Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 anyway ... that system was on the charts and we smirked as typical ..They've been on and off, spraying surface lows all over the place - this GGEM solution is rather abhorrently robust relative to whatever trend the former had. But, I still feel overall it's a valid little critter to watch ( if it doesn't evolve more...). It seems to be happening on the front edge of the next contintental surge of cold air and those do tend to curl early so heh. I still say the signal next up is a bit more impressive so there's no waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 1, 2019 Author Share Posted November 1, 2019 MEX says we climo BOS first freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 53 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Perhaps Will or someone else would know... What the the average first measurable snowfall date for the 4 SNE climo sites? I'm guessing for ORH it is around Nov 15-20 or so... I don't have the numbers for everyone else, but just doing a quick calculation for ORH since 1990, I get November 20th as average first measurable. (Obviously average first trace happens earlier) So your guesstimate range was accurate. Maybe Chris could pull up the official averages for everyone at his finger tips. My ORH numbers include the lost 1995-2002 years when had a couple October snowfalls so they are probably different than the official ncdc numbers. (But mine will be more accurate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 Trough @H5 on the 12z Euro was to far north and not as sharp as the 12z CMC but its not far off from producing something around the 8th if we can get it to dig further south and go negative sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't have the numbers for everyone else, but just doing a quick calculation for ORH since 1990, I get November 20th as average first measurable. (Obviously average first trace happens earlier) So your guesstimate range was accurate. Question made me curious about home, where it's Nov. 10. In 21 winters 1st measurable has come in Oct 6 times and once in Dec. (7th, 2006) with the other 14 in Nov. No Oct measurable for 2019 but looks good for a 15th for Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 First average trace for me is 11/7, measurable it's 11/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: what . Wonder how ECMWF headquarters feels about that. It's gotta be a change in policy by that org. Previously ECMWF did not allow any of their data to be shared publicly except for the basic images they provide on their site. Ryan Maue had the warning disclaimer up on his site about it. That went for any Euro data vendor. He had stated he tried many times he had tried to get clearance from them for free distribution of the maps he provides...even offering more money for the clearance. I assume he either worked out a deal with them or they gave the OK for everyone. Of course people have continued to post the Euro data here for years, but technically we were not supposed to allow it. But it at least let’s me breathe a little easier knowing we won’t be possibly held accountable for that anymore...at least if it’s maps from weathermodels.com. If it’s cleared for all vendors then everyone can feel free to go wild with the posting of maps this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, MetHerb said: First average trace for me is 11/7, measurable it's 11/17. 1” 11/27? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 3 hours ago, MetHerb said: First average trace for me is 11/7, measurable it's 11/17. Your numbers are a couple days earlier than ORH which is surprising. Though you go back prior to 1991 which is where I started. 1988 was really early on 10/8 so that would prob push back the date. Then add in the early November 1987 and 1986 snowfalls and that prob pushes it back even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 3 hours ago, dendrite said: I assume he either worked out a deal with them or they gave the OK for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Cold is definitely coming, some packets of energy will be on the playing field so chance of snow is solid. Timing of SW disturbances tbd. I think we go cold and dry. We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 36.8 already...first night below 30 incoming it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 Euro with the snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro with the snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 We 20's currently 28.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 That’s one snowy Euro op run for Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Euro with the snowstorm Texted a couple guys this yesterday and they told me fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Texted a couple guys this yesterday and they told me fropa. Anyway this could scoot a bit south and hit everybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Wagons north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 35. Coldest yet as I head out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wagons north? Did you see the gefs ? Plenty of members have really fun solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Did you see the gefs ? Plenty of members have really fun solutions. I don’t look at it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Euro wasn’t far off at 12z yesterday, That is a good run at 0z if we can hold that for another couple days it could be our first shot at some wintry weather for the 8 th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t look at it. It has alot of interesting solutions. Eps is also interesting especially for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It has alot of interesting solutions. Eps is also interesting especially for your area. It always does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It always does. This is the 1st legit storm next wekeend. The epo press is going to dictate how far south the low comes. Right now your area and northward looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Yeah. Lock it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: This is the 1st legit storm next wekeend. The epo press is going to dictate how far south the low comes. Right now your area and northward looks good. It's something to watch at least. Canadian sort of has a flat wave developing SE of us too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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