moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: HRRR and the 6z NAM interesting for later on.. quick flip to end? A little for Pete perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Look at what the 8z HRRR does to Tolland hills. Longitude FTW yikes that would be something . Flips to sleet by 3:30 and pounds NW side deform 4 hours lol edit 6/7 z HRRR have similar theme and 9z gives Tolland about 4” (which is less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 6z gfs That 2-5pm period looks good for Monads and O so close just SE of that as deform crushes those 7H V.V’s pound 495 /MHT SW back to Tolland /Union 19z -22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Obs thread is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: 00z/23? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 00z/23? Yeah, Tidbits has had some issues with uploading the rdps and the icon the past day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Yeah, Tidbits has had some issues with uploading the rdps and the icon the past day or two. I saw it on pivotal which has 00z/24 and it was SE of the 18z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 So......as we're now into the event.....dare we start giving the models a mid-term grade? I'm guessing F's all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: On 6z gfs That 2-5pm period looks good for Monads and O so close just SE of that as deform crushes those 7H V.V’s pound 495 /MHT SW back to Tolland /Union 19z -22z Anyone think hills can flip? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Anyone think hills can flip? It could end as some snow. Tough call but it probably wouldn't be enough to accumulate unless it's really pounding. Models have a hell of a stinger though so worth keeping an eye on....esp up toward hubbdave and Chris. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It could end as some snow. Tough call but it probably wouldn't be enough to accumulate unless it's really pounding. Models have a hell of a stinger though so worth keeping an eye on....esp up toward hubbdave and Chris. I’m gonna just got plan on no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Seems like PF getting the messenger tug. Crazy when 24 hours ago they looked sweet. I certainly thought they would do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like PF getting the messenger tug. Crazy when 24 hours ago they looked sweet. I certainly thought they would do well. The Freak Finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like PF getting the messenger tug. Crazy when 24 hours ago they looked sweet. I certainly thought they would do well. Craziest part is 36-48 hours ago it looked like this...only for two runs did every model go crazy inland. Like they ate some bad information at initialization. See that’s why we stay conservative most of the time. The east tick is always there. I had 1-3” up here so should be ok for an inch. The bigger bust even might be the northern Whites by Diane/Alex into the western Maine mtns...they were all like 12-18” on the models for longer than we were in it. 6z EURO had like under 1/2” of QPF in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 The ghost of messenger haunting N Greens....reindeer sweaters just littering the chairlifts and trees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Not too shockingly, Pete might wind up with a nice albeit minor early season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Craziest part is 36-48 hours ago it looked like this...only for two runs did every model go crazy inland. Like they ate some bad information at initialization. See that’s why we stay conservative most of the time. The east tick is always there. I had 1-3” up here so should be ok for an inch. The bigger bust even might be the northern Whites by Diane/Alex into the western Maine mtns...they were all like 12-18” on the models for longer than we were in it. 6z EURO had like under 1/2” of QPF in those areas. 36 hours from the event though...at least I didn’t expect that much of a shift even if you weren’t jacking. I thought you were easily good for a 6 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 36 hours from the event though...at least I didn’t expect that much of a shift even if you weren’t jacking. I thought you were easily good for a 6 spot. Models have been bad lately lol. Can’t trust anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Models have been bad lately lol. Can’t trust anything. Even the most reliable. It’s going to be a very emotional winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 I looked at radar and powderfreak was the first person I thought of. Yikes! Meanwhile, Maine up in dryslotville is snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Even the most reliable. It’s going to be a very emotional winter. Yeah the Euro up here in like 24 hours, went from 0.15” QPF jacked up to a max of 1.15” at MVL and then is now back to 0.22”. Thats a massive swing within 36 hours of an event. Just be happy this wasn’t done to SNE...a storm that looked like a whiff at 48 hours out, then a 8-12” bomb at 30 hours out, back to 1-3” by 12-18 hours out. And not just one model but all of them. Rollarcoaster ride. Can’t talk definitively until 12 hour lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the Euro up here in like 24 hours, went from 0.15” QPF jacked up to a max of 1.15” at MVL and then is now back to 0.22”. Thats a massive swing within 36 hours of an event. Just be happy this wasn’t done to SNE...a storm that looked like a whiff at 48 hours out, then a 8-12” bomb at 30 hours out, back to 1-3” by 12-18 hours out. And not just one model but all of them. Rollarcoaster ride. Can’t talk definitively until 12 hour lead time. Reminds me of the 3/2 storm last year. We got duped by about two model cycles 36-48 hours out...including the euro...that was slamming us with 8-15" of snow only to slide back east and turned into a 2-4" event. We did get the big 3/4 event a couple days later to take the sting out a bit but that was still a rough model headfake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the Euro up here in like 24 hours, went from 0.15” QPF jacked up to a max of 1.15” at MVL and then is now back to 0.22”. Thats a massive swing within 36 hours of an event. Just be happy this wasn’t done to SNE...a storm that looked like a whiff at 48 hours out, then a 8-12” bomb at 30 hours out, back to 1-3” by 12-18 hours out. And not just one model but all of them. Rollarcoaster ride. Can’t talk definitively until 12 hour lead time. When winter gets here, Its going to be a long one in the model world, Can't trust any of them even in the mid to short term, Pretty much have to nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 People at the game later (Will included) are going to be getting drenched! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: People at the game later (Will included) are going to be getting drenched! Yeah that's gonna be fun...lol. Hey, we got the tix for face value though so can't complain too much. I feel bad for those who might have scalped then for 800 bucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 My weather bug ap never gave me more than 3-6 and since I never use the model websites I was oblivious to the change every 3hrs...and weatherbug never had my area as 100% snow...I'm pretty content with weatherbug so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's gonna be fun...lol. Hey, we got the tix for face value though so can't complain too much. I feel bad for those who might have scalped then for 800 bucks. Been there many, Many times as i had season tix from 2000-2007, You just dress for the elements, You don't get to see your team live very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Tomorrow and Tuesday look well above freezing, so at least I don’t have to worry about clearing the slop off the driveway today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Got a surprise wake up from the baby at 4am and the deck and other areas were partially white and crusty. Some parts of the lawn and woods are white with sleet. Hugging 35* right now, I think we flip and get some good flakes later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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