November 2019 discussion

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I see some cold and low thickness for them

I was looking more before that. Could be some slop to end. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was looking more before that. Could be some slop to end. 

New 6Z Euro has a backside ULL event for many on the west side. Would not be surprised to see some snow with that. Just sometimes these cold 5H pools can produce. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

New 6Z Euro has a backside ULL event for many on the west side. Would not be surprised to see some snow with that. Just sometimes these cold 5H pools can produce. 

Would help to be above 2k for that though. It's mild still below 925. We don't have a fresh supply of cold behind the departing low. 

[Ginx snewx]

SLK -8 , damn

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well ya. Till about 1am or so before real precip shield arrives 

It will be exciting watching where the virga/rain line sets up

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would help to be above 2k for that though. It's mild still below 925. We don't have a fresh supply of cold behind the departing low. 

Will be watching closely as there definitely is a mid level surge of cold air. Damn on the Hurricane force gusts OBX

[HoarfrostHubb]

Gonna be a nice blow for some fishes.  
 

AckWaves and Phil and James could be a rockin.  

[mreaves]

56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

SLK -8 , damn

3F here at deer camp this morning. Glad I don’t hunt and could stay inside by the fire this morning. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah ... this thing is challenging one's patience in not believing there isn't some kind of unforeseeable agency at work, deliberately doing this shit just to f with people - 

We're headed for a 32.1er ...undoubtedly, after NWS' has committed to advisory ice.   That way, the idea of this being a colder lowest level type of event verifies, all right ... right into meaninglessness.  

Then, we go into thirteen days of 0 interesting anything despite previous vagaries of the models hinting hope.  Also, engineered deliberately to look like there were going to be chances. It's like said agent couldn't just stop at being douchebag with this nearer termed, big bag of wave interference waste of time synoptics.. It couldn't withstand the temptation to really rip sore butts by then summarily removing any events from the deeper vision too.  Well, hell... at least I won't have to suffer the indignity of having it snow prodigiously 'just because' I'm leaving town over Thanksgiving.   

Kidding of course, but that was a particularly irritatingly boring overnight series of operational runs imho. Oy.  Altho, the mean of the EPS seemed a little more encouraging I suppose. But as I didn't/don't see that product's polar-stereo graphic mean, so I'm not sure where it's setting up blocking nodes - if any.  Just the free blend that TT offers up looked like a slightly amped PNAP for the conus... If so, that should average S/W frequency and at least cold air in reach.  

But other than that.. tough series of charts for storm/entertainment enthusiasts to click through.  Yuck.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

You know you've hit the good season when the monthly discussion thread is 100 pages mid-way through the month.

mm...  That's not the good season, imho.  The good season is when the season f'n gets good.   

This endless blathering of pointless minutia by psychotropically enslaved phone-zombies is emptied of value, and many pages of it is a special kind of hell - but hey, at least Apple and Android or wealthy, huh.

But, that's just the way I feel about a dumb-down "Twit" ospheric ambit of a cultural, more and more so pedestrian'ed by morons unwittingly in wait for the lights to turn out before they realize that they've been stupefied to the brink of their very ability to survive in the absence of these devices.

Seriously, the whole world is digital ... too digital to be safe or representative of any kind of foresight and provisional awareness of the future.  Nothing's in print, certainly not ubiquitously enough. When the Carrington Event hits again ( and recent research has exposed that not only are they more frequent from our particular start than previously thought, our star is also capable of far greater storm magnitudes ), no one is going to be able to make potable water.  90 % of the population in these Western cultures, does not really know how to live off the land ( and that's the whole spectrum of provision resourcing, flora successfully with the Earth, supplemented by successful fauna ), nor has much of any clue what to do next - seeing as we are multi-generation buried inside the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution bubble of fragile conveniences. F! we only think it's robust, because time creates a faux security, as though it is somehow more resilient than it really is. 

No washing machines...  No dryers.  No toasters. No refrigerators.  No lights.  Most likely ...no home heating for the majority.  No phones.  No satellite, nor all the subsequent codependencies societies of modern ilk have become completely and utterly reliant upon.  No big medicine or pharma...   

Each one of those "No   xxx"  is a header for a spectrum of hells beneath them, too.  Man, ... it strikes me in a nervy way as someone who thinks about this shit an awful lot, whenever someone connects the concepts of 'good' with that vapidity of all that really is NOT offered by these conceits of technology, and the assumptions and entitlements that come with it all. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm...  That's not the good season, imho.  The good season is when the season f'n gets good.   

This endless blathering of pointless minutia by psychotropically enslaved phone-zombies is emptied of value, and many pages of it is a special kind of hell - but hey, at least Apple and Android or wealthy, huh.

