CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: All the models are starting to show that. Another false hope ? We haven't had real blocking in years. It’s probably something that we always see at some point in every winter. I don’t see a huge worry overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: All the models are starting to show that. Another false hope ? We haven't had real blocking in years. Take some extra police training courses and get away from wx 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Brrrrr... Island Pond, VT (ISPV1) -11F SLK -9F BML -6F EFK -5F HIE -4F MVL -4F Can confirm. Valleys definitely colder than hills. XC skied at 6:30 from 1100' to 900' in Craftsbury and the temperature must have dropped by 5 degrees. And it was 0 at the top … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Hey guys and gals. I have been a weather Enthusiast for years. I always enjoy coming on here to talk about latest model runs a different aspects of the weather. What's not enjoyable is when certain people complain when something doesn't go their way. The whole fun about whether is the changes that comes every hour. Those are some of the wonderful things about weather. Can it be frustrating, yes, but, in the end, it can be rewarding. So, try to enjoy all the fun things about the weather Instead of getting caught up in all the negative things. This is going to be a great Winter! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Take some extra police training courses and get away from wx Torch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, ariof said: Can confirm. Valleys definitely colder than hills. XC skied at 6:30 from 1100' to 900' in Craftsbury and the temperature must have dropped by 5 degrees. And it was 0 at the top … 21° on the summit of MWN right now while the valleys are still in the low single digits. Once we mix out a little bit it should end up a pretty nice day in NNE...if we can hold the sun long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Some real jaded posts today. Not sure what got into people. On a more positive note, only 34 very short days until the sun angle starts increasing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Bring on the pig.... we’re due for a real ratter in SNE. Maybe we can get some nice weather out of it and transition into some Morch 12’ like weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I also think the various indices (ENSO/PDO/AO, etc.) are resulting in different outcomes and we should be very cautious when we use analogs older than about 30 years. There are some warm blobs in the oceans that seem to hang around from year to year. The gulf stream is also warming more quickly than other parts of the ocean (more bombogenesis and higher precip outcomes? we're already seeing it.) Well... ur not far off. I've been discussing this at length in various threads around the weather -related social media, that the Hadley Cell ( semi permanent global feature the girdles the globe to approximately 30 N and S of Equator in previous decades prior to 2000 ) has been notably and empirically expanding, and is causing storm tracks to shit N ( among other aspects ..) This is papered and peer reviewed assessment work - it's not just me conjecturing from a relative position of weather education and speculation arts - which admittedly, I'm talented in that capacity. Hahaha. Seriously, part of the Hadely Cell expansion is that it's boundary with the mid latitudes is not readily identifiable.. as in, aligning along some particular isohypses. It's determined fluid mechanically and thermodynamic from location to location. One possible clue is that the flow inside the Hadley tends to take on more easterly component. But overall, the boundaries are blurred and are nebulous... It's one of those deals where one would have difficulty making determination from within, but looking at the hemisphere as a whole lends more insights. It's causing gradient and middle tropospheric winds to be anomalously sloped and fast, respectively of those two metrics. It's causing embedded event morphologies.. such as shearing and cyclonic translation speeds. Unclear whether those effect precipitation totals ( and none of that pertains specifically to ptype in winters in case, either ). Knowing what all that means... the "warm blobs" in the Pacific are - quite intuitively - a partial result of HC expansion into the lower middle latitudes, as this would impose greater moments of lowering SS stressing and "pooling" would be seem concomitant. In fairness, that's intuitive - I have a raft of papers/links .. it may be stated in one of those. It also may be evidentiary in how/why ENSO's forcing on the atmosphere is becoming less coherent, year to year. Last winter ... NCEP noted that it took almost until mid February before the atmosphere demonstrated that it was really coupled(ing) up with the ENSO and actually reflecting that the ENSO was influencing. That's pretty much spring beneath the 35th parallel for the N.H already. This left very little time for ENSO to mean much to more mid latitude winter, and it probably ultimately didn't. ( yet, folks are cobbling together all these expectations of modestly warm ENSO now mmm good luck, we'll see). Going back further, the historically warm EL Nino from several years back, was also notably less demonstratively impacting known focus regions around the World,... relative to what previous moderate to strong warm ENSO events appeared causally link-able in priors. ...etc... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 LOL how the pendulum swings around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Some real jaded posts today. Not sure what got into people. On a more positive note, only 34 very short days until the sun angle starts increasing. Yeah. Winter is done before it begins I think. Congrats...you were hoping for a torch/snowless winter. Savior the model runs today that show the AK pig. