Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,238
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Debbiewx
    Newest Member
    Debbiewx
    Joined

November 2019 discussion


weathafella

Recommended Posts

  On 11/23/2019 at 3:50 PM, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

I think at your elevation you’ll do much better. I’d expect a good 8-12” at Searsburg Pass.

Expand  

That's aggressive with modeled warm nose and being that far south and east near the VT/MA line. It would really have to rip once all levels cooled. Definitely a tricky forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
  On 11/23/2019 at 4:35 PM, backedgeapproaching said:

That's aggressive with modeled warm nose and being that far south and east near the VT/MA line. It would really have to rip once all levels cooled. Definitely a tricky forecast.

Expand  

Yeah I don’t like all the Swiss cheese looking thermal layers... it’s so marginal that just about any p-type seems possible if the models are off in an area by 0.5C even.

Its very similar to that event we thought we were slam dunk for 8-12” and got the QPF but only had 4-6” on 1.0” water... just a frozen dense white substance of very small flake snow and sleet with some ZR for good measure. 

I could see something similar where there’s a good frozen QPF bomb but ratios are total garbage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 11/23/2019 at 4:34 PM, powderfreak said:

I’ve found it to be pretty decent in this early season mayhem.  But anyway, definite SE tick in precip across the 12z suite so far.  

Very narrow area of heavy snows most likely.

Expand  

I’ve just seen it bounce around and also very mild, but then again I haven’t been using it for snow. Some SE ticks so far which perhaps means you are more on the line. It’s close. Kind of a tight little bugger, but mid levels are decent. You probably can’t afford another tick SE however. HREF looks decent for Mitch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 11/23/2019 at 4:50 PM, moneypitmike said:

We toss.  If that map were to play out, DIT, INS, and I would go apeshit in disgust.

 

Expand  

I've seen a  different RGEM  snow map where most of that heavy snow in the lower elevations of the HV and CV is not there. That map seems to fail to understand how tough that would be at those low elevations.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 11/23/2019 at 4:57 PM, Logan11 said:

I've seen a  different RGEM  snow map where most of that heavy snow in the lower elevations of the HV and CV is not there. That map seems to fail to understand how tough that would be at those low elevations.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Expand  

Yeah, that other map is not happening, this one is more realistic. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow is this a hard storm to predict for my hood for tomorrow.   So marginal and every run and every model is slightly different.  Almost impossible to predict sensible hourly weather for my elevation for this storm.  Below freezing to start probably snow.  Then going over to a mix.  Perhaps moderate rain with catpaws and parachutes falling but not sticking.  Honestly I have no idea other than its going to be a cold stormy day.  Glad I have a sunroom with a 180 glass view over my property.  Good day to be sit back on the laptop in the easy chair with the laptop and watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...