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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

See my Dec 1970 reply to Scott. Having lower heights than normal across the entire N US has produced some good Dec snow storms.. That neg PNA coupled with a neg nao works. We always need help.

I am not getting into specifics and I do understand that a -pna -nao isnt a death sentence, especially moving onward. Again I'm cautious with that upstream look, that's all. Esp. for early winter

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

More of a NH Hubb Dave dealio

Def the most favored area. Esp elevations. But this could pop a little further SE as we go through the afternoon....gotta watch for a little surprise. It gets pretty chilly aloft...I don't hate the soundings and we get the classic almost-calm look in the midlevels. 

Hopefully there's enough LL convergence.

Keep expectations low but keep an eye on the radar tomorrow. 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def the most favored area. Esp elevations. But this could pop a little further SE as we go through the afternoon....gotta watch for a little surprise. It gets pretty chilly aloft...I don't hate the soundings and we get the classic almost-calm look in the midlevels. 

Hopefully there's enough LL convergence.

Keep expectations low but keep an eye on the radar tomorrow. 

2-3" above 1k?

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

2-3" above 1k?

It's possible. I prob wouldnt forecast that but it wouldn't be shocking if that occurred. I'd like to see a little more defined sfc IVT than shown right now to be confident in more than snow showers. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Pretty good agreement with 18z euro on starting this from A Mitch-ORH axis and then beware of the little blowup in coastal E MA late tomorrow PM and early evening. 

It does get some respectable cold at 925 and winds are NW at the surface. Decent rates could easily get it 32-33 I think even near coast.  But, flakes in the air would be just fine too.

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