CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 At least BDL departures aren't that far off from KBOS. The torch twins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Some guidance looks to end as some wet flakes late tomorrow aftn for ORH hills...maybe even for Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, it's a bit disappointing we couldn't get more out of it, but I'm not losing sleep over it. As cool as last November snow was, it didn't last long and December had just about nothing to show. Yeah, I’m not bothered much. Bring it in Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 If you were gonna ski tomorrow would you do Loon, Killington, or make the haul to Sugarbush on limited terrain because the other two have too much of a mixing risk? My gut says Loon and K will be okay but the mix line flirts too closely to both of them for my taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 minute ago, SR Airglow said: If you were gonna ski tomorrow would you do Loon, Killington, or make the haul to Sugarbush on limited terrain because the other two have too much of a mixing risk? My gut says Loon and K will be okay but the mix line flirts too closely to both of them for my taste. Kmart is prob safer than Loon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kmart is prob safer than Loon. That was my gut feel as well, Loon probably has the higher ceiling but also a far lower floor. Should be a fun one regardless, could be 55* and raining so I’ll take what I can get in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, SR Airglow said: That was my gut feel as well, Loon probably has the higher ceiling but also a far lower floor. Should be a fun one regardless, could be 55* and raining so I’ll take what I can get in November. If you don't have to make a decision until tonight, you could see another full round of guidance (plus 18z runs) to see if there is a tick in either direction. If it ticks SE then obviously Loon is the choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Loon is probably ok if the track holds. Gets close, but I think they’re alright. I’m biased since it’s so easy to get to. If they get a pellet or two, it’s probably brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Loon might even dryslot. More and more like a PF and Jspin jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If you don't have to make a decision until tonight, you could see another full round of guidance (plus 18z runs) to see if there is a tick in either direction. If it ticks SE then obviously Loon is the choice. Probably will make the final call tomorrow morning on 93N, but would like to have some idea nailed down tonight, definitely still have some time though as you said for this to go either way. 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Loon is probably ok if the track holds. Gets close, but I think they’re alright. I’m biased since it’s so easy to get to. If they get a pellet or two, it’s probably brief. Yup, closest mountain to Boston that's what I would consider a large resort (2k+ of vert) with great snowmaking, decent natural, and some pretty fun terrain. Unfortunately that means it's often a gongshow on busy weekends, but it's still a great time if you know the place and know where to not go. Guess we'll see what happens over the next couple of runs, too bad Sugarbush has so little open as they'd be the winner here. They generally are pretty aggressive opening things on natural but probably need another storm or two first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Brian gets his 33F rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 12z NAM looks like it is tickling back SE a bit this run but the 06z run was mega-zonked so that isn't a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Enjoy my man , kid will tear up your lawn some more Glad I had the snowblower tuned up early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Actually fairly sizable tick SE on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z NAM looks like it is tickling back SE a bit this run but the 06z run was mega-zonked so that isn't a shock. HRRR-X for 36 hours wasn’t biting. Run to run swings have been insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: HRRR-X for 36 hours wasn’t biting. Run to run swings have been insane. Extended hrrr is pretty unstable anyways. I still feel good where you are, but you may want to look at the SPC HREF in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 RGEM went south. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Three runs in a row of the NAM and 3K NAM with >6" here. The question as always is will 1000' elevation be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Tracks low from Montauk, right up the canal. Model mayhem. Gonna be a fun one to watch. Narrow band of fun. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Three runs in a row of the NAM and 3K NAM with >6" here. The question as always is will 1000' elevation be enough. Or in my case, will 225’ be enough lol. I’m thinking you’re in a pretty good place. Just gotta get the strong dynamics above you and boom. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowgeek said: Or in my case, will 225’ be enough lol. I’m thinking you’re in a pretty good place. Just gotta get the strong dynamics above you and boom. . In these kind of situations so often NWS ALY will fall back on 1500' being the magic # for significant elevational snows. I'm braced for that this afternoon when they finally decide to go out on a limb with accumulations. But yeah plenty of evidence that 1k feet might still do it with dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Crap-o-rama looks to be en route here tomorrow. No cold high to the north, FTL. A month from now you can get away without a cold high to the north more often, but this early in the season it can be tough even here to get a good snowstorm without it unless if midlevel forcing is enough to dynamically flip things to snow. NAM is warm between 800-900 mb and Euro too although I can't see soundings from it. HRRR looks like isothermal pasting but it's still beyond it's useful range. Freezing rain to wet snow is what I think here, 2-4". Hopefully the freezing rain won't accrete too much, but with heavy rain and surface temperatures at or just barely below freezing I don't think it'll be too bad as the water will drip off before it can freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said: Crap-o-rama looks to be en route here tomorrow. No cold high to the north, FTL. A month from now you can get away without a cold high to the north more often, but this early in the season it can be tough even here to get a good snowstorm without it unless if midlevel forcing is enough to dynamically flip things to snow. NAM is warm between 800-900 mb and Euro too although I can't see soundings from it. HRRR looks like isothermal pasting but it's still beyond it's useful range. Freezing rain to wet snow is what I think here, 2-4". Hopefully the freezing rain won't accrete too much, but with heavy rain and surface temperatures at or just barely below freezing I don't think it'll be too bad as the water will drip off before it can freeze. I think at your elevation you’ll do much better. I’d expect a good 8-12” at Searsburg Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said: Crap-o-rama looks to be en route here tomorrow. No cold high to the north, FTL. A month from now you can get away without a cold high to the north more often, but this early in the season it can be tough even here to get a good snowstorm without it unless if midlevel forcing is enough to dynamically flip things to snow. NAM is warm between 800-900 mb and Euro too although I can't see soundings from it. HRRR looks like isothermal pasting but it's still beyond it's useful range. Freezing rain to wet snow is what I think here, 2-4". Hopefully the freezing rain won't accrete too much, but with heavy rain and surface temperatures at or just barely below freezing I don't think it'll be too bad as the water will drip off before it can freeze. You could get pounded for awhile though with the dynamics and that elevation, afternoon mostly when the column can cool rapidly. Before that yes more of an icy variety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said: Crap-o-rama looks to be en route here tomorrow. No cold high to the north, FTL. A month from now you can get away without a cold high to the north more often, but this early in the season it can be tough even here to get a good snowstorm without it unless if midlevel forcing is enough to dynamically flip things to snow. NAM is warm between 800-900 mb and Euro too although I can't see soundings from it. HRRR looks like isothermal pasting but it's still beyond it's useful range. Freezing rain to wet snow is what I think here, 2-4". Hopefully the freezing rain won't accrete too much, but with heavy rain and surface temperatures at or just barely below freezing I don't think it'll be too bad as the water will drip off before it can freeze. At least you’ll take some trees down and lose power.. so you’ve got that 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 The 3Km NAM has a little 11" max just over the VT line from Mass so it's trying to reflect that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 MASH weather over TDay weekend...for those of us old enough to understand that reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 GFS showing the possibility for early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 I am in a LC mood for this one and hope it's mostly zr for the interior elevations. That'll teach 'em 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Extended hrrr is pretty unstable anyways. I still feel good where you are, but you may want to look at the SPC HREF in about an hour. I’ve found it to be pretty decent in this early season mayhem. But anyway, definite SE tick in precip across the 12z suite so far. Very narrow area of heavy snows most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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