November 2019 discussion

[EastonSN+]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just to touch quickly on a storm I got screwed on Royally was 93 Superstorm what a tough one to swallow in SE Mass when Atlanta is left w more snow than you after a change to heavy rain in evening and 3” of cement that I told my neighbor on vacation I would shovel . Literally 3” that required a axe.

Here in coastal SW CT ended up with 11.5 so ice encrusted I could walk on top and not sink into snow at all.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Here in coastal SW CT ended up with 11.5 so ice encrusted I could walk on top and not sink into snow at all.

Ya your BL temps benefited from longitude even if mid levels flipped . I would rather do 5 days in jail then go thru a storm like that stuck in such a location. Lol no brainer

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I know where the pna is located. My point is when the pac is mentioned, I always think we are discussing both the epo and pna domains...to an extent. So when Scooter says, “pac drives the bus” I assume it’s not just epo but the pna as well. 

'80s were loaded with +PNA too....so there's still plenty of times we get both and it doesn't work out. It's because in order to get a year like 2015 where we have a raging +NAO, you need that PNA ridge in the perfect spot...which it was for like a month save a brief reload where we got lucky anyway on Feb 7-9.

A decent NAO will allow us a lot more wiggle room...we won't be obsessing over the ridge placements. Take 2010-2011...we have all kinds of -PNA and neutral PNA, etc, etc....but that Davis Strait block allowed the wiggle room.

 

 

[Angus]

15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

My company just came to an agreement with Sudbury and Franklin for road forecasting. So I'll be regularly forecasting in Massachusetts going forward. Pretty cool. 

Cool. Live in town next to Sudbury. Interestingly, work right along masspike in Framingham, south Sudbury is frequently the battle ground between frozen and non-frozen precipitation in winter.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just to touch quickly on a storm I got screwed on Royally was 93 Superstorm what a tough one to swallow in SE Mass when Atlanta is left w more snow than you after a change to heavy rain in evening and 3” of cement that I told my neighbor on vacation I would shovel . Literally 3” that required a axe. Max depth was about 11 Prior to the rains. If only I had a car back then . Hideous that and December 92 was a serious shiat sandwich handed to KTAN when areas just W /NW got buried . Thank goodness I went with my dad that next day and we went to diamond hill (just a burial there in 92’)

Codfisherman is that you? Diamond Hill RI? I learned to ski there and at Pine Top

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

My company just came to an agreement with Sudbury and Franklin for road forecasting. So I'll be regularly forecasting in Massachusetts going forward. Pretty cool. 

Ooh tough tough area with the line often there

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Angus said:

Cool. Live in town next to Sudbury. Interestingly, work right along masspike in Framingham, south Sudbury is frequently the battle ground between frozen and non-frozen precipitation in winter.

Sudbury is def a good CAD spot...good rad spot too.

You go like 3-5 miles SE into Framingham and Natick and it can be totally different.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

would be nice to drop a few inches during the Pats blow out win over the cowgirls. 

Not sure rainfall amounts will be quite that high.

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ooh tough tough area with the line often there

Yeah, I'm sure it will be a challenge. I'll have to dig out some good coastal front papers/training for the other forecasters. 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yup.  But thankfully tomorrow is Saturday so late exit from my bed...7 more months but who’s counting.

You want to slow time? My brother told me his last 6 months seemed like a decade. Mine was abrupt. We will celebrate together after the deed is done. One on one dinner 

[Torch Tiger]

Real nice day out there, dews too. hopefully plenty more to come this winter. Zero complaints from anyone

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, I'm sure it will be a challenge. I'll have to dig out some good coastal front papers/training for the other forecasters. 

Hit those peeps up here who live there for some local input. My biggest peeve was wxforecasters who have no local,  I mean local as in neighborhoods, who had no clue. Everyone here knows the microclimates in their hood.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I know where the pna is located. My point is when the pac is mentioned, I always think we are discussing both the epo and pna domains...to an extent. So when Scooter says, “pac drives the bus” I assume it’s not just epo but the pna as well. 

I just mean more or less the area by AK for example. That is a region in the Pacific where winter can be correlated rather highly. If we have a large area of low heights from the Bering Sea to the coastline down into the NW US...you can close those shades no matter what. We’ll be on a CONUS wide Chinook. Only the ski areas out west will benefit. With the NAO, a  - NAO can help, but I think we obsess way too much with this index.  Even if it’s positive, we can be ok at our latitude with a sufficient Pacific. Sure you play with fire, but a +NAO isn’t as bad of a death sentence as a +EPO is with an ugly AK trough. Like any pattern, there are flavors where certain stereotypes don’t behave as traditional thoughts go. 07-08 said that maybe a -PNA isn’t so bad given a well placed dateline ridge and vortex to our northeast. Last year was a decent Pacific, but we were just a bit unlucky in SNE with wavelengths. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, I'm sure it will be a challenge. I'll have to dig out some good coastal front papers/training for the other forecasters. 

