powderfreak Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 2 hours ago, SR Airglow said: Not only has this one had one huge change, it's arguably had three; went NW, then went pretty far SE, then came back and now seems to be going SE again. And all inside 72 ish hours. Wild. Not sure what's causing this, but it only seems to be more and more prevalent in modeling over the last couple of winters, sure makes this a more aggravating (but also more enjoyable) hobby. Updated BTV/GYX maps seem reasonable, but I still think there's time for changes here given how variable this has been. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens. From a few storms we’ve had to track so far, my biggest concern is the lack of consistency and it seems like if 1 models shift, they all do. I feel like we used to see more stepwise shifts vs windshield wiper flips back and forth. And the more interesting part to me is that all the models seem to be ingesting the same data that is causing some big swings. Like all the sudden at 18z the models yesterday went apeshit amped up...but it’s not like just the NAM did it or something. They all did and the Euro was probably the worst of them all shoving 1-2” QPF to Canada. So they initialized something that made them go nuts for a couple runs. Then 12 hours later initialized something that made them go “oh whoops, back to the starting point.” Going to be a long winter of models, ha. I feel like they all just follow each other around, when in the past it would be a bigger spread but those models would be more consistent in their respective camps....if that makes sense. Like the Euro or GFS or NAM would disagree in a big way and hold that position for several runs. Now they all flip back and forth with whatever data they initialize with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS nothing like op which is tossed about 20% of the members keep a stronger and more persistent 50/50 low and are slower to eject the western trough - root for this for any hope at snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 22 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: 18z GFS does it again for the Cyber Monday storm. Too bad it's the GFS. What does the Euro have for that storm? Let me guess, congrats Chicago? Gfs is seeing the block. Euro isnt and most likely wrong if the block is real. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Goofus with a 965 mb South of Long Island on the 2nd. I am sure that is going to happen...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Early December 1992 was the ultimate 'bowling ball' coming across the country suppressed enough for a major snow event. I mean ultimate for the very early part of met. winter. Obviously we get them in later winter to spring. This was a year or so before I got all the good data on the net and I'm not sure what the state of the NAO was, etc. Kind of flying blind as an amateur before the net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 New EPS wind matrix product 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Goofus with a 965 mb South of Long Island on the 2nd. I am sure that is going to happen...lol The 12z ggem wasn't far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 It’s come to dissecting details of a day 9-10 threat...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 48 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is seeing the block. Euro isnt and most likely wrong if the block is real. ‘It’s wrong if the block is and right if it isn’t’. classic line lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s come to dissecting details of a day 9-10 threat...... We’re starving. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’re starving. Eh....winters on the way...pattern looks good...it’s 11/23. Weenies make this thread unreadable often. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Eh....winters on the way...pattern looks good...it’s 11/23. Weenies make this thread unreadable often. I find other trash from trolls unreadable. Snow88 excited about a d10 gfs threat is at least just a passionate weenie being a weenie. The pattern possibly supports something weenieish anyway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: ‘It’s wrong if the block is and right if it isn’t’. classic line lol. Its true. You really think the models will catch on to a block this far out. It's not about being a weenie. It's the truth. How many times have we seen models adjust to the blocking in the past ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’re starving. No need to eat before the harvest... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Instead of speculating about a D8-10 threat, what else is there? The misery of November? The great Turkey Day cutter of 2019... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: No need to eat before the harvest... A cold Novie was like putting out appetizers and as we were about to stuff our faces...the waitress takes it away, claiming it was for another table. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SophieG Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/10/2019 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said: I don’t see a negative PNA. The ridging stays more in the EPO region, but it will relax a tad. hopefully everyone sees it now. models are a great tool, but you have to look at the "weather" too...things seem to average out over time, sans the big anomalies. Everyone is data driven now, sometimes it really is that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A cold Novie was like putting out appetizers and as we were about to stuff our faces...the waitress takes it away, claiming it was for another table. OTOH, we’re stepping down like we used to. Yes it’s been a cold month but the step down has been fairly orderly and matches my boyhood memories. Also, being practically 73 years old lends perspective. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Man that late week low could be fun out here. What a monster for late November...looks more like a late winter low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SophieG Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/10/2019 at 4:09 PM, Drop the Trough said: big negative PNA coming, this pattern needs to snap back like rubber band, the west will enjoy some run of the mill base building in the mountains after 11/21, too early to lock in cold in the east, besides, my grass seed isn't done germinating and i have one more milorganite treatment to lay down. this was a good call...feet upon feet in the cottonwoods this week, Cali and Co will benefit too...who else saw the negative PNA? Even DTWX*** was barking no end to the cold through the remainder of November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, SophieG said: hopefully everyone sees it now. models are a great tool, but you have to look at the "weather" too...things seem to average out over time, sans the big anomalies. Everyone is data driven now, sometimes it really is that simple. there's no "big -PNA" coming, a drop yes but roughly -1 sd is forecasted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Instead of speculating about a D8-10 threat, what else is there? The misery of November? The great Turkey Day cutter of 2019... 26 degrees with precip beginning in about six hours. That's my focus. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 32 in MHT car full of gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 32 in MHT car full of gas Head for Carrabassett Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Head for Carrabassett Valley? No chance . If anything flash crashes to aggregates in Savoy in A.M I’ll head to monads . Somewhere between Mount Kearsarge , Temple mountain and Grantham area. All hour drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, Logan11 said: 26 degrees with precip beginning in about six hours. That's my focus. Yeah, I was speaking for the populations of most of NE, esp. SNE. We want this rainer in and out asap. Looking onward to met winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, SophieG said: this was a good call...feet upon feet in the cottonwoods this week, Cali and Co will benefit too...who else saw the negative PNA? Even DTWX*** was barking no end to the cold through the remainder of November. There hasn’t been. One of coldest Nov on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: No chance . If anything flash crashes to aggregates in Savoy in A.M I’ll head to monads . Somewhere between Mount Kearsarge , Temple mountain and Grantham area. All hour drive New London has very good elevation and places to hang out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: New London has very good elevation and places to hang out I’d stay out of SE CT at any cost 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: New London has very good elevation and places to hang out Yes somewhere on that elevated 89 stretch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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