dryslot Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just looking at models and it looks like today's runs have come back SE, The 18z Nam was quite a few tics SE, May get pulled back in last minute if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 NAM still was good for PF imo. Unless this really goes SE I think in between H7 and H5 should do ok. The fly in the ointment is how this is also hooking East. So you won’t get the big sling back of banding with slowing and expanding midlevels like you see in other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 18z NAM says thanks for playing try again next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Move to Georgia Dr. Dewsh! Snow is almost non existent..and the dews are right where you want em. life become much easier and less stressful when you can tolerate others opinions you don't like btw hope any SE trend is done, hopefully the ml low and precip shield trends back the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Boy 3K NAM really pulls this East. Crushes this area with rain. Nail biter for the hot tubs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 18z NAM says thanks for playing try again next time. Yeah tough one. I felt good this morning on 00z guidance, but looks like Messenger (RIP) playing games from above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 On the 12k Nam, That was a shift to the SE @H5 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: On the 12k Nam, That was a shift to the SE @H5 12z 18z Kicker right behind it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 18z HRRR even further SE, might get no measurable up this way. Gonna be a fun winter on the forum when every storm has huge changes inside of 48 hours. Might be good trends for the ORH hills. Not only has this one had one huge change, it's arguably had three; went NW, then went pretty far SE, then came back and now seems to be going SE again. And all inside 72 ish hours. Wild. Not sure what's causing this, but it only seems to be more and more prevalent in modeling over the last couple of winters, sure makes this a more aggravating (but also more enjoyable) hobby. Updated BTV/GYX maps seem reasonable, but I still think there's time for changes here given how variable this has been. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Kicker right behind it. It got kicked east, Went from tracking thru BHB at 12z to the Bay of Fundy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Why are these SE trends not helping the hills south and east? You’d think you’d at least see evidence of flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why are these SE trends not helping the hills south and east? You’d think you’d at least see evidence of flakes Climo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why are these SE trends not helping the hills south and east? You’d think you’d at least see evidence of flakes Because it's warm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 18Z Nam. This waffling is bafflingI'll take the NAM man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why are these SE trends not helping the hills south and east? You’d think you’d at least see evidence of flakes Airmass blows 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Low sun angle this time of year may lead to a few surprise inches for the Hubble and me. When there is a WWA hoisted there is always that chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Low sun angle this time of year may lead to a few surprise inches for the Hubble and me. When there is a WWA hoisted there is always that chance. The WWA in your location may be more for the mix/icing potential overnight as it ends at 8 AM. The best chance for a few inches there would be the backside flip if it in fact happens. Hopefully you guys and the Berks can pull off something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Those watching the HRRR runs today could see that first wave of precip that hits basically ORH and West (then really weakens) is dropping a quick 1-4inches (most west) between 2am and 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 GFS is so close to a coop collapser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: life become much easier and less stressful when you can tolerate others opinions you don't like btw hope any SE trend is done, hopefully the ml low and precip shield trends back the other way Maybe less stressful for you without constant trolling. Maybe take a break from the forum. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS is so close to a coop collapser. Coop Nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: 18z NAM says thanks for playing try again next time. The regular NAM was more stable versus it's prior run and didn't try to be so 'perfect' and thus shaft most of ENY and VT. Though it was mostly an MRG/SB and points south max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 27 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: The WWA in your location may be more for the mix/icing potential overnight as it ends at 8 AM. The best chance for a few inches there would be the backside flip if it in fact happens. Hopefully you guys and the Berks can pull off something. NWS had backside snowfall here in Enfield, now it's just ending as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 18z GFS does it again for the Cyber Monday storm. Too bad it's the GFS. What does the Euro have for that storm? Let me guess, congrats Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: 18z GFS does it again for the Cyber Monday storm. Too bad it's the GFS. What does the Euro have for that storm? Let me guess, congrats Chicago? more like minneapolis/duluth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, BombsAway1288 said: 18z GFS does it again for the Cyber Monday storm. Too bad it's the GFS. What does the Euro have for that storm? Let me guess, congrats Chicago? the cutter tracks too far west for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 deleting the December thread, ETan, there is no where proper to discuss the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: more like minneapolis/duluth. 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: the cutter tracks too far west for Chicago Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 EPS nothing like op which is tossed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 With smoothing and etc., the ensemble it not far off from the op. That could end up a colder system seeing there's decent blocking though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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