RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Cold start to December on EPS. Active too? Split flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 4 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: I meant for SNE, it has been a bad run. Not complaining, just facts. What part of the snow expectations in SNE require your image be interpreted as a failure in the first place ? good luck their zippy lol No, you got ur facts turned around. That's an epic success. J/k, I get the troll effort - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Saranac lake last night, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree the big +PNA is the best for big storm potential. The problem with this discussion for me ( considering you both care and asked for what I think.. heh ) is that you're all wrong... Every one of yaz - It's not +PNA this or -NAO that ... or +EPO this or that... Those are scalar values that don't mean shit. ( I know y'all know this but it doesn't hurt to remind - ) It's the modulation of those indexes that matters, because when they are in modality ...that means there is mass changing in domain spaces = correction and restoring. That's your event(s). This is how it works, at all scales and dimensions. We just use +PNA and NAO and AO because they are planetary in scale/dimension so they are more identifiable/forcing as far as necessity for said correction/restoring event(s). Truth be told, you could teleconnect cool air over a sun-warming ( mode change at the surface) bubble as likely to cause a cumulus cloud and nail the prediction based off that micro teleconnector. By the way ... -EPO is bad for us on its own. There needs to be that lag correlation with the negative phase states of the EPO ...where the block collapses ( usually within a 3 to 5 day period), and as it does it descends in latitude and relays into a +PNAP orientation with western N/A ridge and concomitant eastern trough evolution - again...that sets into motion a restoration event and usually given the -EPO relay into + PNAP it's going to be a cold oriented system. -EPOs that don't relay don't do as much for us because the natural R-wave count/spatial layout usually rolls up ridging along the eastern Seaboard. But... through it all, guess what is consistent? The NON-consistency of the modes ... That is a description above of a changing hemispheric quadrature. Static indices in general are not good. Once a +PNA is in place and non modulating... well, just look at the 12z Euro. It has a shallow amplitude +PNA that is unchanging and so the D4 looks like it was mapped on D10 ... BOOOORRRRRINNNnnng 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 What a Zone forecast for mid November. Tonight...Clear, cold with lows around 1 below. Light and variable winds. My heating bill will suck this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The problem with this discussion for me ( considering you both care and asked for what I think.. heh ) is that you're all wrong... Every one of yaz - It's not +PNA this or -NAO that ... or +EPO this or that... Those are scalar values that don't mean shit. ( I know y'all know this but it doesn't hurt to remind - ) It's the modulation of those indexes that matters, because when they are in modality ...that means there is mass changing in domain spaces = correction and restoring. That's your event(s). This is how it works, at all scales and dimensions. We just use +PNA and NAO and AO because they planetary in scale/dimension so they are more identifiable/forcing as far as necessity for said correction/restoring event(s). By the way ... -EPO is bad for us on its own. However, there tends to be a lag correlation on the negative phase states of the EPO ...where the block collapses ( usually in the 3 to 5 day period), and as it does it descends in latitude and relays into a +PNAP orientation with western N/A ridge and concomitant eastern trough evolution - again...that sets into motion a restoration event and usually given the -EPO relay into + PNAP it's going to be a cold oriented system. -EPOs that don't relay don't do as much for us because the nature R-wave count/spatial layout usually rolls up ridging along the eastern Seaboard. But... through it all, guess what is consistent? The NON-consistency of the modes ... That is all a changing hemispheric quadrature. Static indices in general are not good. Once a +PNA is in place and non modulating... well, just look at the 12z Euro. It has a shallow amplitude +PNA that is unchanging and so the D4 looks like it was mapped on D10 ... BOOOORRRRRINNNnnng I actually read that fully, and even more surprising I actually understood it lol...thank you for that Higgins. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 18Z GFS backs more qpf into W/NNE. Not sure how accurate this ZR product is on Weatherbell but there is a .83" or freezing rain in there. Here is side by side comparsion with 12Z map. I don’t see .83”, but I see .51”and .61” on those maps, but not .83”. Think you read them wrong..those numbers are small so it’s tough to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t see .83”, but I see .51”and .61” on those maps, but not .83”. Think you read them wrong..those numbers are small so it’s tough to read. I wouldn't trust those products from the GFS model... Certainly highly suspect, as it has genetic linear for having bad planetary boundary layer ( lowest level ) thermal handling in multiple types of air masses. Plus, it's grid isn't really the best resolution for picking up low level cold layers on top of the former issues with confidence; neither lends to trusting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: See .... ? Snow88 and Greg love each other - They live together........ 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: What happened to you as a child? lol. Fell on his head off the changing table. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: They live together........ Fell on his head off the changing table. Fell off the table Into a cooler of ice. The warm dews melted the ice (saved him) and gave us this gift that keeps giving 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Pretty normal. It’s mid November. I’m not minding one bit. People are talking about mid-January conditions. -7 departures and no snow, that is epic. Not in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: People are talking about mid-January conditions. -7 departures and no snow, that is epic. Not in a good way. But it’s not Mid January. It’s -7 departures in November... Early and mid November nonetheless...that doesn’t always lead to snow even in mid winter timetables; let alone in an Autumn month as we are in now. Why are you so hell bent on saying this is some kind of fail?? It’s not!! Especially not for SNE. Late December through mid March, then you’d have a very good point...but not now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Outside of ski resorts, I think most of us would rather be +7 if we knew it'd be snowless. Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: Outside of ski resorts, I think most of us would rather be +7 if we knew it'd be snowless. Just sayin But it’s not an epic fail or fail at all..which is what you are saying. Please...do yourself a favor, and go move to Georgia...it’s nice and humid there all the time in the warm months..and has benign winters. you’d be perfect there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 It must be a sensor issue at KBOS. The site location hasn't changed even though I could see the increase in jet traffic at Logan as being a reason it runs high, it probably isn't. There are reliable PWS in Winthrop that are regularly 2-3 degrees colder than KBOS. I would expect those to be a degree or two warmer than Logan if anything as they're closer to the open ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But it’s not an epic fail or fail at all..which is what you are saying. Please...do yourself a favor, and go move to Georgia...it’s nice and humid there all the time in the warm months..and has benign winters. you’d be perfect there. Since you are interested in demonstrating your knowledge and teaching others.... how many Novembers have been say, -4 or less for November at BDL, and how much snow fell in those months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Since you are interested in demonstrating your knowledge and teaching others.... how many Novembers have been say, -4 or less for November at BDL, and how much snow fell in those months? Well you might have to wait 16 more days just sayin Mr Troll 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Since you are interested in demonstrating your knowledge and teaching others.... how many Novembers have been say, -4 or less for November at BDL, and how much snow fell in those months? I’m not into demonstrating any such thing. And I don’t care to go look up that data. The fact remains..November is not a winter month, and I feel that’s the way it needs to be looked at. You can keep pushing the fail idea. I’m fine with no snow yet..it’s the way it should be. A couple weeks from now, climo starts being even more favorable...I can wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Well you might have to wait 16 more days just sayin Mr Troll Yeah most decent snow events fell in the final week of the month at a place like BDL. But even in frigid Novembers, big snows are rare. November 1976 was frigid (colder than last year) and BDL had 0.4" of snow. 1951 was coldest November on record and had 2.0 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah most decent snow events fell in the final week of the month at a place like BDL. But even in frigid Novembers, big snows are rare. November 1976 was frigid (colder than last year) and BDL had 0.4" of snow. 1951 was coldest November on record and had 2.0 inches. What's the average snowfall for BDL in November? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Well you might have to wait 16 more days just sayin Mr Troll I wasn't asking about this month. =p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: What's the average snowfall for BDL in November? Thanks 1.8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 BIrv, why did you leave the boards years back? Just wondering. You always had the knowledge but you seem really jaded now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: BIrv, why did you leave the boards years back? Just wondering. You always had the knowledge but you seem really jaded now. Thanks but I always defer to the pros. Some of the posts, even back into Oct.,have been way over the top optimistic, unrealistic, weenie and there is no forum backlash. I try to be realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 LOL at SLK. Went from 21.2* at 4:00 to -0.4* 3 hours later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah most decent snow events fell in the final week of the month at a place like BDL. But even in frigid Novembers, big snows are rare. November 1976 was frigid (colder than last year) and BDL had 0.4" of snow. 1951 was coldest November on record and had 2.0 inches. This is amazing to me for Nov even for the great white north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Thanks but I always defer to the pros. Some of the posts, even back into Oct.,have been way over the top optimistic, unrealistic, weenie and there is no forum backlash. I try to be realistic. Yea ok. You are reduced to trolling. Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This is amazing to me for Nov even for the great white north None of those max temps are above normal, though the 41F may be right at normal by that time. Lot of low diurnal changes there though. 9F at both the local PWS and MVL right now. Single digits at 7:30pm... yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah most decent snow events fell in the final week of the month at a place like BDL. But even in frigid Novembers, big snows are rare. November 1976 was frigid (colder than last year) and BDL had 0.4" of snow. 1951 was coldest November on record and had 2.0 inches. Seems to clear up the idea that big cold means big snowstorms in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Seems to clear up the idea that big cold means big snowstorms in November. And that was exactly my point to Dr. Troll, ahh I mean Dr. Dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now