But, that's just the way I feel about a dumb-down "Twit" ospheric ambit of a cultural, more and more so pedestrian'ed by morons unwittingly in wait for the lights to turn out before they realize that they've been stupefied to the brink of their very ability to survive in the absence of these devices.

Seriously, the whole world is digital ... too digital to be safe or representative of any kind of foresight and provisional awareness of the future.  Nothing's in print, certainly not ubiquitously enough. When the Carrington Event hits again ( and recent research has exposed that not only are they more frequent from our particular start than previously thought, our star is also capable of far greater storm magnitudes ), no one is going to be able to make potable water.  90 % of the population in these Western cultures, does not really know how to live off the land ( and that's the whole spectrum of provision resourcing, flora successfully with the Earth, supplemented by successful fauna ), nor has much of any clue what to do next - seeing as we are multi-generation buried inside the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution bubble of fragile conveniences. F! we only think it's robust, because time creates a faux security, as though it is somehow more resilient than it really is. 

No washing machines...  No dryers.  No toasters. No refrigerators.  No lights.  Most likely ...no home heating for the majority.  No phones.  No satellite, nor all the subsequent codependencies societies of modern ilk have become completely and utterly reliant upon.  No big medicine or pharma...   

Each one of those "No   xxx"  is a header for a spectrum of hells beneath them, too.  Man, ... it strikes me in a nervy way as someone who thinks about this shit an awful lot, whenever someone connects the concepts of 'good' with that vapidity of all that really is NOT offered by these social-media platforms. 

Honestly, this is true.....and I am part of it too. It's so easy to post on the fly and have vapid comment. Like Erin Andrews on the side line.  I certainly try to make my posts during this time of year, more valuable when appropriate. 

[TheBudMan]

mm...  That's not the good season, imho.  The good season is when the season f'n gets good.   
This endless blathering of pointless minutia by psychotropically enslaved phone-zombies is emptied of value, and many pages of it is a special kind of hell - but hey, at least Apple and Android or wealthy, huh.
But, that's just the way I feel about a dumb-down "Twit" ospheric ambit of a cultural, more and more so pedestrian'ed by morons unwittingly in wait for the lights to turn out before they realize that they've been stupefied to the brink of their very ability to survive in the absence of these devices.
Seriously, the whole world is digital ... too digital to be safe or representative of any kind of foresight and provisional awareness of the future.  Nothing's in print, certainly not ubiquitously enough. When the Carrington Event hits again ( and recent research has exposed that not only are they more frequent from our particular start than previously thought, our star is also capable of far greater storm magnitudes ), no one is going to be able to make potable water.  90 % of the population in these Western cultures, does not really know how to live off the land ( and that's the whole spectrum of provision resourcing, flora successfully with the Earth, supplemented by successful fauna ), nor has much of any clue what to do next - seeing as we are multi-generation buried inside the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution bubble of fragile conveniences. F! we only think it's robust, because time creates a faux security, as though it is somehow more resilient than it really is. 
No washing machines...  No dryers.  No toasters. No refrigerators.  No lights.  Most likely ...no home heating for the majority.  No phones.  No satellite, nor all the subsequent codependencies societies of modern ilk have become completely and utterly reliant upon.  No big medicine or pharma...   
Each one of those "No   xxx"  is a header for a spectrum of hells beneath them, too.  Man, ... it strikes me in a nervy way as someone who thinks about this shit an awful lot, whenever someone connects the concepts of 'good' with that vapidity of all that really is NOT offered by these conceits of technology, and the assumptions and entitlements that come with it all. 

Breakfast mushrooms for Tip ? WTF

[Torch Tiger]

Cold and dry

[CoastalWx]

The high res models almost have a semi-tropical look with low pressure embedded in a massively broad area of low pressure, going near and east of the Cape. 

[OSUmetstud]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm...  That's not the good season, imho.  The good season is when the season f'n gets good.   

This endless blathering of pointless minutia by psychotropically enslaved phone-zombies is emptied of value, and many pages of it is a special kind of hell - but hey, at least Apple and Android or wealthy, huh.

But, that's just the way I feel about a dumb-down "Twit" ospheric ambit of a cultural, more and more so pedestrian'ed by morons unwittingly in wait for the lights to turn out before they realize that they've been stupefied to the brink of their very ability to survive in the absence of these devices.

Seriously, the whole world is digital ... too digital to be safe or representative of any kind of foresight and provisional awareness of the future.  Nothing's in print, certainly not ubiquitously enough. When the Carrington Event hits again ( and recent research has exposed that not only are they more frequent from our particular start than previously thought, our star is also capable of far greater storm magnitudes ), no one is going to be able to make potable water.  90 % of the population in these Western cultures, does not really know how to live off the land ( and that's the whole spectrum of provision resourcing, flora successfully with the Earth, supplemented by successful fauna ), nor has much of any clue what to do next - seeing as we are multi-generation buried inside the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution bubble of fragile conveniences. F! we only think it's robust, because time creates a faux security, as though it is somehow more resilient than it really is. 