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well... ur not far off. I've been discussing this at length in various threads around the weather -related social media, that the Hadley Cell ( semi permanent global feature the girdles the globe to approximately 30 N and S of Equator in previous decades prior to 2000 ) has been notably and empirically expanding, and is causing storm tracks to shit N ( among other aspects ..) This is papered and peer reviewed assessment work - it's not just me conjecturing from a relative position of weather education and speculation arts - which admittedly, I'm talented in that capacity. Hahaha. Seriously, part of the Hadely Cell expansion is that it's boundary with the mid latitudes is not readily identifiable.. as in, aligning along some particular isohypses. It's determined fluid mechanically and thermodynamic from location to location. One possible clue is that the flow inside the Hadley tends to take on more easterly component. But overall, the boundaries are blurred and are nebulous... It's one of those deals where one would have difficulty making determination from within, but looking at the hemisphere as a whole lends more insights. It's causing gradient and middle tropospheric winds to be anomalously sloped and fast, respectively of those two metrics. It's causing embedded event morphologies.. such as shearing and cyclonic translation speeds. Unclear whether those effect precipitation totals ( and none of that pertains specifically to ptype in winters in case, either ). Knowing what all that means... the "warm blobs" in the Pacific are - quite intuitively - a partial result of HC expansion into the lower middle latitudes, as this would impose greater moments of lowering SS stressing and "pooling" would be seem concomitant. In fairness, that's intuitive - I have a raft of papers/links .. it may be stated in one of those. It also may be evidentiary in how/why ENSO's forcing on the atmosphere is becoming less coherent, year to year. Last winter ... NCEP noted that it took almost until mid February before the atmosphere demonstrated that it was really coupled(ing) up with the ENSO and actually reflecting that the ENSO was influencing. That's pretty much spring beneath the 35th parallel for the N.H already. This left very little time for ENSO to mean much to more mid latitude winter, and it probably ultimately didn't. ( yet, folks are cobbling together all these expectations of modestly warm ENSO now mmm good luck, we'll see). Going back further, the historically warm EL Nino from several years back, was also notably less demonstratively impacting known focus regions around the World,... relative to what previous moderate to strong warm ENSO events appeared causally link-able in priors. ...etc... This is exactly why I've been pondering the idea of what a warmer climate may mean, particularly since the oceans act as heat sinks and they get the brunt of it first. You can also see this with rising humidity levels/dew points and larger slower moving storms that dump much more precipitation. Bigger snowstorms and bigger rainstorms, and in general greater extremes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: LOL how the pendulum swings around here. I think it's a curiosity and point of interest that there is a "pendulum" at all ... Does this shit like ...fill some void for people? And suppose that is true, is it a numbers game, where millions of people having access so it's like we're "filtering" over the crucible of time and burning away all other users ...leaving this purified group of people that have the same void and so merely can related to one another ? Probably, in some - at least - partial sense that is true. Buut that kind of insight - for some reason - incenses and gets people pissy so... whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Bring on the pig.... we’re due for a real ratter in SNE. Maybe we can get some nice weather out of it and transition into some Morch 12’ like weather. Last winter ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah. Winter is done before it begins I think. Congrats...you were hoping for a torch/snowless winter. Savior the model runs today that show the AK pig. How soon they forget that some of our greatest winters began after January 20th..... which is becoming more like the new norm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think it's a curiosity and point of interest that there is a "pendulum" at all ... Does this shit like ...fill some void for people? And suppose that is true, is it a numbers game, where millions of people having access, you are likely to "filter" through the crucible of time and burn away all other users ...leaving this purified group of people that have the same void and so merely can related to one another ? Probably, but that kind of insight - for some reason - incenses and gets people pissy so... whatever. Psychologically speaking, it must be an escape for them, sort of like sports. Some people seem to emotionally seesaw based on the results of their favorite sports teams too. It's an escape from the reality that bombards them on a daily basis. This becomes their support group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah. Winter is done before it begins I think. Congrats...you were hoping for a torch/snowless winter. Savior the model runs today that show the AK pig. And they’re off. Metfan is slow out of gate 4. 1 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Psychologically speaking, it must be an escape for them, sort of like sports. Some people seem to emotionally seesaw based on the results of their favorite sports teams too. It's an escape from the reality that bombards them on a daily basis. This becomes their support group. Not to derail/digress too deeply ...we should keep this brief, but - it's not a knock on anyone in here. It's a phenomenon endemic to increasingly psychotropic societies, and the advent of all these hyper-stimulating com technologies - we're literally living through an evolutionary experiment by subsuming societies ( above tribal bucket and lever ilks ) with these stimulation. You get this in any social-media platform. Think about rats in a maze. Lab techs poke and prod and do shit to them, then take notes on clipboards. Haha. It's a metaphor. Anyway, at no point spanning human history ...talking pre and post paleolithic right up through the advent of fire and wheels ... did Humans evolve through what they are since the Industrial Revolution. Down around Va Beach, there's a radio station ... hilarious, but every Tuesday at 3 pm, they have a three hour rush-hour program called, "Facebook Fights" - oh man... deliciously tedious and hysterically petty. It's pretty fantastic anthropology ... but, again, it's more suited to OT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah. Winter is done before it begins I think. Congrats...you were hoping for a torch/snowless winter. Savior the model runs today that show the AK pig. We'll see what 12z brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Not