MJO812 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 7th storm is coming in further south on the gfs thanks to the epo press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 First snow event inside of 200h now? GFS has it at 186-192. Lol Euro should track it through Ottawa in a couple hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It does look like we start to lose the EPO block toward mid-month and beyond, but we'll have to see as we get closer that it's not breaking down too quickly which happens often. mm... beware 2015 tho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Severe weather possible tonight...a near moderate risk just to our southwest and people are focused on snow >200 hours out??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Severe weather possible tonight...a near moderate risk just to our southwest and people are focused on snow >200 hours out??? This is the November thread, Last i checked other then 20 towns in MA, Halloween is still in Oct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 3 hours ago, weathafella said: And for the record-normal first freeze at KBOS is 11/7. Amazing what it takes now to get normal cold-seasonal related events to happen, and happen when they are supposed to. I submit we may achieve that this year, with a -2 SD pattern. I have a rude awakening message for folks... if it were not for these EPO explosions we've been dappling along the time lines of recent decades, winters would already be hugely stressed. But they are offsetting in a peculiar way. It's either +10 at all times, or -20 ... but fewer COL times that happen to situated normalcy. ..not exactly ..just making the point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: This is the November thread, Last i checked other then 20 towns in MA, Halloween is still in Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: If you don't radiate then it's even a bit late for freeze. But the Lowell coop up there actually had first freeze 10/6. That's earlier than their 10/14 average. But they are clearly a rad spot. I am around 170-180 ft, at the bottom of Fox Hill and further SW Billerica center which are like 250 350'+. I do radiate but it's not a hole. It seems late for not hitting 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I am around 170-180 ft, at the bottom of Fox Hill and further SW Billerica center which are like 250 350'+. I do radiate but it's not a hole. It seems late for not hitting 32. I'm 145 feet and further southwest and have 5 readings at or below 32. I would think you would have had at least 1 or 2 by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I'm 145 feet and further southwest and have 5 readings at or below 32. I would think you would have had at least 1 or 2 by now. His davis is in his kitchen near a window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I'm 145 feet and further southwest and have 5 readings at or below 32. I would think you would have had at least 1 or 2 by now. Lowell co-OP (3 mi) and Bedford asos (8 mi.) lowest were 32...Bedford 4 times Lowell once. Both are decent radiators, I am not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Severe weather possible tonight...a near moderate risk just to our southwest and people are focused on snow >200 hours out??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And he has a thread for this no less............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: people are focused on snow >200 hours out??? Kinda like a low topped line of convection 8 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Kinda like a low topped line of convection 8 days out? but at least that pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 16 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Hi john. I am from Arkansas. I have a question. What do we need to see take place for the flow to slow down from being so fast like you have mentioned many times so far. Is it a -nao or more than that? Hello Kevin, Unfortunately, the more formulative explanation requires one has had comprehensive and most importantly, learned exposure to a rather vast array of geophysical backgrounds - from academia to the frontiers of environmental observation and research. Firstly, this is not simply a matter of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO can ephemerally increase the overall mid tropospheric wind velocities ( usually more over regions of the continent east of your longitude..). However, those periods tend not to last more than 7 to 10 days in most extreme cases. It may also recur after a relaxed intersession, when less height compression mid level winds are observed, and then as the index renews its descent, flow speeds again ... etc. That whole phenomenon is different than what is happening globally at mid latitude. First, one needs to understand why the flow can be fast or slow. When you see a shorter distance between the geopotential lines on a standard 500 mb level chart, that means there are faster wind speeds taking place. When the gaps widen...the opposite is true. In the case of the NAO above, heights usually lower over eastern Ontario, as they do, this introduces more lines ( which is a reflection of increasing gradient ) to the chart between that region and the mid Atlantic latitudes. Increasing the lines/gradient --> increasing the wind flow. When height rise over eastern Ontario, naturally the opposite occurs. What you are asking has an answer that not found in that paragraph. It's a global distinction having to do with warming the tropical band that encircles the global, and then having it begin to expand width. As it does, heigths at mid latitudes either have to rise with it, or, increase in gradient. In the N.H. Summer ( same in theirs..) this is not as noticeable. In fact, at times this tropical/sub-tropical band ( known as the 'Hadley Cell') will even blend with the gener R-wave layout and it's amorphous - you might think of summer as having lighter winds. Then, the ensuing autumn begins to see