No washing machines...  No dryers.  No toasters. No refrigerators.  No lights.  Most likely ...no home heating for the majority.  No phones.  No satellite, nor all the subsequent codependencies societies of modern ilk have become completely and utterly reliant upon.  No big medicine or pharma...   

Each one of those "No   xxx"  is a header for a spectrum of hells beneath them, too.  Man, ... it strikes me in a nervy way as someone who thinks about this shit an awful lot, whenever someone connects the concepts of 'good' with that vapidity of all that really is NOT offered by these conceits of technology, and the assumptions and entitlements that come with it all. 

Thanks Ted.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Drunken tirade?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, TheBudMan said:

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm...  That's not the good season, imho.  The good season is when the season f'n gets good.   
This endless blathering of pointless minutia by psychotropically enslaved phone-zombies is emptied of value, and many pages of it is a special kind of hell - but hey, at least Apple and Android or wealthy, huh.
But, that's just the way I feel about a dumb-down "Twit" ospheric ambit of a cultural, more and more so pedestrian'ed by morons unwittingly in wait for the lights to turn out before they realize that they've been stupefied to the brink of their very ability to survive in the absence of these devices.
Seriously, the whole world is digital ... too digital to be safe or representative of any kind of foresight and provisional awareness of the future.  Nothing's in print, certainly not ubiquitously enough. When the Carrington Event hits again ( and recent research has exposed that not only are they more frequent from our particular start than previously thought, our star is also capable of far greater storm magnitudes ), no one is going to be able to make potable water.  90 % of the population in these Western cultures, does not really know how to live off the land ( and that's the whole spectrum of provision resourcing, flora successfully with the Earth, supplemented by successful fauna ), nor has much of any clue what to do next - seeing as we are multi-generation buried inside the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution bubble of fragile conveniences. F! we only think it's robust, because time creates a faux security, as though it is somehow more resilient than it really is. 
No washing machines...  No dryers.  No toasters. No refrigerators.  No lights.  Most likely ...no home heating for the majority.  No phones.  No satellite, nor all the subsequent codependencies societies of modern ilk have become completely and utterly reliant upon.  No big medicine or pharma...   
Each one of those "No   xxx"  is a header for a spectrum of hells beneath them, too.  Man, ... it strikes me in a nervy way as someone who thinks about this shit an awful lot, whenever someone connects the concepts of 'good' with that vapidity of all that really is NOT offered by these conceits of technology, and the assumptions and entitlements that come with it all. 

Breakfast mushrooms for Tip ? WTF

Lol - hahaha....    One should read that with a soup-con of tongue-in-cheek, cynical incredulity, btw    It's more dark humor, which never conveys too well in writing. 

It's snark not intended to offend by the way... Scott get's what I mean.  

Not to be dishonest by implication, hey ...I engage in the time waste.  I have written a novel, currently in pre-press at a publishing house ...contracted and the whole work. I have a slow era at my job these days, which is stable - I should be using this opportunity to start a new writing project, and continue.  But I'm stuck in a complacency rut ( of sorts..) and don't have any ideas - other than taking pot-shots at cultural observation, that is... But, I spend far too much time involved in here - no question - when the better valor of my energies would probably find better virtue elsewhere.   I mean ...no offence, really.  There's nothing wrong with engaging in this sort of "vapidity" - sometimes we need a break and it's a good diversion, and all that. But, spending too much time ... in any social media platform, is a problem in society in general to be honest.  But that's a separate subject matter for a different forum-ilk. 

[CoastalWx]

Can't disagree with ya, John. In any case...not to derail..but NAM is quiet feisty with this low coming up. I do wonder if we can get a decent glaze going interior and higher el. Kevin will want me to extend that to TOL, but not sure the wetbulbing is enough for more than a touch of glaze?

[Typhoon Tip]

Back to the weather...  ( sorry )

Now we got a sneaky kind of separate error ( maybe ) showing up.  I noticed the Euro's detailed surface low track bumped E a bit on the 00z cycle.  The 06z Good-For-Shit model also did that... Now, the 12z NAM also has it's surface low wobbling pretty far E of Cape Cod when passing our latitudes here in SNE.  Meanwhile, it's pummeling eastern half with terminating CCB rains and [ probably ] IP/zr rain mixed inland.  

The problem with that is that we might actually be looking at a late correct east, over all, and since the NAM typically expands west Atlantic cyclone influence too far W/N, it's 12z QPF could very well be vastly overdone ... That's probably going to be true for this particular Not-Achieving-Model, anyway, and could be considered a separate matter.  

