MJO812 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Kevin , I wouldn't be giving weenies if I was you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 You know PF has just been sitting back waiting for the RGEM type run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not for CT. We are SOL. Even elevations Most models still have mid levels 2-3 degrees above where we want them for any chance of snow S of high elevations in S VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Gah. Don’t need that Sunday afternoon. good thing it’s the FV3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 This storm has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was good for you and Gene as well. At least imo. I guess it just comes down to dynamics. Totally impressive height falls on all models now. Someone gonna get a Deck demolisher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 I would love my deck to be taken down by this, but alas there’s just no chance. 33 rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally impressive height falls on all models now. Someone gonna get a Deck demolisher Yeah, N of a line from Savoy MA to Portland ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Maybe scrape an inch out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: I guess you are new. Have you looked at the models ? Everything is favorable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: Everything is favorable? Yes on the gfs. Do you even look at the models or are you just a knucklehead.? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 I'm surprised there are not more talk about this upcoming pattern during the 1st week of December. I know we have been through this before but the models are bot backing down with the blocking and turning the epo negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: I'm surprised there are not more talk about this upcoming pattern during the 1st week of December. I know we have been through this before but the models are bot backing down with the blocking and turning the epo negative. I'm thinking later in week 1 and beyond. Anything before is gravy imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally impressive height falls on all models now. Someone gonna get a Deck demolisher It was last November 27th last year that I got a 13" birch wrecker. 18" up at 1400 feet but only a couple of sloppy inches down where everyone lives 500 feet or so. Driving around these parts its easy to see how many birch trees are now forever bent over. Similar event? Tonights 0Z runs will be interesting for those few of us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I would love my deck to be taken down by this, but alas there’s just no chance. 33 rains Maybe even 36F rains? This is for NNE peeps. Even CNE has to have the timing of temp crash and precip rates just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: It was last November 27th that I got a 13" birch wrecker. 18" up at 1400 feet but only a couple of sloppy inches down where everyone lives 500 feet or so. Driving around these parts its easy to see how many birch trees are now forever bent over. Simlar event? Tonights 0Z runs will be interesting for those few of us up here. Maybe I'll drive up and break in the Noyes complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yes on the gfs. Do you even look at the models or are you just a knucklehead.? two out of the three are right, and we know the gfs ain't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, N of a line from Savoy MA to Portland ME. I am more optimistic now than this morning for a sig dump in the Berks Hunchie Monads and Jeffafafa line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally impressive height falls on all models now. Someone gonna get a Deck demolisher The runs today have deepened the core of the ULL more than before...which is the trend we need for snow. So we're seeing a little more dynamic cooling in the meat of the deformation precip. We'll see if we can cool things another tick...but CNE is starting to maybe thread the needle here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The runs today have deepened the core of the ULL more than before...which is the trend we need for snow. So we're seeing a little more dynamic cooling in the meat of the deformation precip. We'll see if we can cool things another tick...but CNE is starting to maybe thread the needle here? 100% chance wire to wire R+ here to ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm thinking later in week 1 and beyond. Anything before is gravy imo. Pattern relaxation storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 100% chance wire to wire R+ here to ORH? Prob like 90-95%...maybe 75% for ORH. At least for anything accumulating. It def could end as a few mangled flakes pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Pattern relaxation storm ? You mean do I expect something as it relaxes? I have no idea when that would occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: It was last November 27th last year that I got a 13" birch wrecker. 18" up at 1400 feet but only a couple of sloppy inches down where everyone lives 500 feet or so. Driving around these parts its easy to see how many birch trees are now forever bent over. Similar event? Tonights 0Z runs will be interesting for those few of us up here. The birch trees in my front yard took a beating in oct 2011 and never recovered. Gypsy moths finished em off last year. Next year they're firewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 21 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: The birch trees in my front yard took a beating in oct 2011 and never recovered. Gypsy moths finished em off last year. Next year they're firewood. Speaking of gypsies.. this was crawling on the house today. We literally have every type of cat here. Anyone know if this is a winter moth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The runs today have deepened the core of the ULL more than before...which is the trend we need for snow. So we're seeing a little more dynamic cooling in the meat of the deformation precip. We'll see if we can cool things another tick...but CNE is starting to maybe thread the needle here? Prepping the skis to launch for Loon; I’d think their far enough north to remain all snow and it seems like the QPF axis will be pretty similar between there and SR so an hour less driving is appealing. This has been quite the back and forth on the guidance, wouldn’t be surprised if we keep seeing more ticks as it’s a pretty sensitive setup. Good to be back model watching again, forgot how addictive this hobby can be, but gonna be a long winter if every system is this turbulent in the short-mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob like 90-95%...maybe 75% for ORH. At least for anything accumulating. It def could end as a few mangled flakes pretty easily. How big a role will elevations play given we rely on dynamics if we imagine for a moment the gfs solution were to play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 18Z Euro even further west. Low cuts through Cape Cod canel through Boston harbor to Cape Ann 978mb.. Throws 1-2" of qpf into all of NNE. Should be interesting for high elevations of Whites and especially Vermont 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Speaking of gypsies.. this was crawling on the house today. We literally have every type of cat here. Anyone know if this is a winter moth? It was nice of Steve to give you his old phone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How big a role will elevations play given we rely on dynamics if we imagine for a moment the gfs solution were to play out They would def play a big role. Though even the lower areas would do well in CNE if the GFS verified. Btw, 18z euro trended poorly. Open wave and not the deepening MLs we're looking for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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