the heights lower up N first of course, and as that expands south this 'ballooned' HC is not reducing as it used to, decades ago, because of the resident nature of the whole warming atmosphere. That is creating the onset of the surplus gradient at mid latitudes. Hopefully from this you can get some idea why this is happening - difference with the NAO. "What we need to see take place" is cool the whole HC - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: but at least that pans out It does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Hello Kevin, Unfortunately, the more formulative explanation requires one has had comprehensive and most importantly, learned exposure to a rather vast array geophysical backgrounds - from academia to the frontiers of environmental observation and research. Firstly, this is not simply a matter of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO can ephemerally increase the overall mid tropospheric wind velocities ( usually more over regions of the continent east your longitude..). However, those periods tend not to last more than 7 to 10 days in most extreme cases. It may also recur after a relaxed intersession, when less height compression mid level winds are observed, and then as the index renews its descent, flow speeds again ... etc. That whole phenomenon is different than what is happening globally at mid latitude. First, one needs to understand why the flow can be fast or slow. When you see a shorter distance between the geopotential lines on a standard 500 mb level chart, that means there are faster wind speeds taking place. When the gaps widen...the opposite is true. In the case of the NAO above, heights usually lower over eastern Ontario, as they do, this introduces more lines ( which is a reflection of increasing gradient ) to the chart between that region and the mid Atlantic latitudes. Increasing the lines/gradient --> increasing the wind flow. When height rise over eastern Ontario, naturally the opposite occurs. What you are asking has an answer that not found in that paragraph. It's a global distinction having to do with warming the tropical band that encircles the global, and then having it begin to expand width. As it does, heigths at mid latitudes either have to rise with it, or, increase in gradient. In the N.H. Summer ( same in theirs..) this is not as noticeable. In fact, at times this tropical/sub-tropical band ( known as the 'Hadley Cell') will even blend with the gener R-wave layout and it's amorphous - you might think of summer as having lighter winds. Then, the ensuing autumn begins to see the heights lower up N first of course, and as that expands south this 'ballooned' HC is not reducing as it used to, decades ago, because of the resident nature of the whole warming atmosphere. That is creating the onset of the surplus gradient at mid latitudes. Hopefully from this you can get some idea why this is happening - difference with the NAO. "What we need to see take place" is cool the whole HC - Hello Tip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hello Tip um yeah ? ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: It does? yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 56 minutes ago, weathafella said: It does? How many times do we read his posts of standing on the side of a highway with his Polaroid camera, hair tied in a pony tail with his sleeves rolled up, ready for severe....only to be followed with subsequent posts so angered that another line failed to produce anything more than a grey cloud farting an occasional sprinkle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How many times do we read his posts of standing on the side of a highway with his Polaroid camera, hair tied in a pony tail with his sleeves rolled up, ready for severe....only to be followed with subsequent posts so angered that another line failed to produce anything more than a grey cloud farting an occasional sprinkle. Nothing will ever beat him selling hot dogs at the local high school baseball game when he could have been chasing in southern MA on 6/1/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nothing will ever beat him selling hot dogs at the local high school baseball game when he could have been chasing in southern MA on 6/1/11 The weenie selling weenies and missing a legit tornado. Priceless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nothing will ever beat him selling hot dogs at the local high school baseball game when he could have been chasing in southern MA on 6/1/11 I thought he was at an ice rink or something ha, but that sounds familiar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nothing will ever beat him selling hot dogs at the local high school baseball game when he could have been chasing in southern MA on 6/1/11 Lol.. he was putting metal numbers on an elevated platform on a metal scoreboard at a little league field . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 poor wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How many times do we read his posts of standing on the side of a highway with his Polaroid camera, hair tied in a pony tail with his sleeves rolled up, ready for severe....only to be followed with subsequent posts so angered that another line failed to produce anything more than a grey cloud farting an occasional sprinkle. Finishing every chase with just a shelf cloud pic is kinda like going home with a girl and only getting a grinding with all clothes on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Finishing every chase with just a shelf cloud pic is kinda like going home with a girl and only getting a grinding with all clothes on. Then going home to look at pictures of the real, right? Supercells that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Then going home to look at pictures of the real, right? Supercells that is. lol...before I forget here’s that link with the error and biases. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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