moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 BOX in for its pre-season warm-up. Nothing to see here folks. Pitchers and catchers only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 EPS looks ugly to start December on the 00z run. Nasty pacific. Let’s hope it’s wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 -3.5 to start the day. Lots of diamond dust last night, it looked like glitter was falling out the windows 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, alex said: -3.5 to start the day. Lots of diamond dust last night, it looked like glitter was falling out the windows You can see it on your cam now in the morning sun. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks ugly to start December on the 00z run. Nasty pacific. Let’s hope it’s wrong. Ugly AK vortex. Yeah we def hope that is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 LOL Tobin Br. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Oh well. Hopefully the winter of 2020-21 turns out better. Time for dews I guess. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Coastal front is waffling over me. Was in the 20s last night. Bounced to 36 and now 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Close the blinds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Oh well. Hopefully the winter of 2020-21 turns out better. Time for dews I guess. I'm sorry for those folks who uninstalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Close the blindsIt's ovah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 I'm curious what the KPS will have this morning. Either the EPS will get heaved further than a GTG brewski or there will be a lot of fear in the posts. The EPS could easily look more favorable at 12z so no one should start panicking yet. It's fun to play with the emotions of the easily manipulated though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Oh well. Hopefully the winter of 2020-21 turns out better. Time for dews I guess. Yeah I'm 80% of the way to canceling winter. Just want to see the 12z suite. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Thanksgiving week still has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks ugly to start December on the 00z run. Nasty pacific. Let’s hope it’s wrong. I couldn't take any more "10 more days" posts from last year. I feel much more confident in these 14-days outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm 80% of the way to canceling winter. Just want to see the 12z suite. Nice cast. Let's see who bites on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm 80% of the way to canceling winter. Just want to see the 12z suite. Didn’t the 12z look great yesterday? Seems like every year we go thru this with flip flops and people lose their marbles over run to run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Brrrrr... Island Pond, VT (ISPV1) -11F SLK -9F BML -6F EFK -5F HIE -4F MVL -4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm curious what the KPS will have this morning. Either the EPS will get heaved further than a GTG brewski or there will be a lot of fear in the posts. The EPS could easily look more favorable at 12z so no one should start panicking yet. It's fun to play with the emotions of the easily manipulated though. The fact weeklies were kind of blah in December gives it some credit. But yeah who knows. It looks like we have some cold to play with end of this month and early December anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Didn’t the 12z look great yesterday? Seems like every year we go thru this with flip flops and people lose their marbles over run to run . Yes. That's why I want to see 12z today. If it's similar to 00z, then I'll be issuing a winter cancel post shortly after. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 13.3F for my low. Fake cold for sure as a local PWS only had 17F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. That's why I want to see 12z today. If it's similar to 00z, then I'll be issuing a winter cancel post shortly after. Dude, your kidding right? Lolol. If your not, your gonna be in an insane asylum by the new year..lol I on the other hand, I am pretty pumped for this season. We have a LONG way to go. 4 months of torture..hehe, I mean if exciting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Dude, your kidding right? Lolol. If your not, your gonna be in an insane asylum by the new year..lol I on the other hand, I am pretty pumped for this season. We have a LONG way to go. 4 months of torture..hehe, I mean if exciting weather. He’s very serious. I had to call him yesterday to make sure he was going to be ok. I didn’t like what I saw. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 I've mentioned this several times ... since last spring actually, how we've been dealing with odd ( at times eerie ) tendency for the models to establish hardened trends .. even seemingly footed in global indicators thus offering credence, only to be dealt reverses, with frustrating frequency. Personally I think it's a model artifact of Global Warming; the changing circulation perhaps exposes that these models have 'performance norms' that break down in different eddy circumstances previously unknown, because these broader scaled scaffolds were stable comparing previous decades and now they are in flux. But that's of course speculative... Point is, we are still dealing with that in my estimation. I keep seeing this happening, more so than I remember in the 1990 to 2005-10 era, where model "pattern error" ( sort of a different metric to event level detail ) might be increasing. Again speculative... The Euro EPS flip flopping like that smacks of this though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've mentioned this several times ... since last spring actually, how we've been dealing with odd ( at times eerie ) tendency for the models to establish hardened trends .. even seemingly footed in global indicators thus offering credence, only to be dealt reverses, with frustrating frequency. Personally I think it's a model artifact of Global Warming; the changing circulation perhaps exposes that these models have 'performance norms' that break down in different eddy circumstances previously unknown, because these broader scaled scaffolds were stable comparing previous decades and now they are in flux. But that's of course speculative... Point is, we are still dealing with that in my estimation. I keep seeing this happening, more so than I remember in the 1990 to 2005-10 era, where model "pattern error" ( sort of a different metric to event level detail ) might be increasing. Again speculative... The Euro EPS flip flopping like that smacks of this though. I also think the various indices (ENSO/PDO/AO, etc.) are resulting in different outcomes and we should be very cautious when we use analogs older than about 30 years. There are some warm blobs in the oceans that seem to hang around from year to year. The gulf stream is also warming more quickly than other parts of the ocean (more bombogenesis and higher precip outcomes? we're already seeing it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks ugly to start December on the 00z run. Nasty pacific. Let’s hope it’s wrong. All the models are starting to show that. Another false hope ? We haven't had real blocking in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: All the models are starting to show that. Another false hope ? We haven't had real blocking in years. I dont know about the other models, but the CFS doesn't do well until you're already at the end of the month prior to the month it's forecasting for lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Dude, your kidding right? Lolol. If your not, your gonna be in an insane asylum by the new year..lol I on the other hand, I am pretty pumped for this season. We have a LONG way to go. 4 months of torture..hehe, I mean if exciting weather. Better luck next winter, pal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Once the AK death vortex shows up, it doesn’t go away till morch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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