November 2019 discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

November departures so far:

ORH: -6.6

PVD: -6.0

MHT: -6.2

CON: -6.3

BDL: -4.8

 

 

BOS: -3.5......lol

 

Could use that in Dec instead, so hopefully it continues.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He was writing a novel and I recall him asking you to collaborate. 

Oh that.  I forgot.  Right.  No. I didn't get involved in anything he was working on - you mean James from Cape Cod? 

Nah, my thing began years ago... I put it down for  along while. Few years actually.  Then suffered a bout of " professional ostracizing, " ( heh ) and used the year off to really focus and finish it up.  So it is what it is...

But as far as James, I vaguely do recall now him asking me but nothing ever came of it. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hingham until yesterday -5.9. Yesterday might be near 0 departure, but monthly still probably near -5.5 or so. Oh Logan. 

 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Those numbers are harder to get to then their scalar values might immediately suggest, too ( I know you know that...just sayn' ) 

Make me wonder how we could also not have any snow - hahaha.   Man, that's beautiful -

Yep...to put ORH into context historically....average temperature for the first half of the month ranking (first half = Nov 1-15)

 

1976.....34.2 (!!!)

2019.....36.2

1933.....36.4

1962.....37.2

1992.....37.4

1986.....37.5

1921.....37.8

1904.....37.8

 

For anyone well-versed in history, I probably do not need to tell them that 1976-1977, 1933-1934, 1962-1963, 1986-1987, and 1992-1993 were a pretty weenie-ish set of winters. So the extreme cold for first half of November is a good foreshadowing. Nevermind the 1921 year showing up too.....most epic ice storm probably in SNE records and it occurred later that month in November.

 

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Could use that in Dec instead, so hopefully it continues.

Law of averages with a touch of climate change says December is +7ish and knowing the ways thing have been we will some how sneak in a warning event that melts the next day...

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He was writing a novel and I recall him asking you to collaborate. 

It was me.

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

FWIW, MVL may be a tick or two on the weenie side. I'm not there, but I have noticed how cool it can be at times. 

 

https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/kmvl?days=364#Data

Yeah, and there are a lot of PWS stations around here that are all over the place too.  The spot I use closest to me along the Stowe Country Club golf course actually seems to run a tick colder than MVL, especially at night.  There are all sorts of little pockets.

The departures from normal almost mirror MPV exactly though, so the departures seem to be in line with their 30-year normals. 

I've always gone by the departures to see if something seems out of whack... like BTV always being +2 from the other stations.

The BTV/MVL/MPV triangle though all fit their long term departure patterns where MVL/MPV are almost identical, and then BTV is a degree or two warmer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yep...to put ORH into context historically....average temperature for the first half of the month ranking (first half = Nov 1-15)

 

1976.....34.2 (!!!)

2019.....36.2

1933.....36.4

1962.....37.2

1992.....37.4

1986.....37.5

1921.....37.8

1904.....37.8

 

For anyone well-versed in history, I probably do not need to tell them that 1976-1977, 1933-1934, 1962-1963, 1986-1987, and 1992-1993 were a pretty weenie-ish set of winters. So the extreme cold for first half of November is a good foreshadowing. Nevermind the 1921 year showing up too.....most epic ice storm probably in SNE records and it occurred later that month in November.

 

How was 1904?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

For anyone well-versed in history, I probably do not need to tell them that 1976-1977, 1933-1934, 1962-1963, 1986-1987, and 1992-1993 were a pretty weenie-ish set of winters. So the extreme cold for first half of November is a good foreshadowing. Nevermind the 1921 year showing up too.....most epic ice storm probably in SNE records and it occurred later that month in November.

 

Yeah, preaching to the choir for me ... I don't think this winter is going to be very dictated/forced by ENSO ... I think the multi-decadal polarward index, which is in descent and I believe flipped negative, probably is more evidenced at more times than not, as being weighty in influence/proxy on the flow constructs.  More N/stream ..buuuuuuut, 

there's that expanded HC stuff that is presently papered/scienced and gathering recognition to contend with. Namely, that GW shit ain't going away, and the expanded tropical/sub-tropical belt into the lower Ferrel Cell latitudes, and the concomitant speeding up the flow/gradient saturation stuff... We'll just have to cross those bridges as the they come.  I'm not sure what the means to be honest. I don't think it means "no" or even lower snow... I suspect - intuitively - it more effects the style of delivery. Maybe fast events ...shearing and WAA events.. "nickle and dime" accounting... Icers?   ...things of that nature, but perhaps doing okay in the aggregate.   Bombs are still possible but the days of cutting them off and Fuki Wara S of ISP may be absent.  ....  OR, yup - we have to be open to the possibility that the flow speed/gradient might mitigate, too.  A matter of amounts in that case. 

Anyway, the cold early Novie and the statistical relationship you bring up, strikes me as consistent with those years that had more -EPO (NAO) type tendencies.  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How was1904?

Brutally cold winter and average snow (around 45" at BOS and 65" at ORH IIRC)

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, and there are a lot of PWS stations around here that are all over the place too.  The spot I use closest to me along the Stowe Country Club golf course actually seems to run a tick colder than MVL, especially at night.  There are all sorts of little pockets.

The departures from normal almost mirror MPV exactly though, so the departures seem to be in line with their 30-year normals.

Yeah could be...was just noting what this has (it's good, but not gospel). Golf courses are usually big weenie radiators too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Scott are you talking about anywhere besides Berks over to CNE/NNE

me to Ray looks cooked on guidance after midnite and has been looking progressively milder each day . Few days ago I saw some upper 20’s Sunday nite now it looks like rising from 33 to 37 Sunday nite 

I have zero interest in this.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was me.

