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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tday week got warmer with cold dropping a bit further west but the really ugly pig that was showing up on the 00z run a couple nights ago is not there. 

In fact, it looks like the beginning of an EPO reload at the very end of the run. There's some NAO blocking too...so can't totally punt Tday yet...esp for NNE. 

Uh oh I guess we're back to crossing our fingers for the long range to work out. We know how abysmal last year's weeklies turned out. 

The NAO has constantly verified weaker outside Spring/Summer for many years now. I suspect the -EPO will come back after Grinchmas. 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Uh oh I guess we're back to crossing our fingers for the long range to work out. We know how abysmal last year's weeklies turned out. 

The NAO has constantly verified weaker outside Spring/Summer for many years now. I suspect the -EPO will come back after Grinchmas. 

I'm not sure what you are talking about...we've been in a really good pattern for weeks...why do we need to hope the LR changes things?

We don't want much change....an EPO reload is a good thing.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure what you are talking about...we've been in a really good pattern for weeks...why do we need to hope the LR changes things?

We don't want much change....an EPO reload is a good thing.

He didn’t get a snowstorm in the first half of November so all is lost...

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think many of feeling that. 

This is why a normal to slightly above normal is much better for November, no need to waste so much money on heating the house with so little chance of snowfall...Today despite the colder weather is the first day my humidifiers are not running, since the end of October it seems.  The misery mist is good for something at least.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think many of feeling that. 

Yeah...I mean, we do get a reshuffle a bit in the N PAC with a transient Bering vortex later this week, but it looks like we quickly rebuild the cross polar flow N of AK after that and then maybe a full EPO reload in the beginning stages at the very end of the run.

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure what you are talking about...we've been in a really good pattern for weeks...why do we need to hope the LR changes things?

We don't want much change....an EPO reload is a good thing.

Ya know.. I'm learning to not get so frustrated with some of the people on here who are Debbie Downers. They will always be here, even when you try to send a reply as to encourage them to look ahead ( especially when it is so dang early in the season ). I myself will now enjoy a healthy conversation and look forward to fun times ahead ( amd that I am pretty sure of )  

19 hours ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Hanging out at 33.8F here instead of the forecast 42.

Just about the same temp here in Plainville. Temperatures were supposed to be in the 40s today, I wonderto if they will hoist winter weather advisory for Hartford County as well.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A WWA for cold rain?

Yeah my question from this morning's been answered ... 

We appear to have saturated from the bottom up ... which likely means the dry air/hygroscopic stuff was too thin and not so deep in the sounding that we could wet-bulb the right way. So, 33.5 to 35 F regionally in a WWA cancellation scenario may be the destiny.   Tomorrow looks unstable to me though with that v-max running up overhead. Squalls?

So... as pathetic as it may be to try and recoup anything interesting out of this pattern/event, we've been reduced to not even having that fail.   Amazing to put up this kind of negative departures for two solid weeks and simultaneously bear witness to this.  We've had 12" Novie snow bombs in warmer months on several occasions. I mean, yeah yeah yeah November climate, but ... mm, it's still a deep enough seasonal month that when your at -5 or lower, things should be working out more entertaining.  interesting.  

Welp, kind of concur with Scott there that we appear destined to a doldrum patterning here for a while.  The GFS has limited support from it's ensemble members, but it keeps trying to flag some sort of dynamic windy cyclone toward the weekend abutting t-g day.  Maybe something of cinema can come of that.   

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

ORH at -7.4F going into Nov 18

That's nasty

These departures are on par with early December climo. So although no one in SNE should be upset about missing out on snow in November, it has acted like a winter month. The temps have been there since the first week....the snow just has not.

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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ya know.. I'm learning to not get so frustrated with some of the people on here who are Debbie Downers. They will always be here, even when you try to send a reply as to encourage them to look ahead ( especially when it is so dang early in the season ). I myself will now enjoy a healthy conversation and look forward to fun times ahead ( amd that I am pretty sure of )  

Just about the same temp here in Plainville. Temperatures were supposed to be in the 40s today, I wonderto if they will hoist winter weather advisory for Hartford County as well.

Every season there are SNE meltdowns in November because people didn't get snow when their climo is like 1-2" of snow for the whole month outside of the Berks....maybe as high as 3" in ORH county. It's equivalent to melting down in April because it didn't snow....

We've been a little unlucky to not have gotten probably at least one measurable event, but it's not that uncommon at all to miss out on snow during early December either with average temps.

 

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32 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

This is why a normal to slightly above normal is much better for November, no need to waste so much money on heating the house with so little chance of snowfall...Today despite the colder weather is the first day my humidifiers are not running, since the end of October it seems.  The misery mist is good for something at least.

Yea but there is a small correlation between Novie and ensuing winter so I kind of like where we are...even though I’m watching money burn as the I hear the pipes click. Small sacrifices for potential weeniesm. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea but there is a small correlation between Novie and ensuing winter so I kind of like where we are...even though I’m watching money burn as the I hear the pipes click. Small sacrifices for potential weeniesm. 

yup, a November torch is definitely not wanted around here....50s/30s would be great until Turkey Day

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