CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 51 minutes ago, SophieG said: hopefully everyone sees it now. models are a great tool, but you have to look at the "weather" too...things seem to average out over time, sans the big anomalies. Everyone is data driven now, sometimes it really is that simple. The PNA goes negative for about 3 days next week. That’s cute you quoted something from 11/10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 58 minutes ago, SophieG said: hopefully everyone sees it now. models are a great tool, but you have to look at the "weather" too...things seem to average out over time, sans the big anomalies. Everyone is data driven now, sometimes it really is that simple. Ah, the “weather”. Just gotta have that ‘feeling’, that’s all. Toss the data, make forecasting great again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Idk how valuable this info is to you guys up north, but it's currently a mix of rain and sleet down here in NYC metro 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Sleeting here in NYC to let you guys know 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Sleeting here in NYC to let you guys know Seems like a good sign. Depending upon the model you believe they show almost everything falling from the sky: from the Catskills up to here when it starts in the early morning hours. Things are pretty isothermal under the advancing band it seems and not far from 0C. Still only high clouds here have allowed most rural areas (away from inferno KALB) to fall into the 25-30 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 NWS BTV posted these on social this evening.... sunny clear day with some cirrus moving in late ahead of the system. The Vermont side of the lake has quite the view towards the Adirondack high country. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: From a few storms we’ve had to track so far, my biggest concern is the lack of consistency and it seems like if 1 models shift, they all do. I feel like we used to see more stepwise shifts vs windshield wiper flips back and forth. And the more interesting part to me is that all the models seem to be ingesting the same data that is causing some big swings. Like all the sudden at 18z the models yesterday went apeshit amped up...but it’s not like just the NAM did it or something. They all did and the Euro was probably the worst of them all shoving 1-2” QPF to Canada. So they initialized something that made them go nuts for a couple runs. Then 12 hours later initialized something that made them go “oh whoops, back to the starting point.” Going to be a long winter of models, ha. I feel like they all just follow each other around, when in the past it would be a bigger spread but those models would be more consistent in their respective camps....if that makes sense. Like the Euro or GFS or NAM would disagree in a big way and hold that position for several runs. Now they all flip back and forth with whatever data they initialize with. That's very true and I agree completely. I remember we used to see models establish in 2-3 camps, they'd persist for several runs, then one caved to the other and we'd have some sort of consensus - most of my discussions would be something along the lines of "the NAM caved to the Euro". Now over the last couple seasons it seems like we get consensus much faster (4-5 days out even) and then lose it several times as the models become much more sensitive to variations in data. I'm sure we'll adapt and become less trusting with time, but it definitely takes some getting used to for forecasting. My unscientific hunch from a data science perspective is that higher resolution and more frequent panels is making things more sensitive and compounding errors, but I don't have anything to back that up. Has more sampling data been added over the last couple of years? That could explain things as well to an extent, but I don't believe there have been expansions? Take it all with a grain of salt because I don't really know the details of how models work behind the scenes, but interesting to think about for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 16 minutes ago, Logan11 said: Seems like a good sign. Depending upon the model you believe they show almost everything falling from the sky: from the Catskills up to here when it starts in the early morning hours. Things are pretty isothermal under the advancing band it seems and not far from 0C. Still only high clouds here have allowed most rural areas (away from inferno KALB) to fall into the 25-30 range. Seems like a sign that models were to far NW with there track and are still adjusting SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: No chance . If anything flash crashes to aggregates in Savoy in A.M I’ll head to monads . Somewhere between Mount Kearsarge , Temple mountain and Grantham area. All hour drive I’ll take a drive to Monads or Savoy if it actually looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’ll take a drive to Monads or Savoy if it actually looks promising. I think further NW is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I think further NW is better I think N Conway NH to Rangely ME are the only real favorable places to be. It wouldn't surprise me to see no accumulations S of Lakes Region of NH. This storm will be too far NE before the necessary combination dynamics come together. 850 temps on the mesos don't get there until the heaviest precipitation is cruising out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d stay out of SE CT at any cost I think he was talking about North Haven. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Radarscope pinging alot of mixed precip in sw ct 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think N Conway NH to Rangely ME are the only real favorable places to be. It wouldn't surprise me to see no accumulations S of Lakes Region of NH. This storm will be too far NE before the necessary combination dynamics come together. 850 temps on the mesos don't get there until the heaviest precipitation is cruising out of here. While I think the clown maps are mostly a joke, they can be instructive for trends I think. And the fact that the bigger snow totals don't start popping until it's in the CAR CWA tell me we may have mixing issues in the GYX area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Seems like a sign that models were to far NW with there track and are still adjusting SE. Just like that boom back Nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Just like that boom back Nw I haven't seen anything go back NW tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: While I think the clown maps are mostly a joke, they can be instructive for trends I think. And the fact that the bigger snow totals don't start popping until it's in the CAR CWA tell me we may have mixing issues in the GYX area. Today's trends have not been favorable in track, precipitation, mid-level temps and unrealistic weenie enthusiasm. Sleet in NYC right now does not equate to better chance of anyone is SNE seeing a flip to snow in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 GFS seems to be trying to make it a more compact system. Given that the track difference between it and the Euro is not that large, the placement of mid level forcing sure is wildly different. Euro is practically in Canada, GFS hugs just inland from the coast. I'd think a blend of that is closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Today's trends have not been favorable in track, precipitation, mid-level temps and unrealistic weenie enthusiasm. Sleet in NYC right now does not equate to better chance of anyone is SNE seeing a flip to snow in the morning. It does mean a larger area of advisories for trace freezing rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 That’s a qpf bomb tomorrow afternoon in EMA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I haven't seen anything go back NW tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Light rain/sleet mix here in Enfield 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Definitely a few flakes mixed in as well with the sleet/ rain and 36.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Snow sleet here, I know its going to flip but its nice to sit in front of the wood stove and see snow. better days to come this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Euro got a little stronger in the mid levels. It's a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 45 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Snow sleet here, I know its going to flip but its nice to sit in front of the wood stove and see snow. better days to come this year. Out here it's freezing rain and sleet, 31. Yet to the south from Binghamton east across to the Catskills it's snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Heavy rain, 34.3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 35.5/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 HRRR and the 6z NAM interesting for later on.. quick flip to end? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 6 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think N Conway NH to Rangely ME are the only real favorable places to be. It wouldn't surprise me to see no accumulations S of Lakes Region of NH. This storm will be too far NE before the necessary combination dynamics come together. 850 temps on the mesos don't get there until the heaviest precipitation is cruising out of here. North Conway is toast imo i want some western longitude on this one . someone NW of Albany to Stratton/Killington looks best but 2 far for me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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