He asked me as well... Did you help the guy ? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, preaching to the choir for me ... I don't think this winter is going to be very dictated/forced by ENSO ... I think the multi-decadal polarward index, which is in descent and I believe flipped negative, probably is more evidenced at more times than not, as being weighty in influence/proxy on the flow constructs.  More N/stream ..buuuuuuut, 

there's that expanded HC stuff that is presently papered/scienced and gathering recognition to contend with. Namely, that GW shit ain't going away, and the expanded tropical/sub-tropical belt into the lower Ferrel Cell latitudes, and the concomitant speeding up the flow/gradient saturation stuff... We'll just have to cross those bridges as the they come.  I'm not sure what the means to be honest. I don't think it means "no" or even lower snow... I suspect - intuitively - it more effects the style of delivery. Maybe fast events ...shearing and WAA events.. "nickle and dime" accounting... Icers?   ...things of that nature, but perhaps doing okay in the aggregate.   Bombs are still possible but the days of cutting them off and Fuki Wara S of ISP may be absent.  ....  OR, yup - we have to be open to the possibility that the flow speed/gradient might mitigate, too.  A matter of amounts in that case. 

Anyway, the cold early Novie and the statistical relationship you bring up, strikes me as consistent with those years that had more -EPO (NAO) type tendencies.  

I think the EPO is actually the most influential index for us....its PNA for the mid atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

He asked me as well... Did you help the guy ? 

Okay. He asked me a few times....I just read some of it and offered some feedback. Nothing much..

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the EPO ia a actually the most influential index for us....its PNA for the mid atlantic.

For snow? We PNA. EPO can screw us with cutters. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

For snow? We PNA. EPO can screw us with cutters. 

I meant for overall wintery appeal.

[CoastalWx]

The EPO certainly is good to have on our side, but it needs to be places exactly right. I can sit back and be at ease usually with a +PNA. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant for overall wintery appeal.

I'll still go with a +PNA. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

For snow? We PNA. EPO can screw us with cutters. 

I know all about the cutter perils of the EPO LOL...wrote alot about that in the review of last season's outlook hahaha

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'll still go with a +PNA. 

I disagree. +EPO AK pig is a deathknell.

You are wrong imo.

[CoastalWx]

A -EPO can offer very cold air, but also cutter risk. A +PNA might not have brutal cold depending on amplitude (although Feb 15 did), but it usually assures BN temps and AN snow. 

[ORH_wxman]

We actually have a slightly inverse correlation with the PNA and temps...it's pretty insignificant, but our correlation to the PNA is something like -0.1

[ORH_wxman]

I agree the big +PNA is the best for big storm potential.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree. +EPO AK pig is a deathknell.

You are wrong imo.

I guess I am not following. I thought you are arguing for snow?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh that.  I forgot.  Right.  No. I didn't get involved in anything he was working on - you mean James from Cape Cod? 

Nah, my thing began years ago... I put it down for  along while. Few years actually.  Then suffered a bout of " professional ostracizing, " ( heh ) and used the year off to really focus and finish it up.  So it is what it is...

But as far as James, I vaguely do recall now him asking me but nothing ever came of it. 

Must be a grueling process to write even for those where it comes natural. Too many distractions unless you shack up in a moose cabin for a year with no technological distractions floating around. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

For big snow...give me a west coast ridge...for a chance, block the PAC jet.

A bad EPO is often a non starter.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah could be...was just noting what this has (it's good, but not gospel). Golf courses are usually big weenie radiators too. 

Yeah I agree those MADIS numbers are on the cool side.... but over the last 365 days it looks like there's been almost zero drift... just very stable.  I want to see it back 2-3 years if that was possible for when they moved the station.  And I do know around here there are a lot of PWS and other established sites that don't have nearly the diurnal ranges of that frozen air field.  It's also literally the last place around here that the fog burns off in the morning. 

And yeah, speaking of golf courses...that site about a few hundred yards from me at the bottom of the Golf Course hit 3F last night when MVL was 8F. 

This is the PWS closest to the airport too... I've got this on my bookmark to check too.  9F last night to MVL's 8F.  Right now they are both 19F.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVTMORRI12

It definitely could be a degree cool or something but nothing that really stands out locally... certainly not like a "yup that's wrong" type look.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah I agree those MADIS numbers are on the cool side.... but over the last 365 days it looks like there's been almost zero drift... just very stable.  I want to see it back 2-3 years if that was possible for when they moved the station.  And I do know around here there are a lot of PWS and other established sites that don't have nearly the diurnal ranges of that frozen air field.  It's also literally the last place around here that the fog burns off in the morning. 

And yeah, speaking of golf courses...that site about a few hundred yards from me at the bottom of the Golf Course hit 3F last night when MVL was 8F. 

This is the PWS closest to the airport too... I've got this on my bookmark to check too.  9F last night to MVL's 8F.  Right now they are both 19F.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVTMORRI12

If you play with the URL, you can go back. It's bee steady for last 3 years, but had a few brief issues. When did they move it? 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For big snow...give me a west coast ridge...for a chance, block the PAC jet.

A bad EPO is often a non starter.

Oh you mean for an overall index in general? Ahh ok. Yeah +EPO is usually not good at all. I see what you are saying. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess I am not following. I thought you are arguing for snow?

It depends on what you are looking for. PNA for a high ceiling, but I think a neg EPO is best insurance against a rat. Make sense?