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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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Yeah here is the pivotalwx clown map...def trying to up the threat for Monads into S ME. I think these maps are probably more useless than usual though in a setup like this....it's going to be all about omega really. I think some of this is probably rain before the flip but the algorithm assumes that if the 3 or 6 hour period ends as snow, the entire LE during that period is snow too.

 

Nov22_12zEuroClownmap.png

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah here is the pivotalwx clown map...def trying to up the threat for Monads into S ME. I think these maps are probably more useless than usual though in a setup like this....it's going to be all about omega really. I think some of this is probably rain before the flip but the algorithm assumes that if the 3 or 6 hour period ends as snow, the entire LE during that period is snow too.

 

Nov22_12zEuroClownmap.png

Yeah, Its is rain on the front end of that to start, But at which time does it flip or if it does is the question.

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It's November, man.  This is a great pattern for November, active, flirting with snow and gettings some bits here and there, snowpack building to the north...and signs that the pattern gets better into early December with some blocking.  I'm psyched, we could have our permenant winter pack down by end of first week of December.

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Really volatile ensemble runs with the NAO...not a huge surprise, but that is gonna be a factor in how December starts. The PNA has been rising on recent runs too.

EPO into NW PNA domain improved, but the Davis Straits ridge became a trough. Almost like things sifted East a tad. But yeah I expect that. My opinion is that a true threat likely isn’t until the 7-8 of December or beyond. Maybe that system prior gets shunted, but I’m sort of setting that as my timeline. 

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