Or, it's all noise and the low will bump back west here.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Back to the weather...  ( sorry )

Now we got a sneaky kind of separate error ( maybe ) showing up.  I noticed the Euro's detailed surface low track bumped E a bit on the 00z cycle.  The 06z Good-For-Shit model also did that... Now, the 12z NAM also has it's surface low wobbling pretty far E of Cape Cod when passing our latitudes here in SNE.  Meanwhile, it's pummeling eastern half with terminating CCB rains and [ probably ] IP/zr rain mixed inland.  

The problem with that is that we might actually be looking at a late correct east, over all, and since the NAM typically expands west Atlantic cyclone influence too far W/N, it's 12z QPF could very well be vastly overdone ... That's probably going to be true for this particular Not-Achieving-Model, anyway, and could be considered a separate matter.  

Or, it's all noise and the low will bump back west here.  

EPS looked like a decent CCB in ern areas too. Almost a bit of a dumbelling look with either a meso low, or one of those potent low level warm fronts pushing onto the Cape, separating due east winds from north winds near the coast. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have written a novel, currently in pre-press at a publishing house ...contracted and the whole work. 

Are you collaborating with James?

[powderfreak]

It’s f’in cold.  Another single digit morning and another -15 type departure before tomorrow morning shatters records near 0F again.  

This month has been obscene.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looked like a decent CCB in ern areas too. Almost a bit of a dumbelling look with either a meso low, or one of those potent low level warm fronts pushing onto the Cape, separating due east winds from north winds near the coast. 

Yeah... I don't know why the NAM 'oblongs' the low west to east like that ... "dumb-belling" as you say.  You think that's real..?

Thing is, the 00z Euro looked like it bumped E too so I'm wondering if we should be tossing that... 

Either way, the circulation is broad, so... NAM error or not, it may be large enough to get bands rotated into central and eastern areas even in an east position. 

Btw, I was just looking at the FOUS grid in ALB, and I think those T1 to T2 sounding profiles there probably are jammed into central Mass ...Worcester Hills and maybe western Middlesex. I don't think Logans is very good to use because that 05/04 wind direction at 30 kts is mostly likely contaminating the lower thickness with marine -  Plus, the QPF clown maps really want to flip the NW arc to salmon as it is, and given to the notion that the lowest levels probably are even colder than even the higher resolution runs have it ( by a tick or two ) I think lends some to a freezing potential in the interior.  we'll see I guess.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are you collaborating with James?

Huh... not sure what you mean? 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I don't know why the NAM 'oblongs' the low west to east like that ... "dumb-belling" as you say.  You think that's real..?

Thing is, the 00z Euro looked like it bumped E too so I'm wondering if we should be tossing that... 

Either way, the circulation is broad, so... NAM error or not, it may be large enough to get bands rotated into central and eastern areas even in an east position. 

Btw, I was just looking at the FOUS grid in ALB, and I think those T1 to T2 sounding profiles there probably are jammed into central Mass ...Worcester Hills and maybe western Middlesex. I don't think Logans is very good to use because that 05/04 wind direction at 30 kts is mostly like contaminating the lower thickness with marine -  Plus, the QPF clown maps really want to flip the NW arc to salmon as it is, and given to the notion that the lowest levels probably are even colder than even the higher resolution runs have it ( by a tick or two ) I think lends some to a freezing potential in the interior.  we'll see I guess.

Even the euro has it, but much further east vs NAM. We'll see what the rest of 12z offers. 

[ORH_wxman]

November departures so far:

ORH: -6.6

PVD: -6.0

MHT: -6.2

CON: -6.3

BDL: -4.8

 

 

BOS: -3.5......lol

 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s f’in cold.  Another single digit morning and another -15 type departure before tomorrow morning shatters records near 0F again.  

This month has been obscene.

FWIW, MVL may be a tick or two on the weenie side. I'm not there, but I have noticed how cool it can be at times. 

 

https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/kmvl?days=364#Data

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Huh... not sure what you mean? 

He was writing a novel and I recall him asking you to collaborate. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

November departures so far:

ORH: -6.6

PVD: -6.0

MHT: -6.2

CON: -6.3

BDL: -4.8

 

 

BOS: -3.5......lol

 

Hingham until yesterday -5.9. Yesterday might be near 0 departure, but monthly still probably near -5.5 or so. Oh Logan. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

November departures so far:

ORH: -6.6

PVD: -6.0

MHT: -6.2

CON: -6.3

BDL: -4.8

 

 

BOS: -3.5......lol

 

Those numbers are harder to get to then their scalar values might immediately suggest, too ( I know you know that...just sayn' ) 

Makes me wonder how we could also not have any snow - hahaha.   Man, that's beautiful - I mean, considering that November is a seasonally deep enough month that minus f'n 6 anything in temps should be kissed more kindly with the former.