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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Ray has no interest he told us so.

It's admittedly an uphill battle...but there's this shot of brief (but real) cold on Friday night/Saturday. So if that can set the stage enough...we could pull off something over the interior. 

The storm itself needs to be a little better organized too. 

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Just now, MaineJayhawk said:

Sounds like it snowed out there.  He said models indicated perhaps an inch, you debbied it yesterday and now are being dickish.  It's all good, I know who plays what roles here.

I don't know what you mean. I don't think he saw more than catpaws in the valley. I said maybe a slushy coating at best. 

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Look the whole point is education. There is a reason why we call those maps clown maps. They are too simplistic and use algorithms that fail in marginal setups. I hate to see people fall for those and we try to educate the enthusiasts about why they aren't good. I guess that makes me a DB. 

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Just now, weathafella said:

Will vs Scooter biased by their growing up geography.   Will sees possible snow.  Scooter closes the shades till December. Will gee up in Worcester...Scooter SE MA.

It is definitely that time of year where coastal kids and jackpot queens will downplay even small interior events, like clockwork.  Its important to show non interest.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look the whole point is education. There is a reason why we call those maps clown maps. They are too simplistic and use algorithms that fail in marginal setups. I hate to see people fall for those and we try to educate the enthusiasts about why they aren't good. I guess that makes me a DB. 

Name 1 poster who referenced a clown map and said that was what they expected.  I am betting you can't. Pretty sure no one in this forum is unaware of clown maps. But I bet those who expected at least flakes saw them. The clown maps did show pretty correctly the extent not the amount

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Name 1 poster who referenced a clown map and said that was what they expected.  I am betting you can't. Pretty sure no one in this forum is unaware of clown maps. But I bet those who expected at least flakes saw them. The clown maps did show pretty correctly the extent not the amount

They all showed either “blue” or up to 1” which Ineedsnow referenced. I saw what he saw. That is why I said that those maps aren’t great in marginal setups and then went on to explain how warm it was below 850.  You can easily infer what people are seeing based on posts. Those snow maps are easily available, but they can mislead you too.

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It is definitely that time of year where coastal kids and jackpot queens will downplay even small interior events, like clockwork.  Its important to show non interest.

I think its important to share throughts regarding weather, since this is a forum. That is all I did.

 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

They all showed either “blue” or up to 1” which Ineedsnow referenced. I saw what he saw. That is why I said that those maps aren’t great in marginal setups and then went on to explain how warm it was below 850.  You can easily infer what people are seeing based on posts. Those snow maps are easily available, but they can mislead you too.

Sure but no one expected accumulation, so you had to throw in the hope he can dig out line, thats where the Masshole in you comes out. Ha

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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Will vs Scooter biased by their growing up geography.   Will sees possible snow.  Scooter closes the shades till December. Will grew up in Worcester...Scooter SE MA.

It prob plays into the subconscious bias...I've seen a lot of marginal setups work out in the interior over the years. Obviously near the coast it doesn't happen as often. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It prob plays into the subconscious bias...I've seen a lot of marginal setups work out in the interior over the years. Obviously near the coast it doesn't happen as often. 

I'm not biased in that sense...there are times when I feel ORH will get crushed, and I won't.

This isn't one of them. Do they have a better shot an an inch of slush?

Sure-

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not biased in that sense...there are times when I feel ORH will get crushed, and I won't.

This isn't one of them. Do they have a better shot an an inch of slush?

Sure-

Right...but your "big storm" bias is showing here. Who said anything about "crushed"?

It wouldn't take that much for like a 3-6" advisory type over the elevated interior. Is it favored? No. But we can't rule it out. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They all showed either “blue” or up to 1” which Ineedsnow referenced. I saw what he saw. That is why I said that those maps aren’t great in marginal setups and then went on to explain how warm it was below 850.  You can easily infer what people are seeing based on posts. Those snow maps are easily available, but they can mislead you too.

I think some of the sites rush the cold air in too soon too. Like the model finally shows the ptype going over to snow at 12hr and then the clown map paints everything from 9hr to 12hr as accumulation even though it just flipped. You see that with the anafrontal stuff all of the time when in reality the rain moves out just as the snow profile advects in. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right...but your "big storm" bias is showing here. Who said anything about "crushed"?

It wouldn't take that much for like a 3-6" advisory type over the elevated interior. Is it favored? No. But we can't rule it out. 

Everything is relative and its November....3-6" is "crushed".

Misinterpretation on your part.

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Just now, dendrite said:

I think some of the sites rush the cold air in too soon too. Like the model finally shows the ptype going over to snow at 12hr and then the clown map paints everything from 9hr to 12hr as accumulation even though it just flipped. You see that with the anafrontal stuff all of the time when in reality the rain moves out just as the snow profile advects in. 

It just doesn’t look right when you look at the raw data. I really hate that and all kidding aside, I hate seeing people believe it. I’m just speaking in general...I’m not trying to single anyone out here. Same goes for those GD wind gust products.

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