RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 58 minutes ago, Whineminster said: would be nice to drop a few inches during the Pats blow out win over the cowgirls. Bet the dogs, pats inflate the line. They haven’t seen an offense like this yet. Well, they did sort of...the Ravens, and what happened? Sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man euro is quite the wind event on thanksgiving. Postpone climbing on the roof to put up Christmas lights after dinner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: A lot of you turks probably have little memory of Dec 1989. I have not felt colder than I did working outside on the Thames River in New London Ct. So heres the 89 5H and todays GEFS EPS On 11/18/2019 at 12:46 PM, mreaves said: My greatest fear is the December 1989/January 1990 duet. -17.3 in December 1989 at BTV to +11.8 in January 1990. The high temp for the month of December was 41 on the 12/31. I am always in fear of the rubber band snap back. https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/Dec1989.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Give me these days. Mid 50s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How strong? How many turkeys down? Looked like 850 winds were 60-70kts. I don’t know what mixing is, but usually CAA gets close to mixing 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If we are getting EPO ridging then trough propensity is in the plains. With the -NAO it will help keep things under us. I don’t worry about flow speed. I don’t need a block buster. Just want some winter events. Ya no blocking or Davis straits ridging and we would probably need to hope for nothing amplified and maybe an overrunning event and a scooter high. Otherwise it’s the all familiar cold/dry mild/wet favored look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya no blocking or Davis straits ridging and we would probably need to hope for nothing amplified and maybe an overrunning event and a scooter high. Otherwise it’s the all familiar cold/dry mild/wet favored look Biggest fear heading into winter is a continuation of the 80’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 December starts with a -NAO and then it looks like it weakens as we go deeper into month. But EPO builds. Who knows though...esp WRT NAO. Those blocks can be really nasty to forecast the timing of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya no blocking or Davis straits ridging and we would probably need to hope for nothing amplified and maybe an overrunning event and a scooter high. Otherwise it’s the all familiar cold/dry mild/wet favored look It can still work, I’m not trying to say it can’t, just that the NAO is our friend with these patterns. But you know me, I think we overrate the NAO. As long as pacific is ok we can make things work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It can still work, I’m not trying to say it can’t, just that the NAO is our friend with these patterns. But you know me, I think we overrate the NAO. As long as pacific is ok we can make things work. After 2015, why would you want anything but a pac driven pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 The height falls on th Euro are very impressive for Saturday. Don't discount this yet interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya no blocking or Davis straits ridging and we would probably need to hope for nothing amplified and maybe an overrunning event and a scooter high. Otherwise it’s the all familiar cold/dry mild/wet favored look You aint smelling mild in that pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It can still work, I’m not trying to say it can’t, just that the NAO is our friend with these patterns. But you know me, I think we overrate the NAO. As long as pacific is ok we can make things work. Scott I know what your saying and I value it . Half your responses are like playing parents to those who can’t swallow the medicine. I understand what increases our odds near coastal plain and what doesn’t and you stated it well . Probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You aint smelling mild in that pattern Agree , poor word choice But amped would be favorable for congrats Cleveland / Detroit when any potential blocking abates I’m intrigued by Sunday . Watching pats on phone from Temple/ New Ipswich,NH perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scott I know what your saying and I value it . Half your responses are like playing parents to those who can’t swallow the medicine. I understand what increases our odds near coastal plain and what doesn’t and you stated it well . Probabilities I don't mean to come across as unclear so my apologies if so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: After 2015, why would you want anything but a pac driven pattern. Heh, the 1980s had plenty of -EPO years that were garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looked like 850 winds were 60-70kts. I don’t know what mixing is, but usually CAA gets close to mixing 850. Macy’s Day parade floats blown into buildings in NYC, with float holders airborne flung into trees and windows ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Heh, the 1980s had plenty of -EPO years that were garbage. I thought ‘pac’ is both epo and pna, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Give me these days. Mid 50s. Cloudy windy dank perfect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I thought ‘pac’ is both epo and pna, no? PNA domain covers over to Rockies I believe . Ridge centered over Rockies is usually favorable to a trough in east IIRC and is more favorable for east coast snow lovers w amped lows (compared to something amped in -EPO we usually need some block to squash- redevelop something under us or better to cash in with overrunning and well timed highs A little Davis straits ridging or a little -Nao gives us much more opportunities for favorable outcomes in coastal plain IIRC in many -EPO’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Heh, the 1980s had plenty of -EPO years that were garbage. Sucks we dont have NPO data for Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 My company just came to an agreement with Sudbury and Franklin for road forecasting. So I'll be regularly forecasting in Massachusetts going forward. Pretty cool. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Interesting split on NAO and AO on the GEFS LR, especially the AO. More of a concencus on a positive PNA.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: So we looking at a black ice situation tonight? Heads up Jerry get those trax out. Yup. But thankfully tomorrow is Saturday so late exit from my bed...7 more months but who’s counting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 The nam (ya I know) has threaded the proverbial needle a couple times in its last 4 runs for Ray over to Me / and far northern Mass. Not counting on that at all but it shows some potential . Would think N .ORH county into Monads gotta still watch . Hubbdave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cloudy windy dank perfect? Didn't say perfect. Not dank at all, was only cloudy when I was out. Better then 39F and mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Got screwed down on the coast with the Dec 15th 89 storm. I am not seeing huge snows with that flow but things can pop. Yeah remember getting approx 4 inches of mixed precip. That stayed till Jan due to the frigid conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: PNA domain covers over to Rockies I believe . Ridge centered over Rockies is usually favorable to a trough in east IIRC and is more favorable for east coast snow lovers w amped lows (compared to something amped in -EPO we usually need some block to squash- redevelop something under us or better to cash in with overrunning and well timed highs A little Davis straits ridging or a little -Nao gives us much more opportunities for favorable outcomes in coastal plain IIRC in many -EPO’s Yea I know where the pna is located. My point is when the pac is mentioned, I always think we are discussing both the epo and pna domains...to an extent. So when Scooter says, “pac drives the bus” I assume it’s not just epo but the pna as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 What I have found with the EPO dataset I have since 1948 is we get a loading pattern often. These huge drops in EPO dislodge so much cold it bleeds into the US and very often not always translate to snowy cold times here in New England. The correlation with cold with EPO is our largest telleconnection correlation. Get us the cold like we always say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah remember getting approx 4 inches of mixed precip. That stayed till Jan due to the frigid conditions. Just to touch quickly on a storm I got screwed on Royally was 93 Superstorm what a tough one to swallow in SE Mass when Atlanta is left w more snow than you after a change to heavy rain in evening and 3” of cement that I told my neighbor on vacation I would shovel . Literally 3” that required a axe. Max depth was about 11 Prior to the rains. If only I had a car back then . Hideous that and December 92 was a serious shiat sandwich handed to KTAN when areas just W /NW got buried . Thank goodness I went with my dad that next day and we went to diamond hill (just a burial there in 92’) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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