to derail/digress too deeply ...we should keep this brief, but - it's not a knock on anyone in here. It's phenomenon with a psychotropic society and advent of these comms technologies - we're literally living through an evolutionary experiment in societies above tribal bucket and lever ilks. At not point in Human history ...talking paleolithic through the advent of fire and wheels ... did Humans evolve through what they are since the Industrial Revolution. It's pretty fantastic anthropology ... but, again, it's more suited to OT. Indeed and because of the technologically sophisticated society we exist in, it begins very early, even before children reach school age. It really is a kind of experiment, where you see brain development change because of the impact of technology on young minds. What this means for the future (we are seeing the results already) should probably be left to OT.... or the climate change forum, which seems to be a bucket for various philosophical and metaphysical discussions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 I think most in here are kidding around this morning about the overnight runs. There are a few on here that get the nervous nellies whenever the AK vortex peeks in in the extended, but most of us aren’t really swayed by a bad run or two in the d10+ in November. So let’s not get too Freudian this morning. It’s all in fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to derail/digress too deeply ...we should keep this brief, but - it's not a knock on anyone in here. It's a phenomenon endemic to increasingly psychotropic societies, and the advent of all these hyper-stimulating com technologies - we're literally living through an evolutionary experiment by subsuming societies ( above tribal bucket and lever ilks ) with these stimulation. You get this in any social-media platform. Think about rats in a maze. Lab techs poke and prod and do shit to them, then take notes on clipboards. Haha. It's a metaphor. Anyway, at no point spanning human history ...talking pre and post paleolithic right up through the advent of fire and wheels ... did Humans evolve through what they are since the Industrial Revolution. Down around Va Beach, there's a radio station ... hilarious, but every Tuesday at 3 pm, they have a three hour rush-hour program called, "Facebook Fights" - oh man... deliciously tedious and hysterically petty. It's pretty fantastic anthropology ... but, again, it's more suited to OT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 The last couple of runs of the NAM look rather icy to me in the low levels. This is a rare set up...getting a coastal low to spit possible glazing into the tree canopies and car tops. Others brought this up, but it really makes you wonder about the 1926 ( 29?) coastal storm that was pretty much a thrashing Nor'easter of ZR.. It was no joke ZR, too... Not this 31.8 F lose half to to drippy gelling rates... And, the rain was perfectly ratio'ed in fall rates relative to refreezing, such that - guessing from anecdotal accounts - 90+% efficiency accretion took place spanning like two and half days. 28 F light to moderate ZR like always ... Man... I loathe ice-storms. I really don't envy any location suffering their wrath. I don't find them strangely amusing or "fun" when they clip the power. I find them to be a pain in the ass and strangely "un"amusing and unfun. To each his own... BUT, in the spirit of my own humanity and thus, hypocrisy, something like that might just be absurd enough to make one wonder what that looks like as a first hand account. This thing doesn't have any chance of being like that... no. But, it does show that even though icing in coastal storms tends to be narrower/limited to bands along transition zones, there are some circumstances where this differs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 3 hours ago, moneypitmike said: You think that's long - you're an example of what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The last couple of runs of the NAM look rather icy to me in the low levels. This is a rare set up...getting a coastal low to spit possible glazing into the tree canopies and car tops. Others brought this up, but it really makes you wonder about the 1926 ( 29?) coastal storm that was pretty much a thrashing Nor'easter of ZR.. It was no joke ZR, too... Not this 31.8 F lose half to to drippy gelling rates... And, the rain was perfectly ratio'ed in fall rates relative to refreezing, such that - guessing from anecdotal accounts - 90+% efficiency accretion took place spanning like two and half days. 28 F light to moderate ZR like always ... Man... I loathe ice-storms. I really don't envy any location suffering their wrath. I don't find them strangely amusing or "fun" when they clip the power. I find them to be a pain in the ass and strangely "un"amusing and unfun. To each his own... BUT, in the spirit of my own humanity and thus, hypocrisy, something like that might just be absurd enough to make one wonder what that looks like as a first hand account. This thing doesn't have any chance of being like that... no. But, it does show that even though icing in coastal storms tends to be narrower/limited to bands along transition zones, there are some circumstances where this differs. 1921 is the year you're looking for. And yeah, it was actually quite windy in that ice storm. It was almost like the dec 2008 ice storm except 4-7F colder across the board so the coastline got big ice as well...not the cape but BOS did and down to the south facing shoreline where a N and NE wind is off land. The 1921 storm did start as snow too, so there was a few inches of snow underneath the ice which prob made it a bigger pain for cleaning the old walkways and roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Lol worst morning of posts in years. Hook line sinker with Tip the biggest fish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 we want 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol worst morning of posts in years. Hook line sinker with Tip the biggest fish. Holy crap you ain’t kidding...my thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 A few posters are crying in their rooms after Will sent them over the edge this morning.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You think that's long - you're an example of what it means. I was laughing at the irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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