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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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Just now, Snow88 said:

I'm surprised there are not more talk about this upcoming pattern during the 1st week of  December.  I know we have been through this before but the models are bot backing down with the blocking and turning the epo negative. 

I'm thinking later in week 1 and beyond. Anything before is gravy imo.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally impressive height falls on all models now. Someone gonna get a Deck demolisher

It was last November 27th last year that I got a 13" birch wrecker.  18" up at 1400 feet but only a couple of sloppy inches down where everyone lives 500 feet or so.  Driving around these parts its easy to see how many birch trees are now forever bent over.  Similar event?  Tonights 0Z runs will be interesting for those few of us up here.

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

It was last November 27th that I got a 13" birch wrecker.  18" up at 1400 feet but only a couple of sloppy inches down where everyone lives 500 feet or so.  Driving around these parts its easy to see how many birch trees are now forever bent over.  Simlar event?  Tonights 0Z runs will be interesting for those few of us up here.

Maybe I'll drive up and break in the Noyes complex.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally impressive height falls on all models now. Someone gonna get a Deck demolisher

The runs today have deepened the core of the ULL more than before...which is the trend we need for snow. So we're seeing a little more dynamic cooling in the meat of the deformation precip. We'll see if we can cool things another tick...but CNE is starting to maybe thread the needle here? 

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The runs today have deepened the core of the ULL more than before...which is the trend we need for snow. So we're seeing a little more dynamic cooling in the meat of the deformation precip. We'll see if we can cool things another tick...but CNE is starting to maybe thread the needle here? 

 

100% chance wire to wire R+ here to ORH?

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14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

It was last November 27th last year that I got a 13" birch wrecker.  18" up at 1400 feet but only a couple of sloppy inches down where everyone lives 500 feet or so.  Driving around these parts its easy to see how many birch trees are now forever bent over.  Similar event?  Tonights 0Z runs will be interesting for those few of us up here.

The birch trees in my front yard took a beating in oct 2011 and never recovered. Gypsy moths finished em off last year. Next year they're firewood.

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21 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

The birch trees in my front yard took a beating in oct 2011 and never recovered. Gypsy moths finished em off last year. Next year they're firewood.

Speaking of gypsies.. this was crawling on the house today. We literally have every type of cat here. Anyone know if this is a winter moth?

 

XEfsIdx.jpg

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The runs today have deepened the core of the ULL more than before...which is the trend we need for snow. So we're seeing a little more dynamic cooling in the meat of the deformation precip. We'll see if we can cool things another tick...but CNE is starting to maybe thread the needle here? 

 

Prepping the skis to launch for Loon; I’d think their far enough north to remain all snow and it seems like the QPF axis will be pretty similar between there and SR so an hour less driving is appealing.
 

This has been quite the back and forth on the guidance, wouldn’t be surprised if we keep seeing more ticks as it’s a pretty sensitive setup. Good to be back model watching again, forgot how addictive this hobby can be, but gonna be a long winter if every system is this turbulent in the short-mid range.

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How big a role will elevations play given we rely on dynamics if we imagine for a moment the gfs solution were to play out 

They would def play a big role. Though even the lower areas would do well in CNE if the GFS verified. 

Btw, 18z euro trended poorly. Open wave and not the deepening MLs we're looking for. 

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