go crazy inland.  Like they ate some bad information at initialization.

See that’s why we stay conservative most of the time.  The east tick is always there. 

I had 1-3” up here so should be ok for an inch.

The bigger bust even might be the northern Whites by Diane/Alex into the western Maine mtns...they were all like 12-18” on the models for longer than we were in it.  6z EURO had like under 1/2” of QPF in those areas.

36 hours from the event though...at least I didn’t expect that much of a shift even if you weren’t jacking. I thought you were easily good for a 6 spot. 

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Even the most reliable. It’s going to be a very emotional winter.

Yeah the Euro up here in like 24 hours, went from 0.15” QPF jacked up to a max of 1.15” at MVL and then is now back to 0.22”.  

Thats a massive swing within 36 hours of an event.  

Just be happy this wasn’t done to SNE...a storm that looked like a whiff at 48 hours out, then a 8-12” bomb at 30 hours out, back to 1-3” by 12-18 hours out.  

And not just one model but all of them.  Rollarcoaster ride.  Can’t talk definitively until 12 hour lead time.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the Euro up here in like 24 hours, went from 0.15” QPF jacked up to a max of 1.15” at MVL and then is now back to 0.22”.  

Thats a massive swing within 36 hours of an event.  

Just be happy this wasn’t done to SNE...a storm that looked like a whiff at 48 hours out, then a 8-12” bomb at 30 hours out, back to 1-3” by 12-18 hours out.  

And not just one model but all of them.  Rollarcoaster ride.  Can’t talk definitively until 12 hour lead time.

Reminds me of the 3/2 storm last year. We got duped by about two model cycles 36-48 hours out...including the euro...that was slamming us with 8-15" of snow only to slide back east and turned into a 2-4" event. 

We did get the big 3/4 event a couple days later to take the sting out a bit but that was still a rough model headfake. 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the Euro up here in like 24 hours, went from 0.15” QPF jacked up to a max of 1.15” at MVL and then is now back to 0.22”.  

Thats a massive swing within 36 hours of an event.  

Just be happy this wasn’t done to SNE...a storm that looked like a whiff at 48 hours out, then a 8-12” bomb at 30 hours out, back to 1-3” by 12-18 hours out.  

And not just one model but all of them.  Rollarcoaster ride.  Can’t talk definitively until 12 hour lead time.

When winter gets here, Its going to be a long one in the model world, Can't trust any of them even in the mid to short term, Pretty much have to nowcast.

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Just now, weathafella said:

People at the game later (Will included) are going to be getting drenched!

Yeah that's gonna be fun...lol. Hey, we got the tix for face value though so can't complain too much. I feel bad for those who might have scalped then for 800 bucks. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's gonna be fun...lol. Hey, we got the tix for face value though so can't complain too much. I feel bad for those who might have scalped then for 800 bucks. 

Been there many, Many times as i had season tix from 2000-2007, You just dress for the elements, You don't get to see your team live very often.

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