It will be nice to have your input too. Good spot for some challenges!

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'80s were loaded with +PNA too....so there's still plenty of times we get both and it doesn't work out. It's because in order to get a year like 2015 where we have a raging +NAO, you need that PNA ridge in the perfect spot...which it was for like a month save a brief reload where we got lucky anyway on Feb 7-9.

A decent NAO will allow us a lot more wiggle room...we won't be obsessing over the ridge placements. Take 2010-2011...we have all kinds of -PNA and neutral PNA, etc, etc....but that Davis Strait block allowed the wiggle room.

 

 

It was the dislodging of the cold by a massive EPO which provided the impetus for 15. During the week of the Jan 27 massive blizzard the EPO was positive,  then reloaded and the rest is our epic generational history. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I just mean more or less the area by AK for example. That is a region in the Pacific where winter can be correlated rather highly. If we have a large area of low heights from the Bering Sea to the coastline down into the NW US...you can close those shades no matter what. We’ll be on a CONUS wide Chinook. Only the ski areas out west will benefit. With the NAO, a  - NAO can help, but I think we obsess way too much with this index.  Even if it’s positive, we can be ok at our latitude with a sufficient Pacific. Sure you play with fire, but a +NAO isn’t as bad of a death sentence as a +EPO is with an ugly AK trough. Like any pattern, there are flavors where certain stereotypes don’t behave as traditional thoughts go. 07-08 said that maybe a -PNA isn’t so bad given a well placed dateline ridge and vortex to our northeast. Last year was a decent Pacific, but we were just a bit unlucky in SNE with wavelengths. 

I should note that this is for our region. When you get near NYC and south, it can get much more challenging with a +NAO. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I should note that this is for our region. When you get near NYC and south, it can get much more challenging with a +NAO. 

Interesting enough many of their biggest snows were as transition from neg nao to pos was happening.  Sometimes some , not you, get caught up in monthly indexes rather than those dailies. So many interesting nuances in dailies. 15 we were blessed with the hugely under valued transient blocking

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Didn't say perfect. Not dank at all, was only cloudy when I was out.  Better then 39F and mist.

It is a warm feel. Yesterday's sun was much better 

[CoastalWx]

Not going to lie, that deformation rain band on the NAM is rather frustrating. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not going to lie, that deformation rain band on the NAM is rather frustrating. 

I'll enjoy my my mid 30's cirrus day up here.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not going to lie, that deformation rain band on the NAM is rather frustrating. 

I’m sure this storm track /pattern will still be there when climo supports snow lol

just messin

The nam has been the leader bringing this south and consolidating its own goal posts from a deform in monads to about Pike for several runs

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not going to lie, that deformation rain band on the NAM is rather frustrating. 

Go with NMM

 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not going to lie, that deformation rain band on the NAM is rather frustrating. 

Can we do it at the end?

[dryslot]

Wasn't going to be much snow on that run its a furnace aloft.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ah, 33F deform rains after a historically cold Novie airmass. 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Go with NMM

 

That 700 track on the NAM. Gah...lol. Oh well. Maybe if a heavy band lasts the hills can flip, but 925-800 just seems too mild. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ah, 33F deform rains after a historically cold Novie airmass. 

I morbidly want 1976 to repeat itself....just to watch the hilarious meltdowns....early December 1976 had a historically cold airmass around Dec 2-4  after a frigid (and relatively snowless) November....2 days later, a massive rainstorm with 2 inches of rain happened...lol. Then right after the rainstorm, highs were in the teens.

The season eventually ended up pretty good...esp for eastern areas, but the frigid and relatively snowless conditions early on would be a hoot on here. We kind of got a preview of that in 2010-2011....we had cold and then a few cutters mixed in early on and there were some people melting down. But they whined their way to a 3 foot snowpack a month and a half later.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I morbidly want 1976 to repeat itself....just to watch the hilarious meltdowns....early December 1976 had a historically cold airmass around Dec 2-4  after a frigid (and relatively snowless) November....2 days later, a massive rainstorm with 2 inches of rain happened...lol. Then right after the rainstorm, highs were in the teens.

The season eventually ended up pretty good...esp for eastern areas, but the frigid and relatively snowless conditions early on would be a hoot on here. We kind of got a preview of that in 2010-2011....we had cold and then a few cutters mixed in early on and there were some people melting down. But they whined their way to a 3 foot snowpack a month and a half later.

Did winter of 1980-81 play out that way too?

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

You want to slow time? My brother told me his last 6 months seemed like a decade. Mine was abrupt. We will celebrate together after the deed is done. One on one dinner 

Definitely!  You’re right about time standing still. My wife keeps reminding me every day when I complain.  Few complain about life post retirement.

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Did winter of 1980-81 play out that way too?

'80-'81 never got good...except for a brief headfake on 11/17-18 with the solid November snowstorm....but then it just got cold and mostly dry. When the pattern got wet again in February 1981....we absolutely furnaced and most of